CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Rumblings from the far right on responses to any attempt to jail Trump on the banana republic hush money trial. Definite threat of conflict if the left tries to do a victory dance of sorts.
Trumps SS elements have made some primarily discussions with NY jail authorities. I don’t see this a capitulation but due diligence to keep the former president safe if this was to occur.
Economy-
More analysis showing that housing prices continue to climb to record levels.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
The Mechan circus continues. Justice Merchan is required Trump defense to present his closing argument before he hears the prosecution’s claims against him. Many legal observers - including many on the left are still not sure what they’re claiming Trump did. He held court through 8 PM last night and it should go to the jury today.
***
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) has announced that it will nominate incumbent President Joe Biden over a virtual call in order to get him on the ballot in Ohio. The move comes after Biden was facing the possibility of not being on the ballot in the rust belt state for the 2024 election.
OBSERVATION - Another reason for this nomination process is reportedly to avoid some sort of a floor fight at the convention.
Illegal Immigration –
The Supreme Court ruled today that Texas SB-4 law is constitutional which grants Txs the right to detain, arrest, and expel anyone crossing the Texas border illegally
OBSERVATION - This is big news for Texas and a growing number of other states that are looking at implicating or have implemented similar laws.
China –
With China’s latest exercise in blockading Taiwan winding down, analysts see more of the same exercises in the future. More disturbing is the appearance that China may well be accelerating its plans against Taiwan given the foreign and military policy chaos of the biden regime. An overt action may well cause Washington to seize up under too many global crises, giving China a window to establish the blockade and bolster it against threats to break it.
Russia -
*****
Putin threatens NATO countries representatives “not to play with statements on strikes on territory of Russia” He further warned that if Ukraine uses long-range weapons inside Russia, Russia will have to decide on extension of buffer zone.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs in the 80’s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 13 of 14 Shahed drones. Multiple Shahed drones were noted over Mykolaiv and Kherson regions. Ukrainian drone attack was reported in Armavir, Russia.
Russian attacks notably picked up along the Kreminna -Savtov front and Ocheretyne.
Russian efforts on the Kharkiv axis are showing evidence of stalling out. Same for the Chaziv Yar axis.
There was a great deal of consternation yesterday at the revelation that Patriot units targeted and hit Russian aircraft over Russian territory earlier this year. The upset was that they didn’t keep their targeting strictly within the boundaries of Ukraine and disputed territory.
Outlook —
The Russian offensive continues to show signs that it is reaching its high water mark. Part of this also concerns rumors that Russia may view cease fire / peace talks that include retaining territory captured since 2022. So far there is no evidence of Ukrainian plans for a summer offensive like last year. Low stockpiles of munitions and difficulty in procuring manpower are likely key items.
With NATO elements encouraging Ukrainian strikes on Russia territory using western long range munitions growing, we could see Ukraine doing so in the next few weeks. So far Ukraine has fought the deep war with its smaller drones and limited missiles. Russia has benefitted by being able to lazily grouping its forces on the Russian border, immune from the potential devastation of a ATACMS or other strike. Should Ukraine be set free to target these areas, life for Russian forces would get very complicated fast.
Europe / NATO General –
Western countries should let Ukraine strike military bases inside Russia with the sophisticated long-range weapons they are providing to Kyiv, French President Emmanuel Macron said, pressuring his allies in the most recent sign of a potentially significant policy shift that could help change the complexion of the war.
The question of whether to allow Ukraine to hit targets on Russian soil with Western-supplied weaponry has been a delicate issue since the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of its neighbor in February 2022.
Western leaders have mostly shrunk from taking the step because it runs the risk of provoking Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has repeatedly warned that the West’s direct involvement could put the world on a path to nuclear conflict.
His remarks came a day after NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg urged the alliance’s members to lift some of the restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western weapons.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Fierce fighting reports in central Rafah
- Global outrage against Israel continues
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
U.S. Defense Officials revealed today that after a severe storm this weekend off the coast of the Gaza Strip; a large section of the U.S. Army’s temporary-floating pier has “broken away” and drifted down the coast, with other sections of the pier having partially sunk in shallow waters. The pier, which was estimated to cost over $320 Million, is now inoperable with all further humanitarian aid shipments being halted. Portions of the pier are being moved to the southern Israeli city of Ashdod, where U.S. Central Command will repair it, Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh told reporters.
***
Biden regime just announced that the US may end its support of Israel as IDF ground operations reach central Rafah.
