“1) Ukraine will not take an inch of territory back over the remainder of this war.”
Technically speaking, they take bits and pieces temporarily by Russian “invitation” all the time. Russia falls back, invites Ukraine into a death zone, then clobbers them and takes it back. Overall, Russia is taking land, but they are probably close to what they want by now. They will control the sea access also, already do, given some reports. They skipped all the defenses and secured an open corridor at the other end which they will control. That was done without firing a shot.
If Ukraine won't concede territory and the EU keeps the war going, the Russians may take everything east of the Dnieper river and Odessa.