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Study: It Will Take 18 Years to Build Enough Replacements for Weapons Going to Ukraine
Gateway Pundit ^ | Dec. 15, 2024 | C. Douglas Golden, The Western Journal

Posted on 12/15/2024 9:52:47 AM PST by Kazan

If you’re a defense contractor, we have a very merry Christmas present for you: at least 18 years worth of weapons stock you need to rebuild in order to regain the stores the U.S. military had before we started shipping it to Ukraine.

For the rest of us who prefer that we defend, you know, our own country, that’s a heck of a lump of coal in America’s stocking.

According to a study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies published in January 2023 — before many other weapons transfers to Kyiv — “there may be a crisis brewing over artillery ammunition” due to the U.S. supply of weapons to Ukraine.

The biggest crisis involves the FIM-92 Stinger missile system, described by manufacturer Raytheon as “a lightweight, self-contained air defense system that can be rapidly deployed by ground troops.”

According to the CSIS’ data, as of January 2023, 1,600 Stinger systems had been deployed to Ukraine as part of the war effort. Given the recent rate of production, that means it would take 18 years for the U.S. to replenish its stocks of the surface-to-air system.

Even if it were produced at a higher historical rate, it would still take Raytheon 6.5 years to replenish our stocks of Stingers. And this was 2023, mind you; as Reuters noted in August, Stingers were a major part of a $125 million military aid package that was announced by the Pentagon.

“The military assistance would be the tenth tranche of equipment for Ukraine since President Joe Biden signed a national security supplemental in April, White House national security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters in a telephonic briefing,” the wire service reported.

Overall, the CSIS data looked at six different artillery systems that had been transferred to Ukraine as part of their war with Russia and how long it would take to replace our inventory of them.

The analysis took into account both the recent rate of production of these systems and the “surge” or “historical” rate of production — which is to say, how quickly they could be replenished if the inventory replacement rate was increased.

Of the six systems, only one — the M142 HIMARS system, a rocket launcher manufactured by Lockheed Martin — was likely to be replaced “within five years at low risk.”

At its recent rate, it would take 37 months for the HIMARS stock to be replenished, whereas a surge rate would reduce it to 30 months.

The Stinger, meanwhile, would take the longest: 18 years at the recent rate, 6.5 years at a historical rate. Either way, the system requires at least 24 months lead time for manufacturing, tied with the Javelin anti-tank system for longest production lead time.

Only one other system — Lockheed Martin’s GMLRS — might be able to be replenished within five years, although this is because it’s unclear how many were transferred to Ukraine and how much production time it would take to replace it.

The rest of the systems — 155 mm ammunition, 155mm Excalibur precision ammunition, Javelin anti-tank systems, and Stinger missiles — were unlikely to see inventories replenished within five years.

Now, the good news is this, according to CSIS: “Most inventories are OK.”

“These six systems do not represent the full spectrum of U.S. inventories. Most items provided to Ukraine have been in small numbers, or from areas that have large inventories or production capacities,” the analysis concluded. “For example, the United States has provided 108 million rounds of small arms ammunition, but U.S. production is about 8.6 billion rounds per year, so this transfer is easy to accommodate.”

However, the problem is the lack of data and transparency when it comes to crucial weapons systems: “Replacement times for several important systems cannot be calculated because not enough data is publicly available. For example, DOD cites sending Ukraine over 46,000 ‘other anti-armor systems’ (not Javelin but types not specified), over 50 counter-artillery radars (various kinds), laser-guided rocket systems, unmanned aerial systems, and unmanned coastal defense vessels. It might be that some of these systems have inventory challenges, but the data are insufficient to make a judgment.”

The biggest challenge might be in 155mm ammunition, because of “Ukraine’s high shell usage.”

“This could become a crisis. With the front line now mostly stationary, artillery has become the most important combat arm,” CSIS noted. “Ukraine will never run out of 155 mm ammunition — there will always be some flowing in — but artillery units might have to ration shells and fire at only the highest priority targets. This would have an adverse battlefield effect. The more constrained the ammunition supply, the more severe the effect.”

And, the conclusions the CSIS drew weren’t exactly causes for celebration, either. Given the situation, we might need to substitute less effective systems in the future or start purchasing from foreign sources, making us dependent on foreign defense contractors as opposed to the other way around.

That being said, one thing is clear: As the war has dragged on, so have weapons procurements. Not only are those procurements costly, they deplete our own stocks of important defense systems. At some point, enough will have to be enough — and NATO must seek peace in order to preserve global security. We cannot continue to sell out our own national security to the point where critical systems might take nearly two decades to replace in order to keep fueling a war that, at best, can only remain in a meat-grinding stalemate.

This article appeared originally on The Western Journal.


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: bidenbois4ww3; failedproxywar; peepers; rabidrussophobes; ukraine; usmilitary
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The proxy war in Ukraine has been disaster for national security but the defense industry will make a buck manufacturing weapons to replace the ones wasted in Ukraine.
1 posted on 12/15/2024 9:52:47 AM PST by Kazan
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To: Kazan

One of the things that will absolutely SHOCK the country is when Trump takes over and finds out just how EMPTY our military stockpiles are.

Likewise, the Norks and Chinese (along with other countries), in hearing the same may well decide it’s a good time to strike. This is EXACTLY why I’ve opposed this war from the start - we never did jack to prepare for it, and now we see the HUGE DAMAGE it is doing to OUR national security.


2 posted on 12/15/2024 9:56:56 AM PST by BobL
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To: Kazan
Looking at the current situation in Ukraine, it's obvious the United States is out of surface-to-air missiles.

