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What is happening in Syria and Aleppo?
Substack ^ | Dec 02, 2024 | Ryan McBeth

Posted on 12/02/2024 10:32:58 AM PST by Forgiven_Sinner

The Dog’s Breakfast

Syria is a mess with up to 70 factions fighting. The typical maps of Syria don’t do the conflict justice and show the sheer scale of independent factions as well as factions within factions. But why did anti-government forces make such quick gains after years of static front lines?

Here is a basic rundown of the conflict in a nutshell:

Bashar al-Assad is the President and Dictator of Syria.

Bashar al-Assad He became the president of Syria in 2000 after the death of his father, Hafez al-Assad

(Excerpt) Read more at substack.com ...


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KEYWORDS: assad; coup; hezbollah; syria
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This is the best analysis of the situation in Syria I have read. Ryan McBeth, a former US Military Intelligence agent, identifies the factions and alignments in the Syrian renewed civil war.
1 posted on 12/02/2024 10:32:58 AM PST by Forgiven_Sinner
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To: Forgiven_Sinner
Fairly accurate description of the groups, but doesn't really explain why the insurgents have had success against Aleppo.

I think there are two main reasons: 1) Assad has lost a lot of material support from Russia, Iran and Hezbollah. Ukraine is tying down most Russian forces and Israel has pounded the heck out of Hezbollah, threatened Iran and destroyed a lot of Iranian assets in Syria. 2) Turkey has trained and equipped the SNA and "moderate" Islamist factions. They seem to have a lot of new equipment, including a bunch of M113s for the SNA.

Turkey sees the power vacuum and wants to act before Trump gets in office.

Is this enough to get rid of Assad? Unlikely but possible.

Meanwhile the USAF is supposedly whacking Iraqi Shiite militia that entered Syria to support Assad.

2 posted on 12/02/2024 10:54:36 AM PST by pierrem15 ("Massacrez-les, car le seigneur connait les siens" )
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To: pierrem15

I am going to file this under “Crazy sh^t that ends in 7 weeks.”

President Trump needs to take turkey to the woodshed.


3 posted on 12/02/2024 11:05:25 AM PST by wildcard_redneck
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To: Forgiven_Sinner
Even if the green side of this chart wins, there will be at least 6 factions vying for control. I doubt any of them are interested in sharing power as they all have their own motivations, goals, and supporters.

The act of getting rid of Assad will likely solve nothing and only make things worse; a civil war on multiple fronts.

Getting rid of Assad would hobble Syria for generations which will please the neocons as did getting rid of Qaddafi.

The people will suffer.


4 posted on 12/02/2024 11:07:22 AM PST by yesthatjallen
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To: Forgiven_Sinner

IMHO it’s the same old crap! Color revolution and attempts at regime change. Why the hell should WE be attempting to overthrow the Assad regime?


5 posted on 12/02/2024 11:09:37 AM PST by House Atreides (I’m now ULTRA-MAGA-PRO-MAX.)
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To: yesthatjallen

Is THAT how you view Tulsi Gabbard?


6 posted on 12/02/2024 11:11:34 AM PST by House Atreides (I’m now ULTRA-MAGA-PRO-MAX.)
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To: yesthatjallen

Tusi is now a Russian asset?

This article is a bad joke, not worth reading.


7 posted on 12/02/2024 11:17:03 AM PST by desertfreedom765
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To: wildcard_redneck

Trump is likely to do something both unpredictable and to America’s distinct advantage. Whatever he does, it will not be a State Department imposed rout like Afghanistan.


8 posted on 12/02/2024 11:28:49 AM PST by pierrem15 ("Massacrez-les, car le seigneur connait les siens" )
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To: pierrem15

Syria is a distraction started by the Deep State. One thing that is. Of being mentioned anywhere due to the storm over tariffs is the President’s absolute power over visas and legal immigration. Expect some strong move on this in the first weeks of the Trump Administration. Remember that Trump won in the Supreme Court in his last term over this power. This is one of his biggest clubs, he can shut down H-1b visas immediately and club the corporations owned by the communists.


9 posted on 12/02/2024 11:36:21 AM PST by wildcard_redneck
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To: Forgiven_Sinner

You’re as big an idiot as the guy who wrote it for posting this.

Waste of time.


10 posted on 12/02/2024 12:12:09 PM PST by HYPOCRACY (Democracy is dead. Long live the Republic!)
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To: Forgiven_Sinner

Didn’t Russia kick our ass here too? Didn’t we fund the same azzholes we had been fighting next door in Iraq for 10 years to fight via proxy?


11 posted on 12/02/2024 12:20:56 PM PST by 03A3 (If we can defund the police, we sure as hell can defund the FBI)
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To: Forgiven_Sinner

I’m a bit surprised that McBeth left out the informal pact the US made with the Kurds, with the Kurds supplying almost all of the manpower on the ground, and taking almost all the casualties (a lot of them), in return for air and arty support, arms, logistics, and command / control, in the US part of the effort to defeat ISIS during Trump’s 1st term. After ISIS defeat, the US / Kurds coalition was kept in place to try to suppress ISIS “regrowth” (only partially successfully, as we have seen, mostly because the Kurds would be spread too thin to cover a much larger area than they already do), AND the Kurds and US bases by stroke of “luck” were and are well positioned to disrupt Iranian supplies flowing to Syria and Hezbollah (in both Lebanon and Syria). The partial disruption of Iranian logistics to Hezbollah is key for the Kurds, but, it is also key for Israel.

