| Source | Arizona | Georgia | Michigan | Nevada | N. Carolina | Pennsylvania | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Ref's Averages | Trump 49.5 (+2.8) - Harris 46.7 | Trump 48.6 (+1.5) - Harris 47.1 | Trump 48.9 (+1.7) - Harris 47.2 | Trump 48.0 (0) - Harris 48.0 | Trump 49.0 (+1.8) - Harris 47.2 | Trump 48.4 (+1.1) - Harris 47.3 | Trump 48.6 (+0.4) - Harris 48.2 |
| PJ's Averages | Trump 49.3 (+2.3) - Harris 47.0 | Trump 48.9 (+1.8) - Harris 47.1 | Trump 47.9 (+1.7) - Harris 47.2 | Trump 47.7 - Harris 48.2 (+0.5) | Trump 48.9 (+0.9) - Harris 48.0 | Trump 48.4 (+0.3) - Harris 48.1 | Trump 48.4 (+0.3) - Harris 48.1 |
| PJ's Probabilities | Trump 74.7% | Trump 68.9% | Trump 59.3% | Harris 55.7% | Trump 62.3% | Trump 54.8% | Trump 55.4% |
My Monte Carlo model produces this Electoral College result:
Trump 287 - Harris 251, with a 65% probability of Trump winning.
I expect Trump's ECV to grow as new polls keep coming in.
NOTE: The above result is using the New Jersey Polls from end of June that favored Trump. If I give NJ to Harris, the ECV result changes to this:
Trump 277 - Harris 261, with a 60% probability of Trump winning.
If I give NJ to Harris but assume a 1% bias against Trump (adjust Trump +1 and Harris -1), the ECV result changes to this:
Trump 297 - Harris 241, with an 81% probability of Trump winning.
If I give NJ to Harris but assume a 2% bias against Trump (adjust Trump +2 and Harris -2), the ECV result changes to this:
Trump 313 - Harris 225, with an 93% probability of Trump winning.
-PJ
Yes, I agree that older polls should matter less. I actually take them out of my average altogether. My approach is use the data the pollsters give you in the cross-tabs, shape that data with the right voter sample assumptions, then you’ve got something. The problem is dishonest pollsters like NYT/Sienna coming out with that nonsense PA poll today, and the Arizona one for that matter. They actually have Harris trailing by only five with men in PA, and by on three with white ID in PA. Give me a break! Can’t do much with polls like that. All you can do is adjust using party ID in a case like that because the bad party ID impacts all other categories. I like your model. do you put it on a website or just forums like this?
Interesting observations, PJ2.