Nick Shirley Drops Another Video, and It Will Blow Your Mind

Independent journalist Nick Shirley's back at it, and his second Minnesota fraud video packs the same explosive punch as the first.

That original 42-minute bombshell ripped the lid off Somali-run daycares that are raking in millions from taxpayers while sitting empty, while the Walz administration did nothing to stop it.

The legacy media have been aggressively trying to discredit Shirley and his reporting, but he’s not backing down. In fact, he's doubling down with fresh footage that makes his first video look like small beans. Last month, after his team dug up over $110 million in shady dealings in just one day, Tim Walz clearly felt the heat. The Democrat governor bailed on his reelection bid, and Shirley took a much-deserved victory lap.

Since then, the situation has gotten worse for Walz. As we previously reported, Minnesota’s legislative auditor dropped a bombshell report this week, revealing that. Walz's Department of Human Services cooked the books, skipped controls, and blew oversight of $400 million-plus in grants. Employees faked documents to dodge audits.

I suspect this could shove Walz out the door for good—and potentially land him in cuffs.

David Hoch, co-founder of Minnesotans for Responsible Government, joined him on the ground in Minneapolis, revealing an insane truth: this fraud hits hundreds of billions nationwide. Minnesota's slice? At least $80 billion. Layers of shell companies obscure the cash trail, including 1,200 medical transport outfits in the area that do nothing while collecting taxpayer dollars.

Hoch swears by his evidence. "I have been to many of these transportation companies, and I've been time-stamping my photographs for a whole year at one facility in Minneapolis, and those vans in that parking lot had not moved one inch in an entire year. They're all still sitting there."

Reposting my analysis from early this morning:

I just realized that the key to unlocking this is the autism center fraud. Here's why:

Tracking children and autism is one of the most reliable things that is done, including in Minnesota. To operate an autism center billing Medicaid, you MUST have:

Role Credentials Experience Required
QSP (Qualified Supervising Professional) Master's/Doctorate + Licensed Mental Health Professional 2,000 hours clinical experience with ASD
Level I Provider Master's degree OR BCBA certification 2,000 hours supervised clinical experience
Level II Provider Bachelor's degree 1,000 hours supervised clinical experience

Role	Credentials	Experience Required
QSP (Qualified Supervising Professional)	Master's/Doctorate + Licensed Mental Health Professional	2,000 hours clinical experience with ASD
Level I Provider	Master's degree OR BCBA certification	2,000 hours supervised clinical experience
Level II Provider	Bachelor's degree	1,000 hours supervised clinical experience

New requirement (Jan 1, 2025):

All Board Certified Behavior Analysts (BCBAs) practicing in Minnesota MUST be licensed through the Minnesota Board of Psychology as Licensed Behavior Analysts (LBA).

This creates a verifiable paper trail. Every legitimate autism center should have:

At least one licensed LBA on staff
Searchable in Minnesota Board of Psychology public database
Enrollment in DHS EIDBI provider directory

Now we have to look at the gross numbers. With all of the Somali child day centers and Somali autism centers, we should expect these children, over time, to age out and become enrolled in the Minneapolis K-12 school system. Austistic children will have special needs and should be enrolled into special education programs, which are all well-documented by the state.

What do the numbers show?

Somali population Minneapolis area: ~87,000
Minnesota has excellent autism tracking that is is peer-reviewed, CDC-validated data from the University of Minnesota Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network -- one of the most rigorous autism surveillance systems in the nation.
The Somali autism rate is documented
- Minnesota overall (8-year-olds): 1 in 28 have autism (3.6%)
- Somali children: 1 in 12 have autism (8.3%), which is 3.3x higher than general population
- Historical overrepresentation
  - Somalis = 6% of MPS population
  - Somalis = 17% of early childhood special education autism students
Children ages 0-5 (assume 15% of population, high birthrate): 13,050
Minus autistic children (1 in 12): -1,088
Somali children available for regular daycare: 11,962
From Nick Shirley's video, total claimed capacity for 9 centers: ~500-700 children. At $1.9-3.68M for 100 children, that's $19,000-36,800 per child per year.
David visited "maybe a hundred" daycares over 7-8 years. If 100 daycares × 100 children capacity = 10,000 claimed children.
But calculations suggest only 11,962 Somali children 0-5 exist (minus autistic children).
Daycares claim to serve 84% of ALL Somali children (10,000 ÷ 11,962).
If 13,050 Somali children ages 0-5 exist in Minneapolis:
- Each year cohort: ~2,610 children
- Each year, ~2,610 Somali children should enter kindergarten
- Over 5 years of kindergarten entry (ages 5-10), there should be 13,050 Somali elementary students in Minneapolis Public Schools
Actual Minneapolis Public Schools Somali enrollment:
- 2010: ~2,000 Somali students across ALL grades K-12
- 2020: ~32,023 total MPS students (all demographics)
- 2024: ~28,900 total MPS students

Minneapolis schools lost 3,100 students (2020-2024), yet we're supposed to believe daycares are serving 10,000+ Somali children who will age into the system?

Furthermore, the Special Education enrollment doesn't match autism rates:

If 1,088 Somali children ages 0-5 have autism (1 in 12 rate)
- By age 5-6, most will be diagnosed (median diagnosis age: 4 years 7 months)
- All should enter Minneapolis Public Schools special education
- Over 13 years (K-12), should accumulate ~2,800 Somali special ed autism students
- But MPS has only ~2,000 TOTAL Somali students across all grades. Where are the other 2,460 autistic Somali children?
- It's possible that they are in Somali charter schools (12% of MN charters are Somali-run, 98-100% Somali enrollment), but charter schools report enrollment too.

But wait, there's more... the Licensed Behavior Analyst gap:

Total Somali autistic children needing services: ~2,800 (across ages 0-18)
EIDBI staffing requirements:
- QSP/BCBA ratio: 1 per 10-15 clients
- Need: 187-280 BCBAs just for Somali population
Plus Level I and Level II providers:
- Level I: ~300-400 needed
- Level II: ~400-500 needed
Total staff needed: ~900-1,200 professionals. Where are they?

Conclusion:

Minnesota has:

Universal kindergarten screening
Mandatory enrollment reporting
Special education identification by age 5-6
Autism tracking via CDC/UMN partnership

If 10,000+ Somali children are in daycares receiving $100+ million in CCAP:

We should see 2,600 Somali kindergarteners entering MPS annually
We should see 13,000 Somali elementary students in system (K-5)
We should see 2,800 Somali autistic children in special education

Instead we see:

Only ~2,000 TOTAL Somali students across ALL grades (2010 data)
Schools LOSING enrollment (32,023 → 28,900 students, 2020-2024)
Somali autism in special ed exists but not at scale expected

The only possible explanations:

Massive charter school enrollment - But charter schools report enrollment too; where's the data showing 11,000+ Somali charter students?
Ghost children billing - Daycares claim 10,000 children, but only 2,000-3,000 exist (proven fraud method from 2015 case)
Autism centers are completely fraudulent - No licensed therapists, no clients, just EIDBI billing for non-existent services

-PJ

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