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The Senate: A Couple of Rating Changes in Favor of Democrats, but Republicans Still Favored Overall
Center for Politics ^ | January 29, 2026 | Kyle Kondik

Posted on 02/01/2026 1:35:53 PM PST by MinorityRepublican

— Despite facing what is likely to be a difficult national political environment this fall, Republicans remain favored to hold their Senate majority.

— President Trump did well among young people and nonwhite voters in 2024 for a Republican, but he has seen his approval erode with those voters. However, that doesn’t have as much of a bearing on the Senate map, with Democrats having to compete in whiter states like Iowa and Ohio.

The 2026 midterm may once again be a “Blue Wave,” as we saw in 2018, Donald Trump’s first midterm as president.

But that environment wasn’t enough for Democrats to win the Senate that year, and it may not be in 2026, either.

While Democrats have made progress over the course of the last year in positioning themselves to compete in enough Republican-held seats to win the majority, the GOP nonetheless remains favored to hold that majority.

The basic asset for Republicans, and problem for Democrats, is the structure of the Senate map. With Republicans having knocked out all of the remaining Democrats from states that voted for Donald Trump all three times he was on the ballot—a group of 25 states that accounts for half of all the Senate seats—Democrats either have to start winning in redder states again or, over time, essentially sweep all of the Senate seats in blue and purple states. — Democrats do get a couple of rating upgrades this week, with the biggest change coming in Georgia, as Sen. Jon Ossoff’s (D) race moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.

(Excerpt) Read more at centerforpolitics.org ...


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: elections; senate

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1 posted on 02/01/2026 1:35:53 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: MinorityRepublican

YES! But don’t let that get you complacent.


2 posted on 02/01/2026 1:55:06 PM PST by MtnClimber (For photos of scenery, wildlife and climbing, click on my screen name for my FR home page.)
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To: MtnClimber
One state to watch is Ohio—personally, I like Vivek Ramaswamy, outside of Donald Trump, he may be the most MAGA out of national candidates in USA. He may be full of it.

However, it looks like he may be a lousy candidate for Ohio.

Bobby Jindal was able to win in Louisiana so Vivek Ramaswamy may be able to do the same but we may be better off with a football coach from the Ohio State University if it means we can keep the Senate seat.

3 posted on 02/01/2026 2:05:37 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: MinorityRepublican

Way to early to be concerned about these claims, that are being made because of a few elections, where only one was of concern, but really changed nothing. We just entered Feb. which means there is a lot of time for things to come out that will pummel the Democrats, probably far beyond the midterms. The fraud & corruption has begun pcking at the scab of scam within the Democrat Party.


4 posted on 02/01/2026 2:17:57 PM PST by Robert DeLong
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To: MinorityRepublican

There is zero math where the democrats can take the Senate


5 posted on 02/01/2026 2:28:45 PM PST by HamiltonJay
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To: MinorityRepublican

The H1 Visas lovin Indian trashing Americans and want to flood the country with fellow Indian will be
CRUSHED .
He is a NIGHTMARE for the GOP
WE will lose every key seat because of this FRAUD >

Bobby J never trashed Americans and Promoted H! Visas .

He need to be stopped .
Trump needs to stop this Devious candidate .


6 posted on 02/01/2026 2:42:57 PM PST by ncalburt ( Gop DC Globalists are the evil )
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To: HamiltonJay

Doesn’t stop the Click Bait.


7 posted on 02/01/2026 2:44:07 PM PST by MotorCityBuck (Keep the change, you are filthy animal !)
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To: HamiltonJay

They can win in NC, GA, ME and OH. That’ll take them to 50. Murkowski may switch parties at that point.


8 posted on 02/01/2026 3:07:52 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: MinorityRepublican

Precisely. If things really go sideways, Texas as well. So much for “zero math”.

Texas should be safely Republican if Crockett is the nominee. SHOULD be. If that sleazebag Holy James Talarico wins the Rat primary, it will be close.


9 posted on 02/01/2026 3:14:47 PM PST by PermaRag (Facts, context, and more facts)
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To: PermaRag
Texas? Unlikely.

John Cornyn may be a RINO but he'll win easily.

Ted Cruz is a bit like Trump except he lacks his charisma. So that's why his races were close.

10 posted on 02/01/2026 3:18:42 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: MinorityRepublican

What if Cornyn loses the primary? :-)


11 posted on 02/01/2026 3:23:33 PM PST by PermaRag (Facts, context, and more facts)
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To: MinorityRepublican

They won’t win a Red State. President Trump is going to be all over the Campain trail ginning up enthusiasm.


12 posted on 02/01/2026 3:36:40 PM PST by cowboyusa (YESHUA IS KING OF AMERICA AND HE WILLL HAVE NO OTHER GODS BEFORE HIM!)
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To: PermaRag

After Teleroco’s collapse moments about GOD being non- binary, he is finished.


13 posted on 02/01/2026 3:38:03 PM PST by cowboyusa (YESHUA IS KING OF AMERICA AND HE WILLL HAVE NO OTHER GODS BEFORE HIM!)
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To: cowboyusa

The catch is that only OH is a red state. GA and NC are purple states. Senator Collins is from ME, a blue state.


14 posted on 02/01/2026 3:38:53 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: PermaRag

His comments, and they will be replayed over and over again.


15 posted on 02/01/2026 3:39:16 PM PST by cowboyusa (YESHUA IS KING OF AMERICA AND HE WILLL HAVE NO OTHER GODS BEFORE HIM!)
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To: PermaRag
What if Cornyn loses the primary? :-)

Different story.

We may not like Cornyn but it's better for us to support him.

We may lose with Paxton. I think we'll win with him but it will be more like one of Cruz's races. Close...

16 posted on 02/01/2026 3:40:46 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: MinorityRepublican
he may be the most MAGA out of national candidates in USA.

He is too H1B ecstatic to be truly MAGA. Kinda like Musk, only with less firepower and more curry.

I think DeSantis has enough of the MAGA issues that he could fake it if Vance doesn't go for the big chair (which he will).
17 posted on 02/01/2026 4:38:45 PM PST by Dr. Sivana ("Whatsoever he shall say to you, do ye." (John 2:5))
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To: MinorityRepublican

We need to seriously pray and vote this fall.


18 posted on 02/01/2026 5:12:08 PM PST by metmom (He who testifies to these things says, “Surely I am coming soon." Amen. Come, Lord Jesus….)
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To: MinorityRepublican

It seems that CA may be up for grabs.

Newsome is self-destructing.

Steve Hilton could do it.


19 posted on 02/01/2026 5:13:19 PM PST by metmom (He who testifies to these things says, “Surely I am coming soon." Amen. Come, Lord Jesus….)
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To: MinorityRepublican

Tolereco has a toast once his comments on GOD being non- binary get played.


20 posted on 02/01/2026 5:27:07 PM PST by cowboyusa (YESHUA IS KING OF AMERICA AND HE WILLL HAVE NO OTHER GODS BEFORE HIM!)
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