Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine (2 year anniversary)

ORYX ^ | Since February 24, 2022 and daily | ORYX

[BeauBo]

Getting cold in Western Siberia oil country.

-22 degrees (F) in Novy Urengoy when I just checked.

It is forecast to briefly crack one degree above freezing this weekend, but that is likely the last moment above water’s freezing point for the next several months.

Urals grade’s pour point, where it stops flowing and waxes begin to harden, is between 5 to 14 degrees (above zero, Fahrenheit). The constituent Western Siberian crudes (prior to blending into Urals grade), might have lower or higher pour points, but generally speaking, -5 Fahrenheit should gum up any that is not kept flowing/heated.

At the beginning of December, the forecast is for about a week of hard Arctic freeze, -20 or -30 for a week straight, with daylight fading.

Be a shame if anything happened to that nice oil industry they have there...

[BeauBo]

Migration season has begun in Russia, with the first Flamingo flying North for the Winter.

Kyiv Post (13 Nov):

"Multiple explosions rocked the Russian city of Oryol in the early hours of Thursday, Nov. 13, as Ukraine reportedly launched long-range “Flamingo” cruise missiles against targets deep inside Russian territory...

...Ukraine’s General Staff confirmed that the country’s Defense Forces conducted coordinated overnight strikes against “several dozen” Russian military and logistical facilities across Russia and temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories...

...(The Ukrainian General Staff) statement marked the first official acknowledgment that Ukraine used a range of domestically produced long-range weapons during the operation — including the newly developed “Flamingo,” “Bars,” and “Liutyi” missile and drone systems."

[blitz128]

Coincidentally along with flamingo sightings there have been many reports of the once thought extinct longgasline double breasted russian miricus😂

[JonPreston]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1

Russian objective: Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City.

Ukrainian forces maintained positions or recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast.

Assessed Russian infiltrations: Geolocated footage published on November 11 indicates that Russian forces conducted an infiltration operation in southwestern Vovchansk (northeast of Kharkiv City).[49] ISW assesses that this event did not change the control of terrain or the forward edge of the battle area (FEBA) at this time.

Refinement of areas under Russian claims: Geolocated footage published on November 11 indicates that Ukrainian forces maintained positions or recently advanced in southwestern Vovchansk in an area where Russian sources previously claimed that Russian forces maintained a presence.[50]

Russian forces attacked northeast of Kharkiv City near Vovchansk, Synelnykove, and Vovchanski Khutory on November 11 and 12.[51] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Starytsia and Hatyshche (both northeast of Kharkiv City).[52]

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 83rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (69th Motorized Rifle Division, 6th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) reportedly continue to operate in the Kharkiv direction.[53]

Russian forces attacked northeast of Velykyi Burluk near Ambarne and toward Khatnie and east of Velykyi Burluk near Odradne and toward Hryhorivka on November 11 and 12.[54]

A Russian milblogger claimed on November 11 that Russian forces conducted a Shahed-type drone strike against a Ukrainian position near Prykolotne (north of Velykyi Burluk).[55]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2

Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kupyansk direction on November 12 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked northeast of Kupyansk near Dvorichanske; east of Kupyansk near Petropavlivka and Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi; and southeast of Kupyansk near Pishchane, Stepova Novoselivka, and Hlushkivka, and toward Novoosynove on November 11 and 12.[56]

The commander of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Kupyansk direction reported on November 12 that Russian forces are intensifying attempts to cross the Oskil River as worsening weather conditions in the direction degrade Ukrainian drone observation capabilities.[57] The brigade commander reported that Russian infantry is attempting to swim across the river after Ukrainian drone strikes destroyed Russian heavy equipment and motorcycles that attempted to cross the river. The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the direction reported that Russian forces recently conducted a roughly reduced platoon-sized motorized assault in the direction involving 15 motorcycles, all of which Ukrainian forces destroyed.[58] The spokesperson noted that Russian forces support motorized assaults with intense Molniya drone and Lancet loitering munition strikes.

Ukrainian Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration Head Oleh Synehubov reported on November 12 that Ukrainian forces are stabilizing the situation in Kupyansk.[59] Synehubov noted that roughly 600 residents remain in Kupyansk.