***
The US does not believe Israel’s actions in Rafah amount to a “major ground operation” that could cross a red line for President Joe Biden and trigger a possible change in US policy, the White House has said.
Spokesman John Kirby addressed reporters hours after Israeli forces reached the centre of the city in southern Gaza, and reportedly seized a strategically important hill.
Mr Biden recently said he would limit weapons supplies to Israel if it entered Rafah’s “population centres”, where hundreds of thousands of civilians are still believed to be sheltering.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cv22pl9p212o
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Fighting throughout Gaza, with reported fierce battles taking place in central Rafah.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli Channel 12 reports that several missiles launched from southern Lebanon landed in open areas near Shtoula in the western sector of the border.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Numerous Israeli security police raids throughout the west bank region and dozens of arrests of terror suspects.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Jordanian Foreign Minister: Spain’s recognition of the Palestinian state is evidence of its desire for stability in the region
Jordanian Foreign Minister: The future of the region must not remain in the hands of an extremist Israeli government
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel is facing fighting on two fronts. One is in Gaza proper. The second is with anti-Israeli govts around the world that are using the loss of life in Rafah as a weapon to wield against it. We have more details of this reportedly genocidal disaster - judge for yourself.
It is apparent Israel hit a vehicle carrying high ranking Hamas leaders with a small missile launched from a drone - not the 2000 lb behemoth pro-hamas elements claim. Same munitions used for other pinpoint strikes.
That strike apparently set off munitions - probably some rockets - that created secondary exploding. Fragments of those secondaries shot some 100-200 meters, striking a fuel storage area near tented areas outside the protected zone. This tertiary explosion is what spread to the tents, killing dozens.
Not that all this matter at this in this media frenzy driven attack. War is hell and in some manner, the gazans brought much of this on themselves and continue to by allowing Hamas et al to set up operations in these safe havens (in addition to Hamas continuing to use hospitals and mosques for military purposes). I don’t see Israel capitulating to the global pressure any time soon. They are committed to the operation to eliminate Hamas and to bow to the misguided and flat our false accusations of the anti-israeli community would be a defacto win for Hamas.
biden regime has laid out new guide rails for its red line in Rafah. Israels current operations are well within those lines. So I expect continued operations throughout Gaza, and especially Rafah for the near future.
Long term implications are potential loss of support that will be critical when Israel turns north to deal with the threat posed by Hezbollah.
Iran –
Biden administration is pressing European allies to abstain from a censure vote against Iran at a June meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency. British and French officials told the Biden administration they would move forward with the censure vote and that it was time to draw a line.
OBSERVATION - 0bama and his underling biden have bent over backwards for Iran and its efforts to develop the bomb. Much of Europe is within range of Iranian missiles, so that a terror strike by Iran with a nuke is much more dangerous to them than the US.
This further exposes the deep planted pro-Iranian / radial islamic elements in the US govt who are pushing the policy.
Syria -
Not to forget, the Syrian civil war continues with Assad and affiliated forces continuing to indiscriminately bomb civilians in the Aleppo and Idlib regions.
Misc of Note –
Massive thunderstorms with tornadoes and large hail have caused extensive power blackouts throughout the lower mid-west and Texas region. All should take note of this and make appropriate preparations for alternative lighting and cooking methods should a natural disaster hit you.
Looks like it's going to be a rough hurricane season too..
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
The regime surveillance state has been shown acting against citizens again. dailywire and America1stLegal sued DOJ for violating FOIA and uncovered secret records showing DOJ was tracking Moms for Liberty alongside the KKK, the Oath Keepers, and terms like swastika, hate crime, bullying, white supremacy, and confederate.
***
The ultimate goal of the democrat regime is to get a conviction of Trump by any means possible, thereby branding him a felon and a threat to democracy.
The democrats will have his name stricken from ballots; some jurisdictions may simply disqualify and refuse to count ballots cast for Trump. The internet dons may make his name and candidacy disappear tomorrow. The identical strategy works if there is a “miscarriage of justice” and Mr. Trump not convicted.
