Putin’s Next Demand: Alaska?

National Security Journal ^ | 8/11/2025 | Michael Rubin

[ifinnegan]

“ It’s much more likely that Trump will be negotiating for Eastern Russia.”

Yes.

Compensation for the money we spent because of the war Putin stated and compensation so Putin doesn’t end up hanging from a scaffold.

[Vermont Lt]

Ain’t that the truth?

[shotgun]

By holding the summit in Alaska, I think this is Trump trolling the Russians who are claiming they want Alaska back.

[Colorado Doug]

Oh stop it.

[Bookshelf]

What utter horsepucky. Pure sophmoric trash.

[Jumper]

Putin will only want a neutral Ukriane, no NATO membership or NATO military presence, no Bandara’s/AZOV/NAZIs, and that Russian heritage and speakers are safe from Zelinski’s genocidal forces.

[Jumper]

I argree to the extend that I would only disagree with your assumption that Russia cannot take Ukraine in totality. The slow build up and the now accomplished pentration of the first and second Ukrainian defensive lines indicate that Ukraine will now have to fight and defend from unprepared positions and will no longer be fighting from prepared positions. Russia will have 2.1m under arms within 6-9 months and Ukraine will have been reduced to under 450k. The fact that this is a war now fought on the ground by fire teams and squads, sometimes platoon or company sized elements, means that superior drone and infnatry assets favor a complete capture of Ukraine. That Russia too has superiority in stand off systems such as artillery, drones, missiles and aircraft against a depleted country that no longer has even localized air defense capabilities is telling. Even the F16s departed Ukraine for NATO friendly countries three weeks when Russia found 24 of them in hangers at a commercial airport near Kiev; Russia got four of them on the ground and destroyed their infrastructure.

[Jumper]

Georgia attacked Russia and was defeated; they thought that NATO had their back. They miscalculated. That Gerogia attacked Russian peacekeepers to start the conflict they lost cannot be written out of history.

[dfwgator]

If Russia has Belarus, why do they need all of Ukraine?

[Kazan]

Only an imbecile would claim Russia wants or we try to take back Alaska.

[Alas Babylon!]

No, maybe after several more years; but there will be a ceasefire before then. My remarks were about a breakthrough, not a multi-year war of attrition. You are right that Russia would eventually win that, but at what cost and how long?

Current # of all Russian troops is 1.3 million. And many of these, more than half, have no obligation to fight in Ukraine per their contracts, unless Russia now declares the SMO a war.

Ukraine cannot win back their territory, nevertheless. Russia is too firmly embedded and entrenched. Ukraine had their chance in the fall of 2022 but haven’t had a successful offensive since. Neither have the Russians... Bakhmut was successful, but took months of assault, loss of many, many troops, and the waste of all of the Wagner Group.

I am just analyzing this based on my military experience and knowledge. I’m certainly not cheering for either side, but I do want the killing to end, to be honest.

A ceasefire, with Ukraine giving up Crimea and the Donbas is beneficial to both sides, and I believe very likely thanks to Donald Trump. They can negotiate further over if the Russians would be willing to pull out of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, but fighting further won’t dislodge them.

The front is VERY stable. Drone warfare has made it so. Single soldiers from both sides are hunted down by drones; drones see every armored advance and quickly call in precision artillery on both sides.

[grey_whiskers]

If it gets rid of Murkowski, it’s worth considering.

🤣

[kaktuskid]

And the Tsarist Russians were in a continuous state of war with the Alaskan Natives.

[whyilovetexas111]

I liked the piece. Putin and his gang already made some comments they wanted it back three or so years ago.

[Jumper]

Now replace the question with NATO and Kiev....

[Jumper]

This is incitefful

Https://youtu.be/BNRbs6b-HGE?si=HowQdmcWGysM1akR

[Jumper]

I think the entirebwest is going to shocked about the stable front. Russia has put enough pressure everywhere at once while destroying Ukrainian defensive line no 1 and is breaching number 2 already.

The fact that Ukraine no longer has fixed defenses from which to fight will increase the speed Russia advances.

You did an outstanding analysis.

Trump knows the Dniper is sooner than anyone is letting on. The final few cities anchoring the Uke def lines are being broke all at the same time.

Russia is putting on a naster class in domination, patience and resilience in the face of the combined west.

Kiev and western Ukraine are going to the battlefield early on in 2026

[Alas Babylon!]

The fact that Ukraine no longer has fixed defenses from which to fight will increase the speed Russia advances.

I don't think that has been established. Sure, the Russian say, but...

The latest map shows gains of a few miles, as below:

But when you zoom out, it's really not that much.

And a map of Ukraine shows even less:

I don't see these advances as big enough to declare the Russians will see Kiev on the horizon by 2026. That's way too optimistic.

What new force can they apply except brutal frontal attacks with no armored breakthrough?

I say this as someone not enamored with either Russian or Ukraine tactics in this war so far. Both have had chances but most of the lines is as it was in the Fall of 2022.

Anyway, the armistice/ceasefire will be in place before then. Then a DMZ like in Korea.

[Jumper]

You do great work.

Ukraine is finished.

Trump’s own fixation in real time betrays the massive general collapse.

Trump will eventually tell the west the extent of Ukrainian losses in lives and now land.

The Ukrainian army is now under 300,000 men and depleted of infantry.

Their fallback lines have been breached. Doness and Donbas are lost.

Trump’s bargaining positions are being overtaken by actual events.

The west is in denial of a impending surrounding(s) in Donbas, and Doness, of the AFU and the real time collapse.

I would completely agree with your analysis if I only used western press

The EU is working overtime to wreck this first of two home and away summit meetings BTW US/Russia.

American ideas of LAND
swaps are DOA. Trump is annoyed with Zelinski and EU.

From the American Coup to now, the US was able to control events.

Brics is stronger this week. That China has stopped exporting rare earth minerals, magnetic and dual use mil-civ raw materials our industries are going to be hard pressed. One critical dual use item allowed for export is SIXTY TIMES more expensive since Trump leveled sanctions on Chins.

Russia and China are under no illusion that the US seeks their demise and American world domination.

Ukraine is Alter on Which Globalism and American World Domination was halted.

We are weaker today. Both losing a war in Ukraine, and the Trump Trade Wars, have caused great harm going forward. The world will not forget, nor forgive where strong enough the American world leadership bordering on facism, unfair economic conditions and coups.

The Russians are in no mood to stop. Minsk I/II was a mistake, Merkel deception, Ukraine/US/EU breaking the agreement...

The Ukrainian collapse may leave Russia to conclude that the moment of USA HYPER-Power status is over, and Russia may just find themselves closer to the D’niper within weeks, and to finish western Ukraine.

Ukraine is literally on the brink of losing everything up to the D’niper.

[Jumper]

The reason the lines are maintained is that Russia achieves destruction of the AFU with short supply lines.

This is changing NOW. Very literally now.