Taiwan is a small place. A blockade or any economic disruption would be absolute end of the economy
Unlike Ukraine, they are not a big country. They have no where to retreat to. 90% of the population is squeezed on to its western coast, facing china. The rest is steep mountains. The slightest war and it would lose all trade, never to return.
I suspect China is already getting much of what it wants regarding Taiwan. There is already strong economic and travel ties between the two sides. Unless there is an outright push to independence, there is no need to move on Taiwan.
A blockade is an act of war. It would trigger mutual defense pacts.
Do you think that the Chinese would fire on American ships running the blockade?
China does not have the naval “lift” and amphibious craft to make it across the straits with enough troops to “invade.” Every inch of that island is targeted with more missiles than you can imagine. The 135 mile journey from China to Taiwan would be a literal minefield. The losses of ships would be incredible.
The “Invasion of Taiwan” trope is one that gets tossed around a lot. From a practical standpoint, it is not going to happen in 2027 or 2037.
It is far more likely that Taiwan will be economically and culturally seduced into a deeper relationship with the mainland. The travel between the two is already high. Familial ties between the two are significant.
It is more likely that Taiwan will turn to China without firing a shot as the US shrinks away from world domination because of economic issues over the next 20 years.
The US could blockade the straights of Malacca, intercept oil tankers heading to China and within 3 months vehicle traffic would cease in mainland China. Within 6 months the lights would go out.
“Could we even stop China if they did this?”
One fully armed Ohio Class submarine on loan to the Taiwan navy would do the trick. You could park it 3000 miles away from Chinese waters.
If China wanted to starve Taiwan they could have done it decades ago. And there is no point in bombing Taiwan because China will get nothing for it. If Chinese spies on the Island couldn’t internally bring down Taiwan, not much could.
Be a shame if something were to happen to the Three Gorges dam.
Or it could just buy Taiwan’s pols...
It is time for the sleeping giant of Japan to wake up.
What is the geography of this?
While running the blockade and holding off Chinese ships, would American ships also be being closely supported by land based Taiwan capabilities, in that sense would we be closer to supportive land based might than the Chinese ships would be?
Between Taiwan’s capabilities and American ocean capabilities, how long could the Chinese navy blockade?
The Air Force would like to join the chat. They have been specifically working on how to sink China’s 700 ship Navy.
Think B2 bombers and F22s dropping these bad boys from outside the AA missile ring. Add in AGM-158C LRASM from B52s and B1Bs by the dozens at a time also from well outside fighter or AA range.
https://www.sandboxx.us/news/quicksink-kits-could-make-it-much-cheaper-to-take-out-enemy-ships/
The Navy could arm it’s F35C or F/A 18s with quicksinks too. One hit next to the waterline and then under it cracks a large ship in half just like a MK48 which is what it’s compared too and designed to replicate its effect.
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/long-range-anti-ship-missile.html
The F22 looks good carrying 4 of those on pylons...which means it can still carry two quicksinks internally.
Got to love the milpr0n images near the bottom of this page.
https://www.seaforces.org/wpnsys/AIRCRAFT/AGM-158C-LRASM.htm
Imagine a single B1B with its internal rotary launchers with three sets of 8 AGM158C and then since the Russians left START/SALT the B-One gets it’s external pylons back so 12 more in two packs on the six external hard points. For a total of 36 stand off stealth ship sinkers.
Better would be load the internal bays to the nines with quicksinks in the 1000lb size you get 48 of those internally and that’s not even stressing the payload capacity the B1B is volume limited not mass. The already stealthy 158s externally won’t up the radar signature all that much and they will be launched well outside radar range anyways then the JDAM ER based quicksinks get yeet’d 45+ miles out. There is a plan to put a small turbojet in the tail of a JDAM ER kit which would give it 200+ miles of stand off.
Boeing up the game they say 300 miles for the JDAM ER powered version. Quicksink is just a nose seeker kit on the existing JDAM tail kit so anything they do to the JDAM automatically upgrades the quicksink versions too.
https://www.twz.com/jet-powered-jdam-aims-to-turn-bombs-into-cruise-missiles
China gonna be having a bad day when B1Bs with 48+ of these bad boys leave Guam or Diego followed by B52s trucking AGM-158C or powered quicksinks a B52 could bring the the party 42x 750lb JDAM-ER internally and 24 more on the pylons. The level of devastation a flock of B52s and their BB brothers would bring is staggering.
Warmongering clickbait from a Deep State house organ.
Communists tried this in Berlin. It united the free West even after they were exhausted from WW2. Doing the same to Free China would unite the world against the commies.
Go ahead. Try it. Even the CCP lackeys in Australia would turn on them.
China will destroy itself.
Japan did. South Korea is. Europe and America are trying really hard. Rome did.
Sin devours itself, eventually.
China will start the war with a massive surprise attack on the US the same way, and for the same reasons, the Japanese did.