CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
The regime surveillance state has been shown acting against citizens again. dailywire and America1stLegal sued DOJ for violating FOIA and uncovered secret records showing DOJ was tracking Moms for Liberty alongside the KKK, the Oath Keepers, and terms like swastika, hate crime, bullying, white supremacy, and confederate.
***
The ultimate goal of the democrat regime is to get a conviction of Trump by any means possible, thereby branding him a felon and a threat to democracy.
The democrats will have his name stricken from ballots; some jurisdictions may simply disqualify and refuse to count ballots cast for Trump. The internet dons may make his name and candidacy disappear tomorrow. The identical strategy works if there is a “miscarriage of justice” and Mr. Trump not convicted.
If Trump still wins in November, the Democrats will only have one path forward. They will seek to overturn the vote of the people. The irony of that choice, the rejection of a duly elected president of the United States by the party that lost the election, may just launch America into its second civil war.
https://www.wnd.com/2024/05/public-lynching-trump-coming-civil-war/
OBSERVATION - The growing crisis potential surrounding the November election has reached staggering levels. As I noted in previous post, biden has even threatened to use the military to stop a Trump presidency and the violence wings of the left are ready to break forth in greater violence than seen in the Floyd riots of 2020. There are so many potential triggers to a hot CW2 scenario that they are hard to count. Add to it the secondary and tertiary affects on the US economy and foreign situations that can spin out of control yielding everything from a global depression to a world war - the potential consequences are sobering, and being ignored by many.
IMHO opinion and planning, the worst case scenario is one where Trump beats this rap and the left ramps up violent protests in response. These protests will receive stout push back and combined with some well placed false flag events justify martial law - to stop the elections and to arrest those on the conservative right, which in turn will create chaos in the military ranks and in the public.
A conviction of Trump (which by everyone with an IQ greater than a rock can see) will be overturned, but not before the left labeling of “felon” reaches a crescendo. Yes, I think Trump will actually gain support as such a left campaign is an attempt to rally those who have gone sour on biden and his economic mess, among other policies, for voter turnout.
Calmer heads could prevail, but they are fewer and farther between. It is almost an inescapable conclusion that there will be serious violence as election day approaches and it may well continue for months afterwards.
I wish I could conclusively state that “X” is going to happen, but at this stage it would be impossible to do given the number of variables. So plan for the worst and hope for the best.
***
Evidence of the growing support for govt violence against political opponents - about nine in ten likely voters who “strongly approve” of Joe Biden’s job performance as president say they also approve of FBI agents having been authorized to use “deadly force” in the 2022 raid of former President Donald Trump’s home in Mar-a-Lago to obtain documents.
Fully 86% of voters who strongly approve of Biden also approve of the Justice Department’s authorization of “the use of deadly force” in the documents search – including 71% who “strongly approve” of deadly force – a new national Rasmussen survey finds.
Two-thirds (66%) of Democrat voters approve of the license to use deadly force during the raid of Trump’s home, including about half (47%) who strongly support the authorization.
In a separate question, voters were asked if they agree that there is a group of high-level “politicized thugs” who are using the FBI “as Joe Biden’s personal Gestapo.” Here, 48% agree the FBI is Biden’s personal Gestapo, while 43% disagree.
OBSERVATION - The perception of a growing Stasi or Gestapo aspect in the govt is demonstrating a growing fracture between the left and the right, creating a situation where either side can justify actions against the other in an enlarging arena of grievances.
Economy-
One of the top mortgage lenders in the United States is offering a new program that allows home buyers to put zero percent down on their mortgages.
United Whole Sale Mortgage is offering a new program that will allow first-time home buyers and people earning below or at 80% of an area’s average income to put zero down on their mortgages.
In a statement to Market Watch, chief operating officer of UWM, Melinda Wilner shared, “Homeownership is something we’re very passionate about.”
Previously, UWM offered buyers a rate of as little as 1% down.
Bank of America has also been offering zero-down mortgages for black and Hispanic Borrowers
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/05/housing-collapse-brewing-top-u-s-mortgage-lender/
OBSERVATION - This is dangerous territory in that it may cause many to buy more home than they can really afford. With the zero down, I would expect a higher interest rate - expressed over a larger balance. The combinations would result in the potential for many mortgages going into foreclosure, smacking the banks hard.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Court observers indicate that Judge Merchan was visibly agitated after a second note came out of the jury asking for the written instructions - all 55 pages worth. Apparently the judge didn’t allow for those instructions to follow the jury into the deliberation room.
