This is going to be a Trump and Republican blowout across the board.
Don't get fooled by the slimy leftist fake polls trying to persuade demoralized Democrats to get out and vote.
The numbers follow (all percentages of Democrats compared to total early votes):
Arizona 2020--37.4 2024--32.7
California 2020--50.9 2024--48.6
Colorado 2020--32.2 2024--29.3
Florida 2020--39.1 2024--32.7
Iowa 2020--45.1 2024--39.6
Nevada 2020--39.7 2024--33.7
North Carolina 2020--48.3 2024--32.4
Oregon 2020--41.3 2024--40.0
Btw--if anybody out there thinks election day turnout is going to save the Democrats this year--fugggedaboutit:
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/10/24/american-voters-expectations-for-voting-this-year/
Anyone else wondering if certain Dem votes aren’t being counted?
Donald Dems are why Deep State has to steal elections.
That link doesn’t go to that information.
BTTT
I feel good. I think Trump wins this easily.
But it will be interesting if they try to convince the people — early voting was very poor for the Democrats. And election day voting was also very poor for the Democrats. Thank goodness that all of those tens of millions of mail-in votes that we counted on Wednesday were able to give Kamala the win.
I don’t think that one’s going to fly this time.
But women are dominating in turn out!
Btw—if anybody out there thinks election day turnout is going to save the Democrats this year—fugggedaboutit:
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
it’s not the election day turnout they think will save them, it’s the ballot turnout in the week after election day that they’re banking on
Trump is going to win in a massive blow out.
The ONLY people voting for KumAllah are the hardcore %30 of the Rat party. The vast majority of American citizens are NOT going to vote for an anchor baby halfwit born to non-American parents, who grew up in French Montreal Canada.
Low motivated voters will NOT be going to vote on election day for Harris. On the other side, Trump voters (men AND woman) are going to storm the ramparts (precincts) and vote in huge numbers on Tuesday.
Steve Bannon thinks we need to bring ten relatives to vote along with us but I say you don’t have to. It will be enough to just vote by yourself because it will still overrun anything that Harris gets. NO ONE is motivated to vote for that skank. The Rats do not have the numbers. Trump is going to win in a landslide.
You are 100% forgetting about electronic voting machines and how Repukes bent over and took the BS they spewed out in 2020.
I wonder if Democrats are thinking “Crap, I can’t vote for that idiot Kamala and I sure am not voting for Trump, so I’ll just sit this one out”...?
This is encouraging well except if all the ones who didn’t early vote show up election day.
Did you do a similar analysis of Republican registered voters?
There are Republicans voting for Harris. There are Democrats voting for Trump. One third, at least, of the electorate is not registered with a political party.
Early voting should be illegal, and this nonsense is one of the reasons why.
Thank you for your work.
Democrats have hundreds of millions to get their vote out Tuesday. If we’re counting on them not to turn out, we lose.
Republicans have to hit historic turnout levels to prevail.
If a candidate hast to go and demean themselves on Saturday night live three days before the election something is definitely wrong. It made her look incredibly weak and stupid.
Assuming a "best case scenario" for Democrats, I used the 2020 final November general election returns by county to break out the early voting turnout by county. This assumes that 2024 turnout will match 2020 turnout, which is why I called it "best case" for Democrats.
What I found is that the "best case" for Democrats is that they are outpacing Republican early-voting by only 2.8%.
-PJ
Cgbg, thank you for all of the work you put into this and the thoughtful analysis. Experts like you are one of the reasons FR is such an awesome and informative site.
Oregon? They vote 100% by mail. How do they call any ballots early?
And just as soon as the democrats figure out who didn’t vote, their ballots will be cast for them anyways, whether they know it or not.
Thr pew research isnt necessarily good. It could mean that her vote is in but she’s doing much better with Republicans and Independents. This is why shes running around with slimey never Trump RINOS.
Respectfully, all attempts to compare 2020.early voting to 2024, are likely to be inaccurate due to covid. It was a major factor in November 2020. It’s not now.