Posted on 07/25/2025 9:16:07 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Demilitarization and regime change might be in the cards...
The latest clashes between Cambodia and Thailand over their decades-long border dispute, which were arguably initiated by the Thai military to restore its damaged prestige amidst a recent political scandal as explained here, could “move towards war” according to its acting Prime Minister. Thailand doesn’t recognize the International Court of Justice’s 1962 ruling in favor of Cambodia and rejects third-party mediation in the current conflict so the fighting will likely continue until it achieves some tangible goal.
That scenario would naturally raise the question of Thailand’s endgame. It’s officially only defending itself from what it claims to be Cambodia’s unprovoked aggression and cross-border incursions, but the longer that the conflict goes on for, the more likely it is that mission creep could change its stated goals. After all, the perceived security threat posed by Cambodia is intensifying, so Thailand’s goals could evolve to “demilitarizing” its neighbor and possibly even carrying out regime change to ensure that.
Former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, who remains influential as the President of the Senate and the father of incumbent Prime Minister Hun Manet, has recently been portrayed as a bogeyman in Thailand. The narrative might thus soon be spun that he and his son’s continued rule over the country poses an enduring threat to Thailand’s security, ergo the possibly proposed solution of replacing them with a puppet regime that’ll demilitarize Cambodia and cede the disputed territories.
Hun Sen was previously demonized by the West, which he strongly implied in 2019 wanted to overthrow him at the possible cost of plunging Cambodia back into civil war, and they also claimed that he cut a secret deal with Beijing to host a Chinese naval base. It therefore wouldn’t be too difficult for Thailand to rally Western governments around a potential regime change campaign in Cambodia. In exchange for their political support, Thailand might promise to have its puppet regime distance Cambodia from China.
To be clear, this speculation about its endgame doesn’t mean that Thailand initiated the latest conflict at the West’s behest, just that the bloc’s US leader might see an opportunity if Thailand’s goals shift to regime change in the event that the conflict escalates into war. Even if this objective becomes obvious to most observers, those multipolar-friendly ones with ties to Thailand might still deny it due to fear of falling afoul of its strict lese-majeste law, which some believe is abused to stifle criticism of the military.
Similarly, due to Thailand’s much larger economy and geostrategic location at the center of the Greater Mekong Subregion, China and Russia might be reluctant to condemn this potential regime change campaign, let alone propose UNSC sanctions. Their global media ecosystems, which include independent influencers who support their worldview and rarely contradict their officials (even usually shying away from constructive critiques of their policies), might take the cue to eschew criticism of Thailand.
Thailand’s military dwarfs Cambodia’s by all metrics so it could easily sweep into Phnom Penh to depose Hun Sen and his son unless something goes wrong or Vietnam intervenes (though it too has problems with them). Public opinion in Thailand also seems to favor regime change in Cambodia, but it’s ultimately the military’s call whether or not to pursue this. They might think that now’s the perfect moment to end Cambodian-emanating threats once and for all, however, so they might very well make a push for this.
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I don’t think either country can sustain a ‘war’...more than 4 to 6 weeks. In Thailand’s case...it’s scaring the crap out of tourists with reservations.
Cambodia will loose. There is a reason North Vietnam never took on Thailand during the insane Vietnam War.
Big boys. Suit yourselves.
Andrew KorybkoMeaning the Russia idea of BRICS as long as Russia is in charge. On his LinkedIn page he claims he is a "freelance Independent Moscow-Based American Political Analyst" since 2019. Working in Moscow as a public figure and claiming any freedom of thought is a contradiction in terms. Someone is paying him for his work, including globalresearch.ca and Sputnik.
@korybko
I'm a Moscow-based American political analyst specializing in the global systemic transition to multipolarity.
Cambodia attacked Thailand. Cambodia's leader, Hun Sen, is functionally dictator for life. Thailand is a U.S. ally, Cambodia has a lot of international criticism. To shift blame from Cambodia, Korybko accuse the US of plotting regime change. A little looking thing up shows how selectively one-sided he is to advance the Russian view. Take what he says with more than a grain of salt.
Thailand???
China effectively owns both Laos and Cambodia. Thailand, like Vietnam does not like nor trust the Chinese.
Belt and road is big in Laos and Cambodia. When I was there in 2020 China was building a railway through both of them to the Cambodian port China owns.
Do not underestimate the Thai people.
China supported Pol Pot in killing millions of Cambodians in the late 1970’s. They protected Pol Pot even when Vietnam moved in to stop him.
Pol Pot died of old age in the Kmere Rouge region between Cambodia and Thailand.
The Khmer Rouge then fled to Thailand, whose government saw them as a buffer force against the Communist Party of Vietnam. The Khmer Rouge continued to fight against the Vietnamese and the government of the new People’s Republic of Kampuchea until the end of the war in 1989. The Cambodian governments-in-exile (including the Khmer Rouge) held onto Cambodia’s United Nations seat (with considerable international support) until 1993, when the monarchy was restored and the name of the Cambodian state was changed to the Kingdom of Cambodia.
This is the area where the border war is most intense. The people in this area are very poor.
I spent a few hours at the border checkpoint in this area. There were still people pulling carts with bison crossing between the countries. I was surprised to see street vendors selling bowls of insects and scorpions for lunch.
Reference for Thai - Cambodia conflict.
Change the name of the Gulf of Thailand to the Gulf of Cambodia.
I like the Thai people. The most beautiful woman I have met was a Chinese Thai college student.
Bkmk
It’s the only place in the world where I have been that when you ask a police officer on the street for directions, they politely bow in gratitude afterward.
This place turned my stomach.
I visited this memorial to the killing fields.
5000 Human Skulls, Memorial Stupa, Pagoda, Killing Fields of the Khmer Rouge, Choeung Ek, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
https://share.google/9mFXtuLHQguUEsKGY
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