As noted yesterday, Merchan’s jury instructions have turned the law on its head. The jury still has to unanimously convict Trump, but do not have to be unanimous on which crime Trump allegedly covered up with false ledger entries. As long as jurors are convinced he tried to cover up one or more of the crimes, they don’t have to be unanimous on which one it was.
The request for hard copy jury instructions, in addition to the other requests have given watchers the inference that there are some significant disagreements between jurors - potentially leading to a hung jury and a mistrial.
China –
After 166 days circling Earth, China’s secret spaceplane has ejected an unknown object into orbit, according to reports.
Little is known about the experimental spacecraft, other than the fact it is reusable. Even less is known about the technology that’s just been thrown into Earth’s rotation.
OBSERVATION - The Chinese space plane is viewed as a clone to the US’ space plane. Both systems are likely linked to anti- satellite and reconnaissance operations.
North/South Korea –
North Korea fired at least 10 apparent short-range ballistic missiles toward the waters off its eastern coast on Thursday, Seoul said, days after its attempt to put another spy satellite launch into orbit ended in a ball of fire.
South Korean officials said the short-range weapons had been fired from the Sunan area of Pyongyang, traveling around 350 kilometers (215 miles) before splashing down into the Sea of Japan.
In a statement, the military condemned the launches — which put the South Korean capital and a number of important military bases within range — and vowed to “respond overwhelmingly to any provocation.”
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/05/30/asia-pacific/north-korea-10-missiles-may-30/
OBSERVATION - Continued provocation by NK. One particular parallel may be linked to the reported number of failed Iranian missile launches against Israel a couple of months ago.
Some speculation that I concur with is that some believe that NK provided those missiles to Iran and poor construction / QAQC by NK was to blame. The missile launched by NK yesterday are of the same category as those Iranian missiles, so mass tests like this could be the result of NK working to increase the reliability of their missiles in order to avoid mass failures as Iran experienced.
Russia -
Putin threatens NATO countries representatives “not to play with statements on strikes on territory of Russia” He further warned that if Ukraine uses long-range weapons inside Russia, Russia will have to decide on extension of buffer zone.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday issued one of his more dire warnings yet, putting Europe on notice by commenting on their possessing small land areas and dense populations. The veiled threat is very ominous especially in light of the fact that Russia just wrapped up tactical nuclear drills near Ukraine…
“More threats from Putin just now amid recent calls by European politicians to allow Kyiv to use Western weaponry to strike targets inside Russia
He says they should “remember that, as a rule, they are states with a small territory but dense population” “
Putin told reporters gathered in Tashkent during an official visit to the central Asian country of Uzbekistan, which is a former Soviet Republic, “Constant escalation can lead to serious consequences.”
He also hinted at the prospect of nuclear war in posing: “If these serious consequences occur in Europe, how will the United States behave, bearing in mind our parity in the field of strategic weapons?”
“It’s hard to say – do they want a global conflict?” Putin questioned, warning that Ukraine hitting Russian territory with externally supplied long-range weapons would make the West directly involved in the conflict.
OBSERVATION - Putin continues with his escalation to deescalate tactic. In this instance is the growing support of western Europe to allow Ukraine to utilize the weapons they have provided to directly strike Russian territory. This opens up a wide number of strategic targets Ukraine can hit that potentially will have big payoffs.
Russia has been threatening this “red line” since the beginning of the war and Ukraine has crossed it time and again with its own weapons - with no Russian nuclear response as threatened. With rising anti-Russian sentiment in the west posing counter nuclear strikes will Russia follow up with its threats or look aside once again.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs in the 80’s and fair.
RUMINT –
Russian Troops Set to Expand by 200-300 Thousand, Says Ukrainian Defense Minister
The minister added that the current number of Russian forces stationed in Ukraine and along its borders stands at 500 thousand troops.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight Ukrainian air defense shot down 7 of 11 Kh-101 cruise missiles and 32 Shahed drones. The Russian missile attacks overnight have apparently focused on Starokostiantyniv Air Base in western Ukraine. Reportedly the trajectory of the missiles and drones bypassed Kyiv region, suggesting that ADA assets have gotten back to strength in that region.