3 posted on 12/15/2024 9:58:39 AM PST by Right_Wing_Madman
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To: Right_Wing_Madman

Didn’t the Chinese communists just stop all exports of rare earth metals to the USA from the sources they control? My understanding is that some of these weapon systems cannot be replaced without these resources to manufacture them?


4 posted on 12/15/2024 10:04:15 AM PST by desertsolitaire ( Lee Harvey Oswald and the Bands final performance)
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To: Kazan

If it can be done sooner, you can bet Trump will get it done.


5 posted on 12/15/2024 10:19:24 AM PST by Flaming Conservative ((Pray without ceasing))
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To: Kazan

Maybe Musk like to get into the weapons business.

Tesla has some people that know how to install mass production machinery.


6 posted on 12/15/2024 10:20:04 AM PST by Brian Griffin
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To: Kazan

Why 18 years? Trump can resupply Ukraine with their needs under 1 year!


7 posted on 12/15/2024 10:20:31 AM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: BobL
Having been ridiculed here previously, for bringing up the FACT that the USA has been dis-armed, intentionally, by the stockpiles of weapons, $$$$$, and ammo via the Ukraine Money-Laundering apparatus, and Defense Contractors, this is spot on info.

The stockpiles will be replentished, once again, by DEFENSE CONTRACTORS, and their payoffs to Politicians will continue.

8 posted on 12/15/2024 10:21:50 AM PST by traditional2 ("Is it them, again, Yogi?")
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To: BobL
Having been ridiculed here previously, for bringing up the FACT that the USA has been dis-armed, intentionally, by the stockpiles of weapons, $$$$$, and ammo via the Ukraine Money-Laundering apparatus, and Defense Contractors, this is spot on info.

The stockpiles will be replentished, once again, by DEFENSE CONTRACTORS, and their payoffs to Politicians will continue.

9 posted on 12/15/2024 10:21:56 AM PST by traditional2 ("Is it them, again, Yogi?")
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To: Kazan

Eventually, war mongering Democrats will realize they can’t both have unchecked support for Ukraine and pay for all the entitlement stuff they.


10 posted on 12/15/2024 10:26:01 AM PST by Gaffer
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To: traditional2
"Having been ridiculed here previously, for bringing up the FACT that the USA has been dis-armed, intentionally...

You're not alone. I've said the same exact thing, and been ridiculed for it, being told that we have plenty of weapons to defend this country. They are the delusional ones.

11 posted on 12/15/2024 10:28:34 AM PST by mass55th (“Courage is being scared to death, but saddling up anyway.” ― John Wayne)
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To: desertsolitaire

The USA has sources of rare metals in this country. We were not mining them do to the Binen Administration. With Trump back in charge that will change.


12 posted on 12/15/2024 10:33:58 AM PST by Destroyer Sailor (Revenge is a dish best served cold. )
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To: BobL
One of the things that will absolutely SHOCK the country is when Trump takes over and finds out just how EMPTY our military stockpiles are.

And our crude oil and natural gas reserves. The Obama cabal deliberately weakened our defenses.

13 posted on 12/15/2024 10:36:29 AM PST by Allegra (Deplorable garbage)
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To: Kazan

Someone should start an ETF of just the war machine companies...Lockheed, Northrop, Raytheon, General Dynamics...etc. I’m sure it would be a safe place for money. :-(


14 posted on 12/15/2024 10:48:37 AM PST by Aria (Voted for Trump 2016, 2020 & 10/22/2024 )
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To: Kazan

Using today’s stay at home labor force that would make sense.

Shxtcan the worthless idiots, hire merit based employment, remove government regulations and they could probably knock it out 6 months.


15 posted on 12/15/2024 10:53:12 AM PST by maddog55 (The only thing systemic in America is the left's hatred of it!)
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To: GOPJ; poconopundit; Jane Long; Diana in Wisconsin; Grampa Dave; Godzilla; Vaduz; null and void; ...

p


16 posted on 12/15/2024 11:00:54 AM PST by Liz (As West Texas ranchers occasionally say: “THAT boy had one too many years of college.”)
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To: Kazan

My understanding is that that’s exactly why the elites want war. It’s very profitable.

The cost in human lives and suffering is less than inconsequential to them.


17 posted on 12/15/2024 11:13:36 AM PST by metmom (He who testifies to these things says, “Surely I am coming soon." Amen. Come, Lord Jesus)
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To: BobL

I agree and this was the WEF and NWOs plan all along to bring down the USA and the Christian free Western nations.

Empty our weapons depots, flood in invaders across our open borders to create chaos and confusion and then using mandatory Vaccine IDs while creating a real need for digital IDs and Central Bank Digital Currencies CBDCs. Total surveillance control. Any future leader not approved by them would simply and immediately be turned off.

Lastly they would use a controlled collapse of the economic systems of the West and use their version of AI to redistribute wealth and resources and rise up with a New World Order Davos Klaus approved government. This is all anti-Christ activity.

This is also why that demonic Obama creature was in the UK making a public show of visiting 10 Downing Street. Soon after his visit they get a full on tyrannical communist WEF sycophant Keir Starmer installed to rule over them.


18 posted on 12/15/2024 11:21:05 AM PST by captmar-vell
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To: Liz

Yay us!!!!


19 posted on 12/15/2024 11:29:08 AM PST by leaning conservative (snow coming, school cancelled, yayyyyyyyyy!!!!!!)
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To: Kazan

Good thing the Chinese don’t know we are out of weapons.


20 posted on 12/15/2024 11:30:02 AM PST by ProtectOurFreedom (“Facts can be ignored, but their consequences cannot be escaped” -- Thomas Sowell)
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