If Trump still wins in November, the Democrats will only have one path forward. They will seek to overturn the vote of the people. The irony of that choice, the rejection of a duly elected president of the United States by the party that lost the election, may just launch America into its second civil war.
https://www.wnd.com/2024/05/public-lynching-trump-coming-civil-war/
OBSERVATION - The growing crisis potential surrounding the November election has reached staggering levels. As I noted in previous post, biden has even threatened to use the military to stop a Trump presidency and the violence wings of the left are ready to break forth in greater violence than seen in the Floyd riots of 2020. There are so many potential triggers to a hot CW2 scenario that they are hard to count. Add to it the secondary and tertiary affects on the US economy and foreign situations that can spin out of control yielding everything from a global depression to a world war - the potential consequences are sobering, and being ignored by many.
IMHO opinion and planning, the worst case scenario is one where Trump beats this rap and the left ramps up violent protests in response. These protests will receive stout push back and combined with some well placed false flag events justify martial law - to stop the elections and to arrest those on the conservative right, which in turn will create chaos in the military ranks and in the public.
A conviction of Trump (which by everyone with an IQ greater than a rock can see) will be overturned, but not before the left labeling of “felon” reaches a crescendo. Yes, I think Trump will actually gain support as such a left campaign is an attempt to rally those who have gone sour on biden and his economic mess, among other policies, for voter turnout.
Calmer heads could prevail, but they are fewer and farther between. It is almost an inescapable conclusion that there will be serious violence as election day approaches and it may well continue for months afterwards.
I wish I could conclusively state that “X” is going to happen, but at this stage it would be impossible to do given the number of variables. So plan for the worst and hope for the best.
***
Evidence of the growing support for govt violence against political opponents - about nine in ten likely voters who “strongly approve” of Joe Biden’s job performance as president say they also approve of FBI agents having been authorized to use “deadly force” in the 2022 raid of former President Donald Trump’s home in Mar-a-Lago to obtain documents.
Fully 86% of voters who strongly approve of Biden also approve of the Justice Department’s authorization of “the use of deadly force” in the documents search – including 71% who “strongly approve” of deadly force – a new national Rasmussen survey finds.
Two-thirds (66%) of Democrat voters approve of the license to use deadly force during the raid of Trump’s home, including about half (47%) who strongly support the authorization.
In a separate question, voters were asked if they agree that there is a group of high-level “politicized thugs” who are using the FBI “as Joe Biden’s personal Gestapo.” Here, 48% agree the FBI is Biden’s personal Gestapo, while 43% disagree.
OBSERVATION - The perception of a growing Stasi or Gestapo aspect in the govt is demonstrating a growing fracture between the left and the right, creating a situation where either side can justify actions against the other in an enlarging arena of grievances.
Economy-
One of the top mortgage lenders in the United States is offering a new program that allows home buyers to put zero percent down on their mortgages.
United Whole Sale Mortgage is offering a new program that will allow first-time home buyers and people earning below or at 80% of an area’s average income to put zero down on their mortgages.
In a statement to Market Watch, chief operating officer of UWM, Melinda Wilner shared, “Homeownership is something we’re very passionate about.”
Previously, UWM offered buyers a rate of as little as 1% down.
Bank of America has also been offering zero-down mortgages for black and Hispanic Borrowers
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/05/housing-collapse-brewing-top-u-s-mortgage-lender/
OBSERVATION - This is dangerous territory in that it may cause many to buy more home than they can really afford. With the zero down, I would expect a higher interest rate - expressed over a larger balance. The combinations would result in the potential for many mortgages going into foreclosure, smacking the banks hard.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Court observers indicate that Judge Merchan was visibly agitated after a second note came out of the jury asking for the written instructions - all 55 pages worth. Apparently the judge didn’t allow for those instructions to follow the jury into the deliberation room.
As noted yesterday, Merchan’s jury instructions have turned the law on its head. The jury still has to unanimously convict Trump, but do not have to be unanimous on which crime Trump allegedly covered up with false ledger entries. As long as jurors are convinced he tried to cover up one or more of the crimes, they don’t have to be unanimous on which one it was.
The request for hard copy jury instructions, in addition to the other requests have given watchers the inference that there are some significant disagreements between jurors - potentially leading to a hung jury and a mistrial.
China –
After 166 days circling Earth, China’s secret spaceplane has ejected an unknown object into orbit, according to reports.
Little is known about the experimental spacecraft, other than the fact it is reusable. Even less is known about the technology that’s just been thrown into Earth’s rotation.
OBSERVATION - The Chinese space plane is viewed as a clone to the US’ space plane. Both systems are likely linked to anti- satellite and reconnaissance operations.
