Posted on 11/30/2025 3:23:57 PM PST by delta7
Last week’s surprise release of a draft Ukraine war peace plan has raised hopes that the nearly three-year bloody conflict may finally come to an end. Ukraine has suffered horrible losses that may change the demographics of that country for decades to come. If this peace plan can be negotiated in a way that satisfies all sides and the guns finally go silent, I will be the first to cheer. However, the continued failure to understand the nature and origin of the current conflict leaves me skeptical that a real peace can be reached this way. From the Orange Revolution in the early 2000s to the Maidan revolution in 2014, the US and its NATO partners have been interfering in Ukraine’s internal affairs in attempt to manipulate the country into a hostile position toward its much larger and more powerful neighbor, Russia. We must remember how directly coordinated the 2014 coup was by the United States. US Senators, including John McCain and Lindsey Graham, were on the main square of a foreign capital demanding that the people overthrow their duly elected government. Victoria Nuland was caught on a telephone call planning who would run the post-coup government. Outside intervention led us to the terrible situation of today. This peace deal is another chapter in that same intervention, with the US and its partners desperately trying to manage and solve a problem that they created in the first place. Can you solve a problem created by outside intervention with more intervention? For the entirety of this conflict politicians and the media have been unwavering in blaming Russia entirely for what has occurred. I agree that they’re no angels. But the real villains here are the US neocons and their European counterparts who knew it was suicidal for Ukraine to take on Russia but pushed Ukraine to keep fighting anyway. Early in the conflict a deal was on the table and nearly signed that would end the war, but the neocon former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson demanded that Ukraine keep fighting. Ukraine is the victim here, I agree. But it is as much a victim of the US and European neocons as of the Russians. They believed they could put NATO on Russia’s doorstep and face no consequences. If the tables were turned and a hostile China set up a new Latin American military alliance with the US as its designated enemy, would we sit by idly as military bases were constructed on our southern border? I don’t think so. President Trump promised he would end the war 24 hours after he was elected. It was an unrealistic boast, but he actually could have ended it rather quickly. The antidote to intervention Is non-intervention. Biden drug us into the war, that is true. But Trump could have pulled us out by quite simply ending all US involvement. No weapons, no intelligence, no coordination. No need for sanctions or the threat of sanctions, no need for elaborate peace plans. A real peace deal would realize that it was always idiotic to believe that Ukraine could stand up to Russia’s war machine – even with NATO’s backing. It is unimaginably cruel to demand that Ukraine keep fighting our proxy war down to the last Ukrainian. No 28-point plans can fix this. The real fix is much simpler: walk away.
Parts of my plan:
Putin will probably effectively insist to the end that:
1. Russian assets to be returned by the EU, US & UK (over a specified time)....
Zelensky might insist that:
1. the agreement should state that it is a long-term armistice meant to preserve human life and property and that no territory is to be considered as ceded or any claim to territory relinquished,
2. Ukraine be allowed to have an unlimited number of trained military personnel of Ukrainian citizenship, artillery pieces, artillery shells, anti-aircraft guns, anti-aircraft missiles of types now in its service and future equivalents, tanks and drones of a range of less than a certain number of kilometers,
Note that Trump’s plan goes against what I believe will be the highest priorities.
bfl
“will be the highest priority “?
Orshould be?
Isn’t it almost 4 years? Most of 2022, all of 2023, all of 2024 and most of 2025?
“the neocon former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson demanded that Ukraine keep fighting”
The deal offered to Ukraine was too limiting in terms of troops to be acceptable.
Ukraine was in the driver’s seat until the Summer of 2023.
Ukraine has slowly lost some bargaining power since. Now it is losing bargaining power at a significant rate, which causes the Russians to be extremely demanding.
Now the Russians are insisting on all of the Donbas. That makes getting a deal done tough.
The mumblings of Ron Paul posted by Delta7...
What could go wrong?
“will be the highest priority”
For Ukraine, the ability to defend itself and thereby deter Russian aggression.
For Russia, the safety of Moscow (and Putin).
At this time, the sticking point is the unconquered parts of Donbas.
Russia can probably take all of Donbas, but is it worth ~20,000 more Russian dead so the ~60,000 who now live under Zelensky but would rather live under Putin can live and work where they do?