A Russian source claimed on November 12 that Russian forces are operating in Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi.[60] A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger refuted claims that Russian forces are operating in Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi on November 11.[61]

A Russian unit commander of the 68th Motorized Rifle Division (6th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) operating in the Kupyansk direction claimed on November 11 that Russian forces used new Zanoza first-person view (FPV) heavy bomber drones to destroy four long-distance Ukrainian crossings near Kupyansk in an effort to undermine Ukrainian logistics.[62] Russian newswire TASS reported that Zanoza drones have fiber optic cable controls, which make these drones resistant to electronic warfare (EW).[63]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 121st Motorized Rifle Regiment (68th Motorized Rifle Division) are reportedly operating in western Kupyansk.[64]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Borova direction on November 12 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked north of Borova near Bohuslavka; northeast of Borova near Borivska Andriivka; east of Borova near Nadiia; and southeast of Borova near Hrekivka and Tverdokhlibove and toward Novoserhiivka on November 11 and 12.[65]

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian Chernyi Voron Drone Detachment (245th Motorized Rifle Regiment, 3rd Motorized Rifle Division, 20th CAA, Moscow Military District [MMD]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian vehicles in Pisky-Radkivski (south of Borova).[66]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Lyman direction on November 12 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked near Lyman itself; northwest of Lyman near Novoselivka, Drobysheve, and Shandryholove and toward Korovii Yar; north of Lyman near Hlushchenkove, Ridkodub, Karpivka, Novyi Myr, and Stavky; northeast of Lyman near Kolodyazi; east of Lyman near Zarichne; and southeast of Lyman near Yampil on November 11 and 12.[67] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Novoselivka.[68]

A Russian milblogger acknowledged on November 12 that Ukrainian drone operations are hindering Russian advances near Yampil.[69]

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian Hyperion Unmanned Systems Battalion of the 25th CAA (Central Military District [CMD]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Yampil, Zakitne (south of Yampil), and Mykolaivka (east of Slovyansk).[70] Drone operators of the 237th Tank Regiment (3rd Motorized Rifle Division) and of the 16th Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian General Staff’s Main Directorate [GRU]) reportedly continue to strike Ukrainian positions in the Lyman direction.[71]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3

Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Siversk direction on November 12 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced in southern Siversk.[72]

Russian forces attacked northwest of Siversk near Dronivka; northeast of Siversk near Serebryanka; southeast of Siversk near Vyimka; and south of Siversk near Zvanivka on November 11 and 12.[73]

A Russian milblogger acknowledged on November 12 that Ukrainian drone operations are complicating Russian attacks in the outskirts of Dronivka.[74]

Russian forces recently marginally advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on November 12 indicates that Russian forces recently marginally advanced in the eastern outskirts of Ivanopillya (southeast of Kostyantynivka).[75]

Assessed Russian infiltrations: Geolocated footage published on November 12 shows Ukrainian forces striking a Russian-occupied building along the T-0516 Toretsk-Kostyantynivka highway south of Kostyantynivka.[76] ISW assesses that this event did not change the control of terrain or the forward edge of the battle area (FEBA) at this time.

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Volodymyrivka (southwest of Druzhkivka), apart from the southern part of the settlement, is a contested “gray zone.”[77]

Refinement of areas under Russian claims: Geolocated footage published on November 9 and 10 indicates that Ukrainian forces maintain positions or recently advanced west of Pleshchiivka (southeast of Kostyantynivka).[78]

Russian forces attacked near Kostyantynivka itself; east of Kostyantynivka near Predtechyne, Bila Hora, and Oleksandro-Shultyne; southeast of Kostyantynivka near Shcherbynivka, Pleshchiivka, and Ivanopillya; south of Kostyantynivka near Yablunivka and toward Berestok; south of Druzhkivka near Rusyn Yar; and southwest of Druzhkivka near Sofiivka and Volodymyrivka on November 11 and 12.[79] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Volodymyrivka.[80]

A Ukrainian brigade operating in the Kostyantynivka direction reported on November 12 that Russian forces recently attempted to exploit fog to conduct a massed infantry assault in the Kostyantynivka direction, but the fog hindered Russian forces’ ability to differentiate friendly from enemy forces.[81] The commander of a Ukrainian drone battalion operating in the Kostyantynivka direction reported that Russian forces are increasingly using unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) for supply deliveries due to Ukrainian drones with increased ranges impeding Russian logistics.[82]

Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces conducted Shahed-type drone strikes against civilian and energy infrastructure in Slovyansk and Kramatorsk overnight on November 11 to 12.[83]

Order of Battle: First-person view (FPV) drone and Molniya loitering munition operators of the Russian 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (150th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) are striking Ukrainian positions in Pleshchiivka.[84] Drone operators of the 98th Airborne (VDV) Division are reportedly using Molniya-2 loitering munitions to strike Ukrainian positions in Chasiv Yar (northeast of Kostyantynivka).[85] Drone operators of the 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (20th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th CAA) and the 238th Artillery Brigade (8th CAA) are reportedly coordinating drone strikes against Ukrainian equipment near Novopavlivka (southwest of Druzhkivka).[86]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Dobropillya tactical area on November 12 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked east of Dobropillya near Shakhove and Nove Shakhove and southeast of Dobropillya near Mayak, Dorozhnie, and Zapovidne on November 11 and 12.[87] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Zapovidne, Dorozhnie, Nove Shakhove, and Shakhove on November 11 and 12.[88]

A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger acknowledged on November 11 that Russian forces incurred heavy vehicle losses in a series of recent mechanized assaults toward the eastern outskirts of Shakhove (east of Dobropillya).[89]

A Russian milblogger claimed on November 11 that Ukrainian drone saturation in the Dobropillya tactical area in tandem with reduced foliage, is complicating Russian advances and that Russian forces leverage fog to advance.[90]

Russian forces recently advanced in the Pokrovsk direction.