Ukraine launched an overnight missile attack in Kerch, Crimea that damaged or destroyed four boats, two ferries, and a pilot boat, injuring five people, according to Russian channel ASTRA. The pilot boat ‘Mechta’ sank, while the ferries ‘Conroe Trader’ and ‘Vanguard’ were damaged, with the latter running aground. One crew member on ‘Conroe Trader’ is undergoing surgery, and four people on ‘Vanguard,’ including two 19-year-old trainees, were injured.
Additionally, off the west coast of Crimea, four KC 701 transport and landing boats were damaged, with two confirmed destroyed by Magra VS Naval drones.
Russian forces continued to press Chasiv Yar with no success.
Other analysts are noting that the situation at the front in the north of the Kharkov region has stabilized. Russian troops cannot advance further than Vovchansk, despite all attempts and huge losses.
They report that the Russian tactics have not changed significantly. Destroy the city to the ground with bombs and artillery, and then bring in infantry using mass meat assault tactics. The main change is that the Russians are using much less equipment than before, which may indicate a real shortage of armored vehicles. Motorcycle attacks have become a feature of the recent weeks of the war. However, their main strength, aviation, continues to operate actively
Poland announces it has given Ukraine permission to use all Polish-donated weapons to strike targets on Russian territory.
Poland has donated a dozen MiG-29 fighter jets, 335 Main Battle Tanks and more than 100 IFVs, howitzers and air defense systems.
Outlook —
Russia targeting Starokostiantyniv Air Base in western Ukraine may have a lot to do with the impending arrival of F-16 fighter/bombers to Ukraine. The base is currently home to the 7th Tactical Aviation Brigade “Petro Franko” flying Sukhoi Su-24M, Sukhoi Su-24MR, and Aero L-39C Albatros aircraft.
Growing evidence that the Russian offensive is running out of legs as areas where there have been breakouts are now pretty much halted. With it, the tactic of supporting maneuvers that assisted Russia’s initial breakouts. Now it seems each is fighting again on its on and the Ukranian meat grinder is taking hold.
It is still questionable as to how much of an Ukrainian counter offensive can be mustered. Ukraine took heavy losses in this defense. There are potential areas where counter attacks could be successful in nipping many of the Russian salients off. However i don’t hold much for Ukraine regaining much of the lost territory.
Growing support for western systems to be used against Russian territory continues to be a topic of potential war changing proportions in the short term. As with all war, the ebb and flow are dynamic. But the ability to strike key assembly, logistical and command targets in Russia proper has the potential to set Russian plans on their heels for a substantial period as they struggle to disperse and change operations in the face of the new Ukrainian threat.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- IDF seizes control of the whole Philadelphia corridor, discovering over a dozen new tunnels into Egypt.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Israel’s national security adviser and top Netanyahu aide Tzachi Hanegbi stated Wednesday: “We are now in the fifth month of 2024, which means we expect another seven months of fighting to deepen our achievements and achieve our goal of destroying the military and governmental capabilities of Hamas and Islamic Jihad.”
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Continuous Israeli bombing reported on various areas in Rafah, south of the Gaza Strip
The Israeli Army announced it has taken full control of the Philadelphia corridor, which is the narrow strip of land along the border between Gaza and Egypt. In the course of the action, additional tunnels from Gaza into Egypt were discovered.
Israel rotating forces in/out of Gaza. Givati Mechanized Brigade (84) re-entered the Gaza Strip after 3 days of rest. They operate in Rafah under the 162nd Division.There are now 8 IDF brigades operating throughout Gaza, 6 in Rafah with 2 more are expected to join Rafah soon. All in all roughly the equivalent of 2 Divisions.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
More of the same as overnight ATGMs and mortar shells were launched from Lebanon towards Israel
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
3 Hezbollah leaders were killed in an Israeli raid in Homs
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Another American MQ-9 Reaper UAV was lost in Yemen’s Marib.
This would be the sixth one shot down by the Houthis if confirmed.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Rajah operations are likely to accelerate in the face of global opposition. The best intel still shows that town as likely being where the remaining hostages are being held. The control of the Philadelphia corridor is critical as it shuts down weapons smuggling to hamas, forcing them to draw upon every dwindling supplies. There are still tens of miles of tunnels beneath Gaza where elements of Hamas are hiding, seeking to ride out the attack and pop up to strike IDF unexpectedly . With all the food Hamas has stolen from the humanitarian shipments, they have plenty to eat anyway.