North/South Korea –
North Korea fired at least 10 apparent short-range ballistic missiles toward the waters off its eastern coast on Thursday, Seoul said, days after its attempt to put another spy satellite launch into orbit ended in a ball of fire.
South Korean officials said the short-range weapons had been fired from the Sunan area of Pyongyang, traveling around 350 kilometers (215 miles) before splashing down into the Sea of Japan.
In a statement, the military condemned the launches — which put the South Korean capital and a number of important military bases within range — and vowed to “respond overwhelmingly to any provocation.”
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/05/30/asia-pacific/north-korea-10-missiles-may-30/
OBSERVATION - Continued provocation by NK. One particular parallel may be linked to the reported number of failed Iranian missile launches against Israel a couple of months ago.
Some speculation that I concur with is that some believe that NK provided those missiles to Iran and poor construction / QAQC by NK was to blame. The missile launched by NK yesterday are of the same category as those Iranian missiles, so mass tests like this could be the result of NK working to increase the reliability of their missiles in order to avoid mass failures as Iran experienced.
Russia -
Putin threatens NATO countries representatives “not to play with statements on strikes on territory of Russia” He further warned that if Ukraine uses long-range weapons inside Russia, Russia will have to decide on extension of buffer zone.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday issued one of his more dire warnings yet, putting Europe on notice by commenting on their possessing small land areas and dense populations. The veiled threat is very ominous especially in light of the fact that Russia just wrapped up tactical nuclear drills near Ukraine…
“More threats from Putin just now amid recent calls by European politicians to allow Kyiv to use Western weaponry to strike targets inside Russia
He says they should “remember that, as a rule, they are states with a small territory but dense population” “
Putin told reporters gathered in Tashkent during an official visit to the central Asian country of Uzbekistan, which is a former Soviet Republic, “Constant escalation can lead to serious consequences.”
He also hinted at the prospect of nuclear war in posing: “If these serious consequences occur in Europe, how will the United States behave, bearing in mind our parity in the field of strategic weapons?”
“It’s hard to say – do they want a global conflict?” Putin questioned, warning that Ukraine hitting Russian territory with externally supplied long-range weapons would make the West directly involved in the conflict.
OBSERVATION - Putin continues with his escalation to deescalate tactic. In this instance is the growing support of western Europe to allow Ukraine to utilize the weapons they have provided to directly strike Russian territory. This opens up a wide number of strategic targets Ukraine can hit that potentially will have big payoffs.
Russia has been threatening this “red line” since the beginning of the war and Ukraine has crossed it time and again with its own weapons - with no Russian nuclear response as threatened. With rising anti-Russian sentiment in the west posing counter nuclear strikes will Russia follow up with its threats or look aside once again.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs in the 80’s and fair.
RUMINT –
Russian Troops Set to Expand by 200-300 Thousand, Says Ukrainian Defense Minister
The minister added that the current number of Russian forces stationed in Ukraine and along its borders stands at 500 thousand troops.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight Ukrainian air defense shot down 7 of 11 Kh-101 cruise missiles and 32 Shahed drones. The Russian missile attacks overnight have apparently focused on Starokostiantyniv Air Base in western Ukraine. Reportedly the trajectory of the missiles and drones bypassed Kyiv region, suggesting that ADA assets have gotten back to strength in that region.
Ukraine launched an overnight missile attack in Kerch, Crimea that damaged or destroyed four boats, two ferries, and a pilot boat, injuring five people, according to Russian channel ASTRA. The pilot boat ‘Mechta’ sank, while the ferries ‘Conroe Trader’ and ‘Vanguard’ were damaged, with the latter running aground. One crew member on ‘Conroe Trader’ is undergoing surgery, and four people on ‘Vanguard,’ including two 19-year-old trainees, were injured.
Additionally, off the west coast of Crimea, four KC 701 transport and landing boats were damaged, with two confirmed destroyed by Magra VS Naval drones.
Russian forces continued to press Chasiv Yar with no success.
Other analysts are noting that the situation at the front in the north of the Kharkov region has stabilized. Russian troops cannot advance further than Vovchansk, despite all attempts and huge losses.
They report that the Russian tactics have not changed significantly. Destroy the city to the ground with bombs and artillery, and then bring in infantry using mass meat assault tactics. The main change is that the Russians are using much less equipment than before, which may indicate a real shortage of armored vehicles. Motorcycle attacks have become a feature of the recent weeks of the war. However, their main strength, aviation, continues to operate actively
Poland announces it has given Ukraine permission to use all Polish-donated weapons to strike targets on Russian territory.
