Posted on 02/13/2025 11:09:04 AM PST by SeekAndFind
US President Donald Trump's proposal to relocate Palestinians from Gaza and then redevelop the Gaza Strip has sent shockwaves around the world. Rejected by the Arab world and much of the international community, it has been hailed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as an idea that "could change history," "worth listening to carefully," and "the first original idea that's been raised in years."
However, to one man in Washington, the proposal Trump unveiled when he hosted Netanyahu at the White House on Tuesday was not shocking.
George Washington University professor Joseph Pelzman, an expert in economics and international relations and head of the university's Center of Excellence for the Economic Study of the Middle East and North Africa (CEESMENA), authored the plan and delivered it to Trump's team as early as July 2024.
Details of Pelzman's plan were first made public by Dr. Kobby Barda, an Israeli historian specializing in American politics and geostrategy, during a discussion he had with Pelzman on the "America, Baby!" podcast in August 2024.
"I figured, well, why don't I write an unattainable perspective on how to fix Gaza after the war ends?,” Pelzman told Barda. “The letter went to Trump’s people because they were the ones who were interested in it initially — not Biden’s people. I was asked (by Trump’s team) to think outside the box about what would happen after (the war), because no one was really talking about it.”
Pelzman’s paper, titled “An Economic Plan for Gaza Reconstruction: A BOT Approach,” has since been published in the Global World Journal. (He wrote it in July, but it was posted online in October.)
It presents a view where Gaza's economy has reached its absolute bottom. Pelzman cites World Bank data, which says that between 2007 and 2022, Gaza's annual GDP growth averaged 0.4%, while per capita GDP fell by 2.5% per year due to high population growth.
Moreover, due to the war that broke out after Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, the destruction in Gaza has become so extensive that it is beyond repair or reconstruction, according to the professor. In fact, according to Pelzman, no private or international investing entity would enter Gaza as things stand. “You have to start over."," he said to Barda.
Pelzman presented additional data, already known to the public: As of 2022, the unemployment rate in Gaza was 45% and 53% of the population lived below the poverty line, compared to about 13% of Palestinians living in the West Bank. According to World Bank estimates from March 2024, cited by Pelzman, about 1.2 million people in Gaza were homeless and poor “due to Hamas actions.” Furthermore, 62% of the buildings still standing had suffered severe damage that made them uninhabitable, and 90% of the main roads had been destroyed.
"You have to destroy the whole country, you have to start over.", Pelzman said on Barda's podcast. "And then you will have an economy that actually has three sectors: tourism potential, agricultural potential, and then you will have – because many of them are smart – high technology.”
He said his plan "It started with a three-sector model of Gaza, but it requires the place to be completely emptied. I mean, literally emptied, dug from scratch – and the concrete can be recycled.
“This is a triangular sector model, but its implementation requires the area to be completely cleared so that the destroyed concrete can be recycled – ensuring that nothing remains of the vertical construction that lies deep underground.”
The plan presented by Pelzman, who previously worked with USAID on economic development in China, uses the BOT method – Build-Operate-Transfer – a model used in developing countries. Under this method, private sector companies and organizations enter into investment partnerships with government entities, receiving an ownership lease from the government for 50-100 years.
Under this system, a private entity builds and operates the project for several decades, after which ownership is transferred to a public authority. During the operation period, the private entity is allowed to set tariffs for the use of the infrastructure.
Chinese-style residential units
In his research paper, Pelzman characterizes his approach as treating Gaza “from a purely economic perspective,” which requires “investment decision for an experiment failed” – that is, the Gaza Strip since Israel withdrew from it in 2005.
Among other things, Pelzman's plan would see a Gaza Strip powered entirely by solar energy, crisscrossed by a light rail system and served by air and sea ports. The Strip would be independent of Israel for its energy needs.
Meanwhile, he writes, "there are no ex-ante restrictions on the movement of local residents out of Gaza".
According to Pelzman's plan, "The cost of this massive reconstruction of Gaza will range from $1 to $2 trillion and will take 5 to 10 years to complete.". His assessment is based on a model that analyzes a post-war Gaza economy driven by the agriculture, tourism and technology sectors.
Pelzman envisions restaurants, hotels and other luxury amenities on the western, waterfront side of the Strip; and residential buildings – “[People's Republic of China] 30-story residential unit” on the eastern side. In between, he writes, will be agricultural areas and greenhouses. Reconstruction will require “the complete excavation of the terror tunnels,” although Pelzman says the IDF has already done much of the work.
Pelzman repeatedly states in his paper that his preferred way of governing Gaza is e-government, meaning government that uses technological tools. In particular, “The exchange of funds between residents and businesses will be done exclusively through an online exchange network.e”, eliminating the need for paper money, credit cards or foreign aid. The Belt will have no monetary authority and “all capital flows will be controlled by foreign stakeholders”.
Furthermore, Pelzman suggests that experts appointed by foreign shareholders would oversee an education system based on deradicalization, “with external supervision to ensure the development of a skilled population“. Pelzman suggests importing curricula – from kindergarten to university – from the educational models of the United Arab Emirates or Saudi Arabia, based on their recent reforms and Sunni-Sufi Islamic teachings.
Security should be assigned to them "partners who share a common interest in removing Hamas and its affiliates from any role” and are “interested in permanently demilitarizing Gaza".
According to Pelzman, Hamas has no property rights in Gaza, according to the 1993 Oslo Accords, which he says were left intact when Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005.
Background on the origins of a creative idea.
It’s a great idea.
1. It makes the Gazans think about what life might be like in a prosperous future.
2. It makes the Arab nations scared that we might set up a nice rebuilding project and make the Gazans the envy of the Arab world, especially the "Palestinians".
3. Thus the Arab nations will probably commit to rebuilding Gaza instead of intentionally keeping Gaza poor like they have been to make them miserable and perpetually blame Israel and the U.S. for their poverty.
Reminds me of the plans to rebuild the Green Zone in Baghdad. That was cooking along for awhile, with economic investors, hotel, golf course, private local businesses…
Then Iraq lost control of itself, and Iranian-sympathetic government took over, and that was that. All of the effort down the crapper.
We can’t save stupid people from themselves.
(My brother worked on redevelopment of Baghdad, that’s my source for this.)
bkmk
“According to Pelzman’s plan, “The cost of this massive reconstruction of Gaza will range from $1 to $2 trillion and will take 5 to 10 years to complete.”
Phone Qatar. These oil sheiks can spare 100 billion a year for the next 10-20 years
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