The ~60,000 could move ~15 miles to the east where Putin could build brand new apartments and factories for them for far less cost than fighting the war for two more months.
Exactly. If the rus mongols are allowed to get away with it, there will be no peace.
Ron Paul’s analysis is unusually shallow, even for him.
I suppose it’s not bad for a 90 y/o, though.
“The real fix is much simpler: walk away.”
The EU, US & UK helped create the mess.
There is considerable value of having an independent, neutral Ukraine as a buffer state.
Bravo Ron, bravo.
POTUS Trump could have walked away.
Instead he continues to feed meat grinder.
Just pull the plug already!
“If the rus mongols are allowed to get away with it, there will be no peace.”
The “Rus Mongrels” snatched Eastern Europe and there was peace for about 66 years [1948-2014].
Much tougher position than I would take.
Yes we caused it. Yes we perpetuate it. Yes we caused the escalations as we saw our side failing in the hopes we can turn things around.
But Ukraine is our baby.
We are responsible for this mess and while I agree we need to end this ASAP, we need to do so under the most favorable terms possible for Ukraine, even if this means continuing a little longer.
Not indefinitely. Not escalating things.
Just to push back hard and long enough to ensure Ukraine gets the best possible deal which will still be ugly and painful for Ukraine.
We have to accept that when the other side is winning, has the initiative, and long term structural advantages that would allow them to continue to win, we can’t be making ridiculous demands. A peace will have Russia get more of what they want.
Basically let the Russians know that they too benefit from compromise and we’re willing to keep things going until they also make some concessions.
Paul’s plan would literally give Russia everything, have Ukraine lose entirely with us turning our back on Ukraine. That ain’t cool either.
If we beat the message that we’re willing to compromise and end this, make a real deal (not some ridiculous peace plan that demands everything we want) and broadcast this, it becomes difficult for Putin to keep going. At that point, if he doesn’t settle, he will begin the process of eroding his own support in Russia, IMHO.
At that point he begins becoming the “bad guy” in earnest both in Russia and on the international stage.
Realize, for the time being, with NATO encroaching on Russia the way we were, Russia was able to make a real, clear and legitimate security argument for this war. This is threatening to them, even though many here deny this.
Take away this threat of NATO expansion and give them some of the ethnic Russian areas (also a blood toll from the Russian perspective), and Putin continuing the conflict makes him into a pariah internationally and to many in his own country.
I think it can be settled and it will hurt for Ukraine (land loss, no NATO), but how much it’s going to hurt is the question?
Each side is going to have demands.
These demands will have to be tempered to realities.
The Donbass remains the Russian Donbass as it had for centuries. Vlad has not wavered from his speech on day one, best to let it be decided on the battlefield....as little St Z has not responded to Trump’s plan, best Vlad goes on to take back Odessa.
If Ukraine can continue to ramp up hits on Russian oil infrastructure, now including shadow fleet tankers, they may gain serious leverage back.
Russia may well also lose Iran as an ally, if the water crisis in Iran plays out the way it appears to be going.
Set no timeline!!!
Trump is right (as usual).
If you try to end this too quick or set a timeline like Obama did with Iraq, one year before the elections (2011), failure is pre-programmed. The enemy then knows all they have to do is run the clock.
Set REALISTIC expectations for a peace plan, publish them, and negotiate.
Accept that the peace deal will be less than ideal for our side.
Russia has achieved their political and military objectives, they have the long term structural advantage (population, industry, etc), and have the initiative. We need to take “reality” into account as a deal is made...
On the other hand: Turning our back on Ukraine and ending this under the worst imaginable conditions for them isn’t where I would want to take this.
“The Donbass remains the Russian Donbass as it had for centuries. Vlad has not wavered from his speech on day one, best to let it be decided on the battlefield”
It would get decided in the cities, which would get ruined, as usual.
Besides the lives of ~20,000 Russian soldiers, it’s a matter of where the pro-Putin people now in the holdout area of Donbas will be living. Putin is going to have to build new apartments and factories for them.
“If Ukraine can continue to ramp up hits on Russian oil infrastructure, now including shadow fleet tankers, they may gain serious leverage back.”
Cotton export revenue was low during the presidency of Jefferson Davis.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.