The fact that Hamas has used the tunnels to reach into Egypt, under their “noses” is going to come around and bite them eventually. Especially if they have been used to ferry hostages out of Gaza and into locations in Egypt or elsewhere.
The remarks that Israel is anticipating the Gaza fight to last to the end of the year reflects the need to keep locating and hitting all these tunnels to finish Hamas. This also provides a glimpse at when a potential window to move against Hezbollah may occur. Israel will need to drawdown operations in Gaza before taking the big step against Hezbollah. However, Israel has been very successful in taking big bites around the edges - particularly in the targeting of Hezbollah and IRGC leadership, throwing big monkey wrenches in their plans to counter an Israeli attack as well as throwing doubts over its ability to launch a spoiling attack under disrupted chains of command.
The so called Rafah ‘massacre’ details are getting out and sources other than israel are beginning to concur that it wasn’t a direct strike on the 12 tents, but that Hamas munitions set off as secondary explosions did the damage. Won’t stop the anti-israeli press and govts though.
Misc of Note –
As GOPJ reminded me yesterday, the La Nina and high Gulf water temperatures are creating forecasts for a very big hurricane season. Double reason to get ready now, ahead of the crowd.
That's a bad idea on several levels.
It's bad for the lender since the homebuyer isn't invested in the purchase. Walk-away becomes much easier.
It's bad for the homebuyer because much more needs to be financed.
I plan to have 25-50% down when I make my move.
Very interesting Godzilla. Thanks.
In order for the government to buy their loans, they have to do a certain amount of low income loans.
All the more reason to invest now and this summer in camping supplies,food, energy, and water purification systems.
Outdoor camping supplies provides an opportunity to make and life-saving essential, and comfort purchases.
Supplies can be made through commercial vendors, yard sales, garage sales, moving sales, and estate sales at reduced prices.
And since my backyard ends at a saltwater stream that connects two bays - this could be a rough hurricane season for me. I'm hoping I'm wrong...
Words escape me this morning following yesteday’s verdict. I mentally knew that such was very likely given how the court was stacked against Trump, by my normalcy bias kept hoping that true American justice would win out. The impact was visceral, this is clearly no longer the nation I grew up in.
With yesterday’s kangaroo court ruling, this country has entered the most dangerous uncharted waters ever in its history. In their desperation, democrats have burned the justice system to the ground, the gates are open and the rest of the nation may soon feel the wrath of the regime’s maniacal quest to remain in power.
This is far from over folks. But America has crossed a Rubicon of sorts. May 30, 2024 will be remembered in history books (should things last that long) as being as fateful as Pearl Harbor, 9/11 and Ft Sumter. It all depends on how Americans respond to this outrage. So far the blowback appears to be large. Will that energy be maintained through to Nov? Time will tell.
To the democrats - a warning that the bell can never be unrung. Will this turn to violence? If so, its on the democrats. Further, this now opens democrats up to similar treatment in the future.
Keep your powder dry, hold your fire for now. They want an excuse to crack down on you - to usher in their full blown, military backed totalitarian state. We are entering a very dangerous period. Prepare now.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Speaking at the Copenhagen Democracy Summit earlier this month, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen suggested the audience think of information manipulation as a virus and then said it’s better to vaccinate than treat the infection.
At the Copenhagen Democracy Summit, von der Leyen pontificated that “research has shown that pre-bunking is more successful than de-bunking. Pre-bunking is the opposite of de-bunking. In short, prevention is preferable to cure.”
Pre-bunking is an approach based on the psychological theory of “inoculation,” which suggests that exposing people to weakened doses of misinformation can help them develop “mental antibodies” against false news.
https://expose-news.com/2024/05/30/people-should-be-vaccinated-against-wrongthink/
OBSERVATION - Information control and censorship of ‘mis-information’ are still big on the globalist agenda. Here we have a heaping dose of propaganda to set the desired thoughts of people’s minds along the desired course and to write off contrary thoughts and opinions.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Several Students for Justice in Palestine chapters are set to travel to Washington D.C. to “surround the White House” just days after Hamas and other Palestinian organizations issued a call for students to “besiege” President Biden’s residence.
Students for Justice in Palestine at both North Carolina State University and Duke University have posted a graphic for the June 8 protest, which reads “Biden, we are your red line. Stop the genocide. Surround the White House!”
