Posted on 01/06/2024 3:45:06 PM PST by davikkm
A staggering 96% of Americans express deep worry about the current economic landscape, according to a survey by Intuit Credit Karma. The surprising link between low unemployment and imminent recessions is now causing widespread anxiety. While historically, a low unemployment rate signals a robust economy, recent data challenges this notion.
Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen highlighted the dichotomy, stating, “You don’t have a recession when you have 500,000 jobs and the lowest unemployment rate in more than 50 years.” However, a closer look at the chart reveals that unemployment often hits a cyclical low just before a recession hits.
(Excerpt) Read more at citizenwatchreport.com ...
Eventually we will have one. But predicting is different as many found out when they were wrong in 2021, 2022 and 2023. However, if you guess annually, you will win eventually.
Just keep flooding the country with illegal aliens.
Even when they already happened they’re difficult to predict.
Q1 & Q2 of 2022 were two consecutive contracting quarters-the textbook definition of recession. Until July 2022 at which point the word recession was redefined.
Is it harder to have an indicated recession 2Q of negative growth) because of inflation because inflation looks like positive growth?
Karl Denninger fisks the jobs report, and there’s blood and guts all over the floor.
“What y’all smoking over there at the Bureau of Lies and Scams?”
https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=250440
People getting full-time jobs which do not pay enough for them to live on is not a sign of a healthy economy. Sure, they can bundle up with two or three roommates and get by. Or maybe they can live with their parents. There is no middle-class in that scenario and no family formation either. That is what people are sensing.
We do not have a healthy economy at present. Government bleeds too much out of the economy and produces too little in return. Large corporations use government to protect themselves from competition and inhibit new businesses which might be more productive. The takers outnumber the makers.
The reason low unemployment precedes recessions is that low unemployment triggers the Fed to start raising interest rates. However, at the moment the Fed is at the END of a rate hiking cycle, and may be on the verge of CUTTING interest rates.
Thus the stupid fools who post about economics here mislead another crop of investors.
Is it harder to have an indicated recession (2Q of negative growth) because of inflation?
I work part time at Home Depot I had to pick up a part time job to supplement my retirement, in the last two years I can not believe how many seniors are working with me!! Home Depot is no longer hiring full time staff they are hiring a ton of part time seniors!! I feel so blessed everyday that I am healthy enough to work, I don’t know how seniors are surviving in this economy!!
That’s depressing. Now we’ll definitely not have one in 2024. I mean we’ve never had one close to each other. Yes recessions are awful but I think we need some desperate action for 2024.
A majority of the EMT crews who come to my hospitals ER are mostly men and women over the age of fifty.
Kids just don't want to work.
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