His improvement in Evangelicals and women was incredible. I watched that segment and you could see their faces drop. Without cheating he wins over 40 states.
Yes, this administration has been a disaster, and other than the dye in the wool democrats, everyone sees it... There is no metric you can measure the current administration by and conclude its been a success.
Dems will try to put thumbs on the scales, don’t be surprised if they try to get abortion referendums on ballots in swing states and others trying to force turnout and enthusiasm etc... I doubt it will be successful, but I fully expect it.
2024 is not 2020, the third parties will be on the ballots in a lot of places.. Biden is going to lose easily a few points nationally and in several key states to them... etc.
Right now, assuming Biden is the actual person on the ballot in November (which I still think they will toss him aside once he accepts the nomination, and replace him... WHY? because they changed their rules in 2022 to be able to just name someone should the candidate selected drop out/die or otherwise leave after they are formally nominated... They know he’s a dud, so I fully expect they will prop him up through their convention in August, to prevent having a fracture primary that will likely give them an even worse candidate, and name someone they thing can beat Trump “last minute”) he will lose handily, Trump will almost certainly get the 16 Map again, plus likely NV and possibly a few more.
We will see how it goes, but Biden has a record now, and its crap... so I expect you’ll see a lot more “ANYONE BUT BIDEN” voters than “anyone but Trump” voters.