”Biden can’t draw the line, but we have. On June 8, we’ll come together from across the country and surround the White House. Wearing red, and raising our demands high, we’ll show the world that we are the red line,” the groups wrote in the Instagram post.
The ANSWER Coalition and Peoples Forum NYC posted on Instagram that buses are being made available for transportation to the event from all over the country, including Dearborn, Michigan; Des Moines, Iowa; Portland, Maine; and more.
The announcement of the protest comes just one day after a group of Palestinian organizations, including terror organizations Hamas and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, released a message to college students through the “Student Frameworks Secretariat” that called on them to “besiege the White House.”
OBSERVATION - This would continue a trend by the socialist leftists of protesting democrats in control of the govt. Unusual in that it reflects a continued battle within the party over israel, one that these far leftists are willing to go to the mat over.
Note also the link to terrorists organizations apparently calling the shots to some degree. Potential for violent actions associate with this ‘protest’ are high.
***
More and more news reports of assaults by individuals (often illegals) using machetes (or other large knives) appearing. These events are all over Europe as well as in the US - primarily in urban centers. Historically, prior to the ongoing great replacement, machete wars were common in Africa and some locations in central/south America. Easy to get in the US, use in gun control frenzied cities like NY is on the rise IMHO. This is an aspect to keep in mind. Illegal gangsters will still find a way to get guns, but for the rank and file criminal illegals, machetes seem to be the current weapon of choice.
Maintain your situational awareness now more than ever.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
Commentator Wayne Allyn Root is claiming he has insider information from within the CIA that there are impending waves of “Red Dawn” terror attacks coming soon to the USA. This is based on the following assumptions -
- (Tens of ) Thousands of terrorist who’ve entered the country illegally over the past three plus years.
- Simple. Inexpensive. All our enemies would need to do is the following: Coordinate 50 groups of terrorists to walk into supermarkets, department stores, train stations, airport terminals, hotel lobbies, restaurants, nightclubs, theatres and schools. 50 groups at the exact same time, in 50 cities across the country. And start killing.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/05/wayne-root-my-cia-sources-say-biden-administration/
OBSERVATION - This scenario has been postulated for literally decades here on FR and Threat Matrix, so this isn’t anything new. I question the validity of his sources, who also claim such an attack in imminent. On the face, the potential is very much there - especially from the radical islamic sector - as it matched its modus operandi from other global attacks closely. Given the progress of the Gaza war and degrading relations with Iran, such an attack is well within possibility.
So I won’t dismiss his claims out right, but we need a little back up apart from unnamed sources in the CIA.
Economy-
Pending home sales plunge to lowest level in four years as buyers steer clear of 7% mortgage rates
***
The U.S. economy grew less than previously thought in the first three months of the year, expanding at an annual pace of just 1.3 percent, revised government data showed Thursday.
The downward revision was primarily driven by data showing that consumer spending grew by significantly less than previously estimated.
This was the smallest expansion in gross domestic product in almost two years. The prior estimate had the economy growing at a 1.6 percent pace in the first quarter.
OBSERVATION - Watch the MSM bury this down grade with other news. The economy is in poor shape and not thriving as the regime claims
***
A poultry farm in southern Illinois housing 1.2 million chickens caught fire on Wednesday night. Farm is home to one of the largest egg production facilities.
Another had to kill some 4 million due to avian flu
OBSERVATION - Poultry prices will continue to be high for the near term.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
The guilty verdicts against trump caused his online donation site to melt down for a period of time from all the donors trying to make contributions.
***
Merchan set July 11 for sentencing - just 4 days before the RNC convention. Analysts note that this is unlikely to occur as appeals will be well underway, haunting any sentencing - at least when the justice system used to work.
***
In a unanimous decision, the Supreme Court ruled today that New York officials violated the First Amendment by coercing insurance and banking companies to no longer do business with the National Rifle Association as punishment for the group’s gun views.
***
The bold faced hypocrisy of the democrats is in full bloom - on one hand demanding that the ‘decision’ of the NY kangaroo court be honored as proper justice while going into full attack mode against the USSC.
***
Noted attorney Alan Dershowitz said on Thursday that he doubts a New York appellate court will overturn former President Donald Trump’s conviction in his Manhattan trial because judges are ‘terrified’ to appear to help Trump.
