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“how could the possibility of tomahawks being introduced by the US change things”

The US Tomahawks have more accurate guidance, but the Ukrainian-made cruise missiles are otherwise better.

Ukraine was in 2025 probably the fourth largest arms producer in the world.

I suspect Russian attacks on Ukrainian electric powerplants have cut Ukrainian arms production. Unfortunately, the EU doesn’t have a large civilian market for ammo. The EU simply can’t make up for a drop in Ukrainian ammo production.

And how many Tomahawks do you reckon “ Ukraine” needs to bring Russia to its knees?

The entire 2023 US military purchase was about 55 missiles.
Current production is about 5 missiles per month. These include
missiles ordered in 2023 because production lead time is 2 years.

The US Navy dumped 80 Tomahawks on 30 targets in Yemen in 2024.
Many of these prob not hardened targets because ..Yemen.
Russia 141 million people, nuc weapons, 12 timezones worth of targets, Russia not Yemen
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2025/04/2000-missiles-gone-the-navys-tomahawk-cruise-missile-nightmare/

US dumped 30 or more Tomahawks on each target in Syria, Iran, Iraq. Maybe 50 or more on Isfahan. 30 on an empty airfield in Syria.

Regardless of how deep into Russia the Nuland family ISW is cheerleading Ukraine to strike…limited attacks are just going to intensify Russian will to prevail.

Oh and btw, Tomahawk as a “nuclear capable” system, how is Russia supposed to assume every launch is conventional? How would we react to Oreshniks in Cuba?

You think giving the cocaine shrimp Tomahawks is a game changer. Maybe not in the way Victoria Nulands family think tank proposes.

“the EU doesn’t have a large civilian market for ammo. The EU simply can’t make up for a drop in Ukrainian ammo production.”

Europe’s small-caliber ammunition market is growing (projected ~USD 3-4 billion by mid-2020s, with segments for hunting/sports in countries like Finland, Sweden, Czech Republic, Germany, and Italy), supported by organizations like AFEMS (Association of European Manufacturers of Sporting Ammunition).

But in the case of artillery ammunition the EU production has ramped up dramatically via the Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP) and national investments. The EU targeted (and reports progress toward) 2 million 155mm shells annually by end-2025 (from ~300,000-500,000 pre-2022 levels), led by companies like Rheinmetall (new factories aiming for hundreds of thousands), Nammo, BAE Systems, and others. Ukraine itself produces some Soviet-era calibers (152mm/122mm) and has joint NATO-standard lines (e.g., with Rheinmetall). Any drop in Ukrainian output could be offset by EU/NATO surges.