Nevada Ping!
To add your name to the growing Nevada ping list, FReepmail me...
Nevada Ping!
To add your name to the growing Nevada ping list, FReepmail me...
| Source | Arizona | Georgia | Michigan | Nevada | N. Carolina | Pennsylvania | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Ref's Averages | Trump 49.5 (+2.8) - Harris 46.7 | Trump 48.6 (+1.5) - Harris 47.1 | Trump 48.9 (+1.7) - Harris 47.2 | Trump 48.0 (0) - Harris 48.0 | Trump 49.0 (+1.8) - Harris 47.2 | Trump 48.4 (+1.1) - Harris 47.3 | Trump 48.6 (+0.4) - Harris 48.2 |
| PJ's Averages | Trump 49.3 (+2.3) - Harris 47.0 | Trump 48.9 (+1.8) - Harris 47.1 | Trump 47.9 (+1.7) - Harris 47.2 | Trump 47.7 - Harris 48.2 (+0.5) | Trump 48.9 (+0.9) - Harris 48.0 | Trump 48.4 (+0.3) - Harris 48.1 | Trump 48.4 (+0.3) - Harris 48.1 |
| PJ's Probabilities | Trump 74.7% | Trump 68.9% | Trump 59.3% | Harris 55.7% | Trump 62.3% | Trump 54.8% | Trump 55.4% |
My Monte Carlo model produces this Electoral College result:
Trump 287 - Harris 251, with a 65% probability of Trump winning.
I expect Trump's ECV to grow as new polls keep coming in.
NOTE: The above result is using the New Jersey Polls from end of June that favored Trump. If I give NJ to Harris, the ECV result changes to this:
Trump 277 - Harris 261, with a 60% probability of Trump winning.
If I give NJ to Harris but assume a 1% bias against Trump (adjust Trump +1 and Harris -1), the ECV result changes to this:
Trump 297 - Harris 241, with an 81% probability of Trump winning.
If I give NJ to Harris but assume a 2% bias against Trump (adjust Trump +2 and Harris -2), the ECV result changes to this:
Trump 313 - Harris 225, with an 93% probability of Trump winning.
-PJ
Sorry, but I can’t / won’t respond to polls.
It feels much too much like divulging troop deployments to the enemy.
[They] will know how many of us have awakened to all [their] gaslighting,
shortly after the only poll that truly matters.
Nice work, TheRef.