Poland has donated a dozen MiG-29 fighter jets, 335 Main Battle Tanks and more than 100 IFVs, howitzers and air defense systems.
Outlook —
Russia targeting Starokostiantyniv Air Base in western Ukraine may have a lot to do with the impending arrival of F-16 fighter/bombers to Ukraine. The base is currently home to the 7th Tactical Aviation Brigade “Petro Franko” flying Sukhoi Su-24M, Sukhoi Su-24MR, and Aero L-39C Albatros aircraft.
Growing evidence that the Russian offensive is running out of legs as areas where there have been breakouts are now pretty much halted. With it, the tactic of supporting maneuvers that assisted Russia’s initial breakouts. Now it seems each is fighting again on its on and the Ukranian meat grinder is taking hold.
It is still questionable as to how much of an Ukrainian counter offensive can be mustered. Ukraine took heavy losses in this defense. There are potential areas where counter attacks could be successful in nipping many of the Russian salients off. However i don’t hold much for Ukraine regaining much of the lost territory.
Growing support for western systems to be used against Russian territory continues to be a topic of potential war changing proportions in the short term. As with all war, the ebb and flow are dynamic. But the ability to strike key assembly, logistical and command targets in Russia proper has the potential to set Russian plans on their heels for a substantial period as they struggle to disperse and change operations in the face of the new Ukrainian threat.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- IDF seizes control of the whole Philadelphia corridor, discovering over a dozen new tunnels into Egypt.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Israel’s national security adviser and top Netanyahu aide Tzachi Hanegbi stated Wednesday: “We are now in the fifth month of 2024, which means we expect another seven months of fighting to deepen our achievements and achieve our goal of destroying the military and governmental capabilities of Hamas and Islamic Jihad.”
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Continuous Israeli bombing reported on various areas in Rafah, south of the Gaza Strip
The Israeli Army announced it has taken full control of the Philadelphia corridor, which is the narrow strip of land along the border between Gaza and Egypt. In the course of the action, additional tunnels from Gaza into Egypt were discovered.
Israel rotating forces in/out of Gaza. Givati Mechanized Brigade (84) re-entered the Gaza Strip after 3 days of rest. They operate in Rafah under the 162nd Division.There are now 8 IDF brigades operating throughout Gaza, 6 in Rafah with 2 more are expected to join Rafah soon. All in all roughly the equivalent of 2 Divisions.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
More of the same as overnight ATGMs and mortar shells were launched from Lebanon towards Israel
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
3 Hezbollah leaders were killed in an Israeli raid in Homs
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Another American MQ-9 Reaper UAV was lost in Yemen’s Marib.
This would be the sixth one shot down by the Houthis if confirmed.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Rajah operations are likely to accelerate in the face of global opposition. The best intel still shows that town as likely being where the remaining hostages are being held. The control of the Philadelphia corridor is critical as it shuts down weapons smuggling to hamas, forcing them to draw upon every dwindling supplies. There are still tens of miles of tunnels beneath Gaza where elements of Hamas are hiding, seeking to ride out the attack and pop up to strike IDF unexpectedly . With all the food Hamas has stolen from the humanitarian shipments, they have plenty to eat anyway.
The fact that Hamas has used the tunnels to reach into Egypt, under their “noses” is going to come around and bite them eventually. Especially if they have been used to ferry hostages out of Gaza and into locations in Egypt or elsewhere.
The remarks that Israel is anticipating the Gaza fight to last to the end of the year reflects the need to keep locating and hitting all these tunnels to finish Hamas. This also provides a glimpse at when a potential window to move against Hezbollah may occur. Israel will need to drawdown operations in Gaza before taking the big step against Hezbollah. However, Israel has been very successful in taking big bites around the edges - particularly in the targeting of Hezbollah and IRGC leadership, throwing big monkey wrenches in their plans to counter an Israeli attack as well as throwing doubts over its ability to launch a spoiling attack under disrupted chains of command.
The so called Rafah ‘massacre’ details are getting out and sources other than israel are beginning to concur that it wasn’t a direct strike on the 12 tents, but that Hamas munitions set off as secondary explosions did the damage. Won’t stop the anti-israeli press and govts though.
Misc of Note –
As GOPJ reminded me yesterday, the La Nina and high Gulf water temperatures are creating forecasts for a very big hurricane season. Double reason to get ready now, ahead of the crowd.