Ukraine’s Drone Attack on Russia’s Bomber Fleet Won’t Win the War

National Security Journal ^ | 6/2/2025 | Andrew Latham

[whyilovetexas111]

While Spiderweb played out on Telegram and television, Russian forces continued to advance – slowly, methodically, and without spectacle. Around Chasiv Yar, in the ruins of Avdiivka, and along the land bridge to Crimea, Moscow is doing the work that wins wars. It’s pushing lines. It’s holding ground. It’s breaking down Ukrainian defenses by weight of numbers, firepower, and time. That kind of warfare doesn’t trend on social media, but it changes maps.

[nathanbedford]

One can breeze through this opinion piece and easily turn every sweeping assertion against the author's position:

It looked, for a moment, like a bold stroke

It was a bold stroke. It occurred north of the Arctic Circle, deep in Siberia, thousands of kilometers away from Ukraine and in the suburbs of Moscow.

strategically meaningless

It destroyed one-third of Russia's nuclear bomber capacity

They aren’t frontline assets.

The point is Russia does not have the capacity to replace the lost planes.

They aren’t shaping the tempo or direction of Russia’s offensive.

They are used to bomb Ukraine by launching missiles from standoff bombers. They clearly have been used on more than a limited basis.

Analysts who should know better gushed about Kyiv’s “strategic reach.”

Of course they did, the strikes penetrated thousands of kilometers into Russia, as far as Siberia, north of the Arctic Circle, and in Moscow's suburbs.

But turning points don’t come from symbolism. They come from control – of ground, of resources, of tempo. And on that front,

Really? Tell that to the Vietnamese after the Tet Offensive of 1968, in which they were defeated, held no territory, yet that offensive proved one of the most decisive turning points of the war.

Russia continues to gain the upper hand.

At a price in blood and treasure that might very well be unsustainable.

What makes this even clearer is the absence of any meaningful Russian reaction. If these bombers were critical assets – if this were a serious blow – Moscow would have responded with force and fury.

Rubbish. Precisely the opposite is likely the case.

This war was never about speed.

This is true but not by Russian design, or perhaps we forget their blitzkrieg initial assault that left columns stranded and Russia humiliated.

it plays into the illusion that these kinds of attacks can change the course of the war.

Putin has gone silent, perhaps because the course of the war is even now being changed by intrigue in the Kremlin. It is perfectly reasonable to believe that these kinds of attacks, like the mutiny of the Wagner forces, renders Putin's internal position more untenable.

I think enough has been demonstrated to show the vacuousness of this article.

[ansel12]

-—Capturing 20% of Ukraine while having their navy and air force destroyed.-—
“”I think you are confusing it with the Vietnam War.””

If you think that then your side should have moved in Europe if you thought our Navy and Air forces had been destroyed, and we weren’t invading North Vietnam, much less a North Vietnam that was on our border and that we could devote our full forces and energy against.

As a retired Russian Field Grade Officer, is this how you thought things would go 3.5 years ago?

[NorseViking]

The US lost 3,000 jets in Vietnam and lost.
Russia is winning against the whole of NATO.

[Dr. Franklin]

Russia is advancing at a snail’s pace while paying an unsustainable price. Ukraine has been resisting Russia for 3 1/2 years and there are no signs that it is about to buckle. This is not winning.

Putin expected his marauders and rapists to be welcomed as liberators. His army received a different response. Europe continues to support Ukraine fully. Putin's regime will collapse as Tsar Nicholas' did in 1917 before Ukraine will sue for peace. Russia is getting weaker as the war continues, not stronger.

[ansel12]

Your statement wasn’t about losses, at the time we in full force Navy and Air Force wise and you guys were fully being held in Europe and the Koreas.

Russia hasn’t seen any NATO yet, only supplies from it, similar to Vietnam where you and China were supplying North Vietnam but the forces of the Soviet Union weren’t there.

[aMorePerfectUnion]

—> Europe continues to support Ukraine fully

Perfect. Let them fully fund it too.

[Salman]

There is a question of war aims.

Putin's aim is to win. Which means gaining some specifically defined territory, maybe
plus some more depending on where the lines are when Ukraine surrenders.

The aim of Zelenskyy's masters is to keep the profitable war going as long as possible.

We saw this before in Afghanistan and maybe Vietnam.

Also see my tagline.

[Brellium]

It’s interesting that the St. Petersburg branch of FR is more offended by the strikes than the Russians.

[Salman]

Europe continues to support Ukraine fully.

Like a rope supports a hanging man.

[MinorityRepublican]

It’s interesting that the St. Petersburg branch of FR is more offended by the strikes than the Russians.

I don't blame them. They're on the payroll.

[kaktuskid]

Did Russia win in Afghanistan? (Yes I know neither did we, nor the Brits) Finland?

[dforest]

Our new President is speaking out an e is advocating even larger war.

https://x.com/Zlatti_71/status/1929822509991350326

[NorseViking]

My response was about jubilation over a covert op that barely took out a dozen assets, protected by treaty, but celebrated as a “destruction of the Air Force” which is a laughable sign of desperation and a show of weakness.

Russia have seen NATO for sure, as it is all in, as contrary to Soviets in Vietnam. Ukraine is a top priority that ate up a great deal of NATO’s available resources, particularly in terms of air defenses and field artillery ammunition, thousands of sheep-dipped operators have been killed, and all to a very little effect compared to a rather half-assed Soviet involvement six decades ago that was much more effective with much less resources.

[dforest]

Ukraine won a battle, That is it so far.

[AAABEST]

No one expected Ukraine to hold off the Russians.

lol.. except nearly every ranting Zeeper mow-mow and clown encountered in the media, DC and here. They're on this very thread contradicting you as I type.

[Robert DeLong]

Yes, bad damage was done, but it won't change the facts on ground.

That point was driven home with Russia's advance in the region of Sumy.

For its part, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed Tuesday that its forces had captured the village of Andriivka as they broadened the front, according to the official TASS news agency.

If fighting is what you want, Russia is willing to accommodate that desire. Ukraine apparently believes that this gives them greater bargaining power. The Russian message to Ukraine is, no, you only continue to lose more with the continuation.

Sadly, those who support Ukraine in this conflict fail to see the reality, which is why they wildly celebrated this minor success, that was countered immediately by Russia to take control of even more of Ukraine's landmass.

Furthermore, it only escalates the possibility of igniting WWIII, which will be vastly different than WWI & WWII with the number of nations that are capable of having it go nuclear.

[NorseViking]

It is not a battle but a covert op and the plans were way more ambitious than the results.

[ansel12]

This invasion of next door has been devastating to Russia’s Air Force, Navy, and elite ground forces, it has given NATO a chance to empty it’s old weapon stocks and open up new weapon factories, new production lines, change direction and not even replace some old versions of ammo and weapons, while shifting to the new ideas coming out of Ukraine, generated new military budgets and growth, in general, it kicked out the cobwebs and moth balls of 4 years ago.

I sure didn’t expect in February of 2022 that we would still be watching Russia’s struggles years later and that Odessa would still be a port in the nation of Ukraine.

[odawg]

“Putin wanted to take all of Ukraine.”

You can’t know that. War strategy - take Kiev or surround it to get what he wanted. I remember a convoy was rolling toward Kiev but then was halted before any fighting, or much of it, as best as I can remember.

[DownInFlames]

But the world will see a weakened Russia. Ukraine is just the beginning. China will finish off Russia.