“I don’t know whether the case will be reversed on appeal. I don’t think it would be reversed by the appellate division,” Dershowitz continued. “These are judges who are terrified of being perceived of as helping Trump in any way. Don’t know whether or not the New York Court of Appeals in Albany will have the ability to not consider the impact it will have on individuals as judges. Surely the Supreme Court wouldn’t, but that’s a way off and there wouldn’t be a decision by the Supreme Court, probably before the election.”
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden didn’t give his victory dance address to the nation following the jury verdict. Did some one figure out the optics of that would be hideous.
***
Biden reportedly approved a policy change that will permit Ukraine to use US-provided weapons, including GMLRS rockets — but not longer-range ATACMS missiles — to strike within Russian territory near the border with Kharkiv Oblast.
***
The developing ‘virtual’ nomination of biden for the presidency in order to meet the Ohio filing deadline may turn around and bite democrats. There is a lot of political time between this nomination and the convention - a lot of things can happen. The biggest being some sort of event that forces biden to drop out - such as medical conditions or other legal issues. Locking him in now in the face of apparently crashing poll numbers - well, limits their options greatly.
North/South Korea –
North Korea said on Friday it had fired 18 short-range ballistic missiles during a drill as a demonstration of its willingness to launch a pre-emptive strike against South Korea’s “gangsters’ regime” if necessary to counter an attack.
KCNA said artillery troops successfully hit the target of an island about 365 km (230 miles) away as Kim Jong Un oversaw the demonstration at the launch site. It did not identify the island.
Photos published by state media showed 18 missiles, identified by experts as KN-25s, rising into the air from mobile launchers.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/norht-korea-missile-salvo-south-korea/2024/05/31/id/1166923/
OBSERVATION - Follow up on yesterday’s report. It is believed that NK is supplying these missiles to Russia as debris from recent rocket attacks in Kharkiv attest to.
Russia -
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russia’s Medvedev says Moscow “is not bluffing” when it talks about the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons.
***
Moscow will perceive the sending of F-16 aircraft to Ukraine as a deliberate signal from NATO in the nuclear field. Sergei Lavrov said in an interview with RIA Novosti
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs in the 80’s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 4 Shahed drones and Iskander-K missile overnight.
In Kharkiv, a Russian missile strike targeted a five-story residential building, resulting in the tragic loss of 4 lives and leaving 25 people injured. Further missile strikes in the vicinity followed the initial attack, with a total of five hits recorded in the Novobavarskyi District.
Fragments of a NK rocket have been identified in Kharkiv.
General Staff of Armed forces of Ukraine confirms missile strikes with Neptun missiles at the ferry and oil terminal in Kavkaz port in Krasnodar Krai of Russia
During the night, air defense systems destroyed and intercepted five anti-ship missiles and 29 drones over the Krasnodar Krai, - the Russian Ministry of Defense reports. UAVs was also destroyed over the territory of the Voronezh, Belgorod and Tambov regions.
Sweden will transfer to Ukraine an ASC 890 radar reconnaissance and control aircraft. There is currently no such equipment in Ukraine.
Biden reportedly approved a policy change that will permit Ukraine to use US-provided weapons, including GMLRS rockets — but not longer-range ATACMS missiles — to strike within Russian territory near the border with Kharkiv Oblast.
Kharkiv Front -
Russia is building up forces near the northern part of Ukraine’s Kharkiv region where it launched an offensive this month, but it still lacks the troop numbers to stage a major push in the area, Ukraine’s top commander said Thursday.
Ukraine says it has stabilized the front in the northeastern Kharkiv region where Russian forces launched a cross-border assault on May 10 that opened a new front in the 27-month-old war and stretched Kyiv’s outnumbered troops.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/ukraine-russia-war/2024/05/30/id/1166743/
Outlook —
Ukraine made two strikes on harbor and related facilities around the Kersch bridge in the past couple days. Lack of sufficient Russian ADA interdiction suggests that Ukraine has seriously degraded the capabilities of the Russians in Crimea.
Another big ticket item is the announcement of the delivery of ASC 890 radar reconnaissance and control aircraft to Ukraine. These are similar in function to the US AWAC systems - providing air control to combat aircraft as well as early warning of enemy activity such as cruise missiles or other airframes. Such a platform will greatly enhance Ukraine’s utilization of their F-16s as well as their other combat aircraft, giving them a potentially significant advantage over Russia.
