This is a political document for offical British Bankers use and reference. It bears no true relationship to actual national outputs.
The US is still in no position to us oil as a weapon against Russia. This arguement and falacy was exposed over the amount of the diplomatic traffic involved over the 12-day war, last week when OIL became the most important commodity for a moment....
The loss of 2m barrels a day would hurt the world’s economy.
The only thing that happens with sanctions is that it creates middlemen who must be used in order for transit legally per the sanction regime. Sanctions are literally kickbacks for political supporters - somebody is going to be the middlemen.
Lindsay Graham’s sanctions are going nowhere.
The US is in a bind. The Petro-Dollar is dead; the EURO was a competitive oil instrument, and it too is in trouble. The US is and EU are trying to control the world’s natural resource wealth by treaties, sanctions, and war - which is the old British imperial model of divide and conquer.... The US is trying to protec the TRADE DOLLAR. SWIFT is a component of that.
Whenever these western documents are produced, it is usually based on Western trade, or the SWITF Banking and USD/Euro-Oil dollar numbers. The real numbers would show that most of the gas and much of the oil the EU uses comes thru middlemen in Turkey or India, who add 1-2% of different product to sanctioned-oil.
Were Russia and Iran to both stop sending out oil, the west could not replace it in time to advert collaspe. The OPEC cartel would not backfill the necessary oil.
The US is a few years from having have oil in sufficient quanity to off-set geo-political events and disruptions in the world markets to stabilize our important partners internationally.
The EU itself is in dire straights as the amount of oil they have purchased since publically banning Russian oil has increased in quanity and value.
If US oil consumption is down 19m bpd - that is less than 40 tankers if they transport 500k each. We have not yet got into the summer driving so by next quarter we will have surpassed the previous year’s consumption based on those projections.
You will have to download the spreadsheet. It covers every country of the world. Not really likely that Argentina’s Vaca Muerto gas consumption would interest British bankers.
US oil consumption of 19 million bpd is down 18K bpd from 2023, insignificant and flat. The 19 number is not the change. It is the total.
The spreadsheet delineates crude&condensate from All Liquids, so one has to be aligned to understand the difference.
The overall most important item is the collapse in North Sea oil output (Norway and the UK). Someone has to replace that, and Russia is the only source. US production was up just a small amount and is projected to start its decline 2025-2026