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FBI Altered Homicide Data for the Last Two Decades
AmmoLand ^ | November 1, 2024 | Dean Weingarten

Posted on 11/04/2024 4:51:06 AM PST by marktwain

The FBI has quietly changed 20 years of homicide data from 2004 to 2023. Professor John Lott has published an article showing the FBI’s revised homicide data for 2022 and 2023. The previous numbers fed Biden/Harris administration talking points.

A close look at the data shows the FBI “adjusted” the homicide data from the last two decades, not just the last two years. The largest adjustment outside of 2021 and 2022 happened to the data from 2005. As of 2006, the total number of homicides reported by the FBI for 2005 was 16,740 for 2005 and 17,034 for 2006. In 2019, the numbers were reported as 16,740 and 17,309.  As of 2024, the numbers were adjusted to 17,750 (added 1,010) for 2005 and 17,241 (dropped 68) for 2006.

What happened with the numbers in 2005? How do they hold steady for 13 years, then suddenly expand by over a thousand murders for the year? It is an increase of 6%.

It is reasonable for homicide numbers to be adjusted upwards for a few years after the initial reporting. Some reports may come in late. Some investigations may show a crime was a homicide instead of a suicide. People who were severely wounded may die. It is harder to see how the number of homicides decreases. Perhaps dates were misreported. The increase of over a thousand homicides in one year should be explained.

FBI UCR data are not simply raw numbers that are arithmetically added. National FBI data includes several estimates. From the 2019 Crime in the United States Table 1 data declaration:

Offense estimation

These tables contain statistics for the entire United States. Because not all law enforcement agencies provide data for complete reporting periods,


(Excerpt) Read more at ammoland.com ...


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: adjusted; adjusteddata; banglist; data; estimates; fbi; fbidata; fraud; homicide; homicidedata; murder; ucr
What causes an increase of over a thousand murders in a year, 19 years after the national number was first reported?
1 posted on 11/04/2024 4:51:06 AM PST by marktwain
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To: marktwain

Note the gap in 2005. Over a thousand murders were added in 2024.

2 posted on 11/04/2024 4:53:02 AM PST by marktwain (The Republic is at risk. Resistance to the Democratic Party is Resistance to Tyranny. )
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To: marktwain

“What happened with the numbers....?”

Jao and the Komrade?


3 posted on 11/04/2024 5:01:43 AM PST by Paladin2
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To: marktwain

Not worried about that so much, but did they alter the statistics by race?


4 posted on 11/04/2024 5:03:15 AM PST by WeaslesRippedMyFlesh (there will come a day when FR rejects articles from the NYT, et al. as "Commie trash, no thank you")
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To: marktwain

I’m sure the government would like John Lott to go away. He’s been a thorn in their side for a long time.


5 posted on 11/04/2024 5:07:15 AM PST by telescope115 (I NEED MY SPACE!!! 🔭)
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To: marktwain

From 2008 to 2016 it’s not adjusted much at all.

And look, regardless of adjustment, 2020 has a massive increase with little change after!


6 posted on 11/04/2024 5:11:27 AM PST by the OlLine Rebel (Common sense is an uncommon virtue./Federal-run medical care is as good as state-run DMVs.)
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To: the OlLine Rebel

Even if it is not a large change, why would numbers be changed at all from over a decade ago?


7 posted on 11/04/2024 5:16:05 AM PST by Red in Blue PA (You can vote your way into socialism, but you have to shoot your way out.)
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To: telescope115
For a short time in 2020, John Lott was a member of the Trump administration. He asked for numbers from the FBI. They delayed any response until after the election, just ignoring his requests.

Lott should be part of a new Trump administration, if he wins.

8 posted on 11/04/2024 5:26:52 AM PST by marktwain (The Republic is at risk. Resistance to the Democratic Party is Resistance to Tyranny. )
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To: marktwain

The FBI, our KGB wannabes, is not to be believed in anything it says or produces.


9 posted on 11/04/2024 5:32:12 AM PST by Bookshelf
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To: marktwain

btt


10 posted on 11/04/2024 5:33:15 AM PST by KSCITYBOY (The media is corrupt)
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To: WeaslesRippedMyFlesh

They always have.

When they are looking at victims, the separate whites and latinos/hispanics to reduce white victim numbers. When they are looking at perps, they combine whites and hispanics to inflate white numbers.


11 posted on 11/04/2024 5:34:31 AM PST by Secret Agent Man (Gone Galt; not averse to Going Bronson.)
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To: marktwain

None of these government agencies can be trusted to report their own numbers.


12 posted on 11/04/2024 5:40:27 AM PST by T.B. Yoits
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To: marktwain

Keeping my fingers crossed…🙂


13 posted on 11/04/2024 5:49:41 AM PST by telescope115 (I NEED MY SPACE!!! 🔭)
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To: marktwain
Lott should be part of a new Trump administration, if he wins.

Put him in charge of the FBI for a year or two...

14 posted on 11/04/2024 5:53:57 AM PST by GOPJ (Democrat fraud: They vote the people who don't show up to vote. Everything else is red herring...)
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To: marktwain

The law should be set to say that any and all federal agency adjustments of any and all data they publicly report must be accompanied with detail explanations including how and why any adjustment is made, and no agency can quit publicly reporting any data that has been publiicly reported before.


15 posted on 11/04/2024 5:55:02 AM PST by Wuli
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To: marktwain

FBI aka FIB


16 posted on 11/04/2024 6:08:36 AM PST by antidemoncrat
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To: Red in Blue PA

I could imagine some late info coming in. Cold cases happen, sometimes involving discovering the victim at all. Went from missing to dead, etc.

But large changes rather distant don’t seem likely.


17 posted on 11/04/2024 6:18:11 AM PST by the OlLine Rebel (Common sense is an uncommon virtue./Federal-run medical care is as good as state-run DMVs.)
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To: Bookshelf

The chart shows a drop during the Obama years. How much of that is due to fake statistics?


18 posted on 11/04/2024 11:51:14 AM PST by Verginius Rufus
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