With the US along with European allies increasingly willingness to allow Ukraine to utilize their given systems to target Russian sites, things may get interesting fast. It is a target rich environment on the Russian side of the border and effective attacks by Ukraine will force Russian planners to greatly alter operations. No longer will they be considered ‘safe’ and allow operations as normal.
Ground fighting will continue to be locally fierce and grueling. Russia’s current minor gains are coming at an increasingly high cost. Suggestions that Russia is moving more forces as reserve in the Kharkiv front (and likely going to potential operations opposite of Sumy) are a concern, but don’t appear to be sufficient enough at this time to do much as Russia has lost the element of surprise in these regions.
The overall enormity of Russia’s manpower surge in the region is interesting. The original invasion utilized around 290,000 troops. Currently it is estimated Russia has about 400,000 - 500,000 troops in theater. Since the start of the war Russia has suffered over 500,000 kia/wia losses.
Russia has placed its economy on war time mode, but with sanctions, replacement of key battlefield systems such as modern tanks and aircraft are severely limited, forcing Russia to dig even deeper into mothballed equipment stored from the end of the cold war. I’ve noted previous that OSINT analysis of open source imagery suggests that these stored tanks and armor are quickly running out - less than a years worth at current burn rates.
Ukraine is facing similar long term shortages. The combined European/US support has drained stockpiles and are exceeding production rates for key items like artillery and air defense rockets. Ukraine has also suffered severe losses in personnel and are facing shortfalls in replacements.
My forecast continues to be Russia forcing the fight to try to maintain the initiative and gain as much as they can before Ukraine’s rearming and new weapons systems come on line. More and more meat grinder actions will continue to be the norm.
Europe / NATO General –
Prime Minister of Hungary - Europe is entering the stage of preparation for war with Russia
***
Ukraine is allowed to fire on Russian territory with military equipment supplied from Germany. According to SPIEGEL information, the government now wants to allow this. Other Western partners also allow this
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas rejects more negotiations without an unconditional ceasefire by Israel.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
The Israeli army has fully removed the US-military built pier from the coast of Gaza, Press Sec Sabrina Singh says. The pier sections have been relocated to Ashdod for repair and rebuilding.
***
Hamas announces that it will not agree to negotiate a hostage deal as long as fighting continues: “told the negotiators we will be willing to negotiate when the fighting stops”
***
Netanyahu’s Likud responds to the decision by Gantz’s party to advance a bill to dissolve the Knesset: “In the midst of a war, Israel needs unity, not division. The dissolution of the unity government is a reward for Sinwar, a surrender to international pressures and a fatal blow to the efforts to free our hostages “
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israeli military says it has completed operations in Jabaliya, Gaza for now.
Hamas fired a missile from a United Nations-run school in Rafah, Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) reported Thursday, in the latest of its social media updates on the war against the Palestinian terrorist group in Gaza.
“An anti-tank missile was fired from an UNRWA school toward our troops. IDF forces operated in a medical clinic nearby, when an explosive in a booby-trapped tunnel shaft detonated and killed 3 soldiers. During later scans in the school, we found large quantities of weapons.”
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
According to a Senior Israeli Defense official, the order has now been given to the IDF Northern Command and other forces in northern Israel to expand military operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
***
The Israeli Army: We monitored the fall of missiles launched from Lebanon towards Zarit in the Western Galilee, without causing any casualties
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Speaker of the Slovenian Parliament: We will approve recognition of the State of Palestine on Tuesday
Swedish security service: Iran has directed security-threatening activity against representatives of other states perceived as enemies of the government, it may be about damaging Israeli and Jewish interests, goals and activities in Sweden - Reuters News
——— FORECAST ————————-
The statement that IDF is going to expand military operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon is interesting. From what Israeli leadership has stated since October 2023, Gaza will be dealt with first before turning north. This announcement seems to be moving the timetable up several notches. The scope of ‘expanded operations’ is also vague, but there is a hint of a degree of ground operations associated given that the IAF has been running some very extensive operations against Hezbollah.
Gaza fighting continues to be locally fierce. Israel is systematically clearing zones of Hamas and locating tunnels. It will be more than a month before the first phase of the Rafah operation ends and it switches to the baiting of Hamas forces that have gone to ground to come back out to be hit again, the tactic being used in the central and northern portions of Gaza.