[PIF]

Did they say what year?

—
That’s a technical question, best kept secret.

[BeauBo]

Refinery drops from July through October:

[BeauBo]

Trainwreck at sea for Russia crude oil shipments, because of President Trump’s Bone-Crushing Sanctions.

OilPrice.com (13 Nov):

U.S. Sanctions Strand a Third of Russia’s Crude Exports at Sea

“Nearly a third of Russia’s current seaborne oil export potential is now stuck in tankers as the U.S. sanctions upend crude flows and Russia’s top buyers, China and India, are still struggling to assess the implications of the sanctions, according to JPMorgan.

“Russia’s oil exports are entering a new phase of disruption as sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil are set to take effect, prompting its two largest customers — India and China — to sharply reduce their December purchases,” the Wall Street bank said in a note, as carried by Reuters.

According to JPMorgan’s estimates, as many as 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude oil, or nearly a third of its exporting potential, are on tankers at present, amid re-routing and slowed unloading...

...All but two Indian refiners have skipped placing orders for Russian crude for December after the U.S. sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil, sources with knowledge of the purchases told Bloomberg earlier this week.

In China, major state-owned refiners have reportedly suspended purchases of Russian crude oil, but the independent refiners in the Shandong province, the so-called teapots, are unlikely to halt imports of the cheap crude that has become a staple for their refineries.”

[dennisw]

“U.S. Sanctions Strand a Third of Russia’s Crude Exports at Sea”

Very good but we should have slapped those sanctions on years ago. What was stopping Zombie Joe? Trump had to get steamed at Vlad because of xyz.

[BeauBo]

I hope that you are well.

[JonPreston]

You called Zelensky a "young Churchill"

wadda Clown you are

[JonPreston]

To: FtrPilot

I hope that you are well.

He's fine. He finally realized the Ukraine war was nothing more than a Globalist Grift.

[JonPreston]

[JonPreston]

🍈

😂😂😂😂

🤡

The Minister of Graft has fled the country.

[JonPreston]

[BeauBo]

“we should have slapped those sanctions on years ago... Trump had to get steamed at Vlad because of xyz.”

I don’t think it was a matter of President Trump getting “steamed”.

He very deliberately developed the conditions to enable cutting off Russia’s oil revenue, starting immediately after his election (before inauguration).

Getting OPEC+ to backstab Russia and pump the replacement oil for Russia’s supply, was a big deal, and kind of GeoStrategic checkmate for Putin, but it required many months of ramping up production.

President Trump went to great lengths to establish that, and other essential pre-conditions with Russia’s big customers, and with our many Allies. It was a great and sustained and consistently focused program to shape the global oil market on both the supply and demand sides.

When the credible capability of the threat to destroy Russia’s oil revenue was clearly developed, President Trump offered Putin a (lower cost) face saving Diplomatic option as an off ramp, but Putin called Trump’s bluff. Now President Trump is pulling the trigger on the trap, and Putin is Finding Out the hard way.

These sanctions were not emplaced years ago, because the sudden withdrawal of Russian oil exports would have skyrocketed oil prices, and sent the world into a hard recession.

Now President Trump has masterfully prepared everything needed to actually do it. It is perfectly sequenced to coincide with the seasonal beginning of the hard freezing temperatures in Russia’s main Western Siberian oil fields (generally around 21 Nov, which (not) coincidentally is the effective date of Trump’s Bone-Crushing new sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft).

Saudi Crown Prince MBS will also (not) coincidentally arrive at the White House on 18 November, for what I expect will secretly be a final review before launch approval of the main Operation, with some contracts signed for other things, for show.

[dennisw]

“Getting OPEC+ to backstab Russia and pump the replacement oil for Russia’s supply, was a big deal”

Trump has been cultivating MBS and Saudi for months, where Zombie Joe regime antagonized him as much as possible. (Due to the Khashoggi killing). This had MBS inching towards Moscow. The Abraham accords help. Wacking Shite Iran helps. Allegedly Saudi has offered to sell India oil at the discounted Russian price.

You are right that Trumps sanctions are hurting Roooski severely, due to Trump laying the proper groundwork.

[JonPreston]

[JonPreston]

🍈

15,001 posted on 04/19/2025 6:00:31 AM PDT by JonPreston ( ✌ ☮️ )

[JonPreston]

[JonPreston]