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When breaking the internet goes wrong... That Iowa Poll.
Uncommon Analysis ^ | 11/12/2024 | Uncommon Analysis

Posted on 11/12/2024 7:09:04 AM PST by HamiltonJay

When breaking the internet goes wrong...

Last minute "shock" poll by the "gold standard" pollster gives false hope.


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1 posted on 11/12/2024 7:09:04 AM PST by HamiltonJay
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To: HamiltonJay

That ‘poll’ was a pure payoff lie.


2 posted on 11/12/2024 7:11:54 AM PST by Gaffer
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To: HamiltonJay

Folks,

statistics, ai, surveys, algorithms are not accurate with complex system. They serve no purpose but we like them because it lets us think we understand and can controlo the complex systems.

My old school prof in statistics said. “Statistics NEVER gives you an answer, at best, it might give you another question.”


3 posted on 11/12/2024 7:14:50 AM PST by PeterPrinciple (Thinking Caps are no longer being issued but there must be a warehouse full of them somewhere.)
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To: HamiltonJay

Just before the election Disney bought 538 and removed the two honest polling orgs. They did this to manufacture a false Harris surge which helped rat turn out. It was more brazen election interference by single biggest weapon the left/democrats have


4 posted on 11/12/2024 7:17:14 AM PST by iamgalt
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To: HamiltonJay

Manipulation of political wagering markets. INTERPOL should be investigating.


5 posted on 11/12/2024 7:17:19 AM PST by jjotto ( Blessed are You LORD, who crushes enemies and subdues the wicked.)
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To: PeterPrinciple

https://www.amazon.com/STATISTICS-PELICAN-DARRELL-1973-01-01-Paperback/dp/B012YX19U0


6 posted on 11/12/2024 7:22:46 AM PST by cgbg (It is time to pull the Deep State out of the mass media--like ticks from a dog.)
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To: HamiltonJay

It was the perfect example of a push poll.

“A push poll is an interactive marketing technique, most commonly employed during political campaigning, in which an individual or organization attempts to influence prospective voters’ views under the appearance of conducting an opinion poll.”


7 posted on 11/12/2024 7:26:06 AM PST by Restless
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To: cgbg

Statistics have a very good role in tightly controlled systems such as manufacturing where it was first applied.

Then the social sciences thought it gave legitimacy to their lies.

The above basic ideas need to be taught again.


8 posted on 11/12/2024 7:27:36 AM PST by PeterPrinciple (Thinking Caps are no longer being issued but there must be a warehouse full of them somewhere.)
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To: PeterPrinciple

” “Statistics NEVER gives you an answer”

Depends on the question.


9 posted on 11/12/2024 7:31:49 AM PST by cymbeline
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To: PeterPrinciple

72% of all statistics are made up on the spot.


10 posted on 11/12/2024 7:33:07 AM PST by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: HamiltonJay
Remember four years ago when such a survey would be labeled as "disinformation" and the originator's social media accounts would be frozen?

This is absolutely the same thing.

11 posted on 11/12/2024 7:34:05 AM PST by Lou L (Health "insurance" is NOT the same as health "care")
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To: PeterPrinciple

Statistics can provide great information when used by honorable people.

When used by charlatans they become as evil as those who did the analysis.


12 posted on 11/12/2024 7:35:28 AM PST by cgbg (It is time to pull the Deep State out of the mass media--like ticks from a dog.)
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To: dfwgator
72% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

That sounds statistically insignificant.

13 posted on 11/12/2024 7:36:38 AM PST by 1Old Pro
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To: cymbeline

Depends on the question.


No it doesn’t. There is never 100 percent confidence.


14 posted on 11/12/2024 7:37:01 AM PST by PeterPrinciple (Thinking Caps are no longer being issued but there must be a warehouse full of them somewhere.)
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To: HamiltonJay
Psychological warfare that blew up in their face, judge the results by looking at all the crazies head-bursting on Youtube post election...

"we were told she was going to win Iowa, sweep all the swing-states..."

...now many of them would like to be in a "swing state".

15 posted on 11/12/2024 7:46:02 AM PST by RckyRaCoCo (Time to throw them out of the Temple...again)
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To: iamgalt

Oh I wrote of 538 many cycles ago. Nate Silver was a pundit pretending to be an analyst.

It was useful just to see a lot of polls in 1 place, but I switched over to Real Clear Polling a long long time ago.

538 includes way way way too many garbage polls in their aggregates, and pretends they are reliable, which they just are not.


16 posted on 11/12/2024 7:46:22 AM PST by HamiltonJay
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To: HamiltonJay

Amazing how many moron Dems believed this stupid poll.


17 posted on 11/12/2024 7:47:55 AM PST by Signalman
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To: Restless
I would say that 60-70% of the polls (if not more) this time around were push polls.

JMO, YMMV

18 posted on 11/12/2024 7:50:53 AM PST by philman_36 (Pride breakfasted with plenty, dined with poverty and supped with infamy. Benjamin Franklin)
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To: dfwgator

Surely, you can’t be serious.


19 posted on 11/12/2024 8:02:05 AM PST by Mr. Lucky
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To: Signalman

Wasn’t just the dems, it was anyone anti Trump..

The NeverTrumpers bit on this one hard as well.


20 posted on 11/12/2024 8:07:29 AM PST by HamiltonJay
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