There are likely no valid polling yet.
Measuring her against Trump when she was not going to be the nominee is probably not valid.
But be that as it may be, Trump’s lead has been sticky all year long and it was not because of Biden being old or anything of that sort.
It is because inflation, the border, the avalanche of prosecutions and general elitism. Trump is a populist candidate and that is something very difficult for them to defend. In fact, all those factors are difficult or impossible to defend.
So. October surprise. The ultimate surprise will be another assassination attempt, or three. They cannot let him win. They cannot conceal all the records because they know there will be someone here or there who makes copies.
They cannot let him win.
They are not in a pleasant place, that's for sure. Makes them... edgy.
> They cannot let him win.
They have all the cards, and next time they will kill him. Probably not another shooter -- guns can miss. I suspect their next attempt will take out more bystanders. It's not like they have any compunctions about collateral damage.
Banana republic jailing the opponent. Assassination. A coup d'etat to remove the stubborn old man. They're just getting things lined up.