If the US were to abandon the Kurds, aside from demolishing any credibility the US has left in the Mideast as an “ally” of any moderate Muslim, Israel is put in a much more difficult position, and, IMO, the slaughter of the Kurds would be breathtaking. What the heck would be a defensible (by them) escape route even if they try to flee?


12 posted on 12/02/2024 12:27:15 PM PST by Paul R. (Bin Laden wanted Obama killed so the incompetent VP, Biden, would become President!)
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To: wildcard_redneck
The Syrian mess is a direct outcome of Obama's disastrous anti-Americanism, which saw abandoning Iraq to ISIS, promoting Islamists like the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and elsewhere, and kissing Iranian butt.

All policies basically renewed by the Biden regime and especially the virulently Communist and anti-American State Department.

Luckily the Israelis proved far tougher and the Iranian/Hamas/Hezbollah axis far weaker than anyone thought.

13 posted on 12/02/2024 12:30:55 PM PST by pierrem15 ("Massacrez-les, car le seigneur connait les siens" )
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To: desertfreedom765

“Tusi is now a Russian asset?

This article is a bad joke, not worth reading.”

Yeah, I saw that and wondered what Tulsi had said that made the left think she was pro-Russian. I’ve not seen any substantive quote from her, just empty allegations.

I’m surprised that McBeth listed her as a pro-Syria supporter, since he’s usually been pretty politically neutral, if not pro-conservative.


14 posted on 12/02/2024 12:41:38 PM PST by Forgiven_Sinner (Seek you first the kingdom of God, and all things will be given to you.)
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To: Paul R.

“I’m a bit surprised that McBeth left out the informal pact the US made with the Kurds, with the Kurds supplying almost all of the manpower on the ground, and taking almost all the casualties (a lot of them), in return for air and arty support, arms, logistics, and command / control, in the US part of the effort to defeat ISIS during Trump’s 1st term.”

That was obliviated 4 years ago with the start of Biden’s term. I’m not sure how that’s relevant now.


15 posted on 12/02/2024 12:43:18 PM PST by Forgiven_Sinner (Seek you first the kingdom of God, and all things will be given to you.)
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To: pierrem15

Your comments are very similar to McBeth’s, for he addresses this question directly:

“Why is this happening now?
There are three possibilities, or it is a combination of the three:

Russia simply can’t spend the money, troops and equipment needed to prop-up Syria while it simultaneously deals with Ukraine.

The peace treaty between Israel and Hezbollah removed two major sources of pro-Syrian backing: Hezbollah and Iran.

Hezbollah may have been attrited so much that it simply can’t fight in Syria anymore.

Iran may be pulling back from Syria to focus on defending it’s own airspace.

Anti-Assad forces may be moving with the understanding that the inauguration of President Donald Trump could bring a new dynamic to the war. It is possible that the US may cut off the Kurdish forces from more aid, which was lampooned in this Twitter post:”


16 posted on 12/02/2024 12:45:33 PM PST by Forgiven_Sinner (Seek you first the kingdom of God, and all things will be given to you.)
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To: Forgiven_Sinner
I wasn't really criticizing, it's just I was hoping to see more explanation. The description of all the factions is better than I've seen elsewhere.

For example, it seems more than likely that Russian forces have been drawn down. But where are the numbers in terms of numbers of aircraft, armor, men, etc.?

One thing I think that is hurting Putin far more than first meets the eye is Prigozhin's revolt: Wagner seems really scaled down and in general the flexibility and success Putin had with PMCs cannot be duplicated if such mercenary armed forces are seen as a threat to the state.

The other problem Putin is having is that the funds available for his foreign ventures are now being spent on the war in Ukraine. The Russians aren't even supplying Cuba with oil anymore. Ditto for the Iranians, which may be leaving Assad in a tough position if he can't pay his army.

17 posted on 12/02/2024 1:10:18 PM PST by pierrem15 ("Massacrez-les, car le seigneur connait les siens" )
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To: House Atreides; desertfreedom765
I never mentioned Tulsi or even the red side of the chart.

I only pointed out that, in my opinion, getting rid of Assag, far from solving a problem, would likely matters worse.

18 posted on 12/02/2024 2:20:48 PM PST by yesthatjallen
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To: desertfreedom765

“This article is a bad joke, not worth reading.”

The comment about Assad being like Dexter - that is if Dexter were your opthamologist, now that was funny.


19 posted on 12/02/2024 2:32:02 PM PST by MplsSteve
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To: House Atreides

There are significant amounts of nat gas in the ME. In order for that gas to get to Europe a pipeline would have to go through Syria. If this pipeline is built it would SIGNIFICANTLY hurt Gazprom aka Russia aka Putin. (It’s said that everyone else along the path has said they’re fine with the pipeline, Syria is the last holdout.)

THIS could have something to do with it.


20 posted on 12/02/2024 2:36:40 PM PST by FrankRizzo890
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