A good deal of money now in the market, and entering the market comes from 401(k) accounts. Layoffs have already started and I think they will get much worse. People lose jobs, they stop the flow of 401(k) money into the market. And maybe they start pulling money out because they need to survive the emergency. That will drive things down real quick.
Commercial real estate is going to tumble this year no matter what.
Government and business loans need to be refinanced and the rates are a lot higher than they used to be.
I think this ends horribly.
There may be layoffs, but the number of people with jobs increases every month.
You see layoffs of 20,000 workers at one company, and you think that’s big. But there are 165 million jobs. Moreover, every month, there are 5 million job changes - somebody quits or retires, somebody else takes the job, old jobs are eliminated, new jobs are created, and new workers enter the workforce. It’s huge and very dynamic - the equivalent of the entire workforce turns over every three years.
US markets are the tallest midgets around. Where else are you gonna throw your money? The world invests in our markets.
Hong Kong is at the same level as 1997, China at 2017 levels.
Doomers will doom, and can be right in the end. But the market continues higher. Extreme low volatility is algo buy opportunities everyday. There will always be dips, ebbs and flows.