Posted on 12/04/2023 6:37:48 AM PST by Kaiser8408a
Well, at least they helped rid the world of mean tweets
That’s because SF has the most to lose. 400sf condos for 1.5 million have a lot of room to descend.
That’s a shame
They are vying for the “Who can trash our city like Detroit?” prize.
San Francisco sellers are going end up selling homes for $25.00 like Detroit did crack house on every block.
Are we supposed to be upset that the prices are too high or that they are coming down? I’m confused.
Property values in my neighborhood - by the beach in Jupiter/Juno Beach are still skyrocketing.
Housing costs going up is terrible news.
Housing costs going down in terrible news.
Remind me what you would consider good news?
Downtown San Fran passed Detroit years ago.
Let’s see what Wolf Richter has to say.
Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, Nov. Update: From 2022 Highs, San Francisco -11%, Seattle -10%, Las Vegas -6%, Phoenix -6%, Portland -5%, Denver -5%, Dallas -5%, San Diego…
20-City index below 2022 high, 9 metros below 2022 highs, 10 metros set new highs. The unsavory “National” index cocktail in the headlines today gets shredded.
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/11/28/most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-november-from-2022-highs-san-francisco-11-seattle-10-las-vegas-6-phoenix-6-portland-5-denver-5-dallas-5-san-diego-2-los-angeles/
Prices of New Houses Drop Further, -18% Year-over-Year, Sales Drop, High Inventories Rise Further, Supply Jumps
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/11/27/prices-of-new-houses-drop-further-18-year-over-year-sales-drop-high-inventories-rise-further-supply-jumps/
Home Sales Collapse, Prices Drop Further, Supply Jumps. People Are Finally on Buyers’ Strike
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/11/21/home-sales-collapse-prices-drop-further-supply-jumps-people-are-finally-on-buyers-strike/
“Leading Economic Index” Predicts Recession for Early 2024, after Having Predicted a Recession for Late 2022, Early 2023, Mid-2023, and Late 2023
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/11/20/leading-economic-index-predicts-recession-for-early-2024-after-having-predicted-a-recession-for-late-2022-early-2023-mid-2023-late-2023/
The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: Prices Drop to where They’d Been 2 Years Ago, Sales Swoon, Supply Rises
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/11/15/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-canada-prices-drop-to-where-theyd-been-2-years-ago-sales-swoon-supply-rises-further/
Surging “Mortgage Demand” and “Declining Spending,” Really? Let’s Have a Look at Reality
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/11/15/surging-mortgage-demand-and-declining-spending-really-lets-have-a-look-at-reality/
In spite of SF being in a geologically volatile area, insurance is still offered for these outrageously valued properties.
Meanwhile, in Florida insurance rates are skyrocketing, if you can find it, and they are accusing Trump of valuation fraud!
“400sf condos for 1.5 million have a lot of room to descend”
...especially after the next big earthquake hits SF.
;-)
This is how bubbles work.
I was in Cali as the dot com bubble burst.
The housing went from going up 50 to 100k every few months for no reason, to losing 30% of their value overnight.
Of course a few years later they were right back to where they were and higher...
So, I wouldn’t worry.
Other than when a town gets abandoned, as long as you aren’ forced to sell you will be fine if you wait it out.
The exceptions are places where its a small town dependent on an industry and that industry pulls out...in those cases, housing prices can decline and never recover.
No risk the Bay area is going to be fully abandoned anytime soon.
Glad I left Memphis for good in 1972.
The Bay Area itself may be fine—but I could easily see a scenario where a major earthquake hits SF while the national economy is in the toilet and it is just cheaper to let the rubble stay where it is.
Not gonna happen.
San Fran (and other places) absolute are going to get harmed by the commercial property collapse that is happening... But that’s not just in San Fran, that’s everywhere.
However, Bay area is not going to lose so many people that its real estate prices for housing are going to plummet and stay there.
Banks are likley to be left holding some major losses as the commercial real estate collapse continues, but not any chance that you are going to see piles of rubble stay in place should an earthquake hit the city.
Folks need to understand, everything you get from China passes through west coast ports... EVERYTHING. They get a huge economic boom from this alone that you subsidize every time you go to wal mart or order off amazon.
Property values in San Fran will never ever drop to where rubble would be left sitting and nothing rebuilt.
It may not be a big overpriced condo tower that gets rebuilt, but something will take up that real estate.
SmartAsset Advisors, LLC (”SmartAsset”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Financial Insight Technology*
Cities Where Population Has Decreased the Most – 2023 Study
Published on November 8, 2023
Written by Jaclyn DeJohn
When a city’s population declines – whether birth rates go down, deaths increase, or people simply move to another area – it can affect the housing market, small businesses, employment and other factors. Paying attention to demographic changes can help residents, governments and businesses understand new trends and inform how to best position themselves.
With this in mind, SmartAsset ranked 344 of the largest U.S. cities [that had a population of 100,000 or higher in 2022] based on the largest population declines over five years between 2017 and 2022.
Key Findings
Paradise, Nevada lost 22% of its population despite population growth across the Southwest. Many cities in Nevada, Arizona and Texas topped the list for the highest population growth between 2017 and 2022, but Paradise bucks that trend. The latest population count was 183,321, down from 235,123 residents in 2017. This rate of decline is almost double that of second-place Jackson, Mississippi (-12.7%).
California cities make up 40% of the top 25 places where the population decreased most. El Monte had the fifth-highest population shrinkage studywide, losing 9.3% of its population. San Francisco ranked sixth overall with a 8.6% decrease over five years. Santa Ana (-7.8%), Glendale (-6.8%), Inglewood (-6.3%), San Jose (6.2%), Pasadena (-5.9%), Concord (-5.5%), and Corona (5.0%) also topped the list.
The population of Elgin, Illinois decreased by 7% in just one year. While this city has a five-year population decline of 4.2%, Elgin saw the highest one-year population decline. Residents here dropped to 109,634 in 2022 from 117,850 just a year prior.
10 Places With the Biggest Five-Year Population Declines
1. Paradise, Nevada
Paradise experienced a significant population drop of about 22.0% over the past five years, resulting in a 2022 population of 183,321. The city’s gender distribution leans slightly towards females at 50.9%.
2. Jackson, Mississippi
Jackson saw a decline of approximately 12.7% in its populace from 2017 to 2022. Most recently housing 146,019 residents, the city has a predominant female majority at 53.46%.
3. East Los Angeles, California
East LA reported a population reduction of roughly 10.0% in the last five years. The 2022 census showed 112,965 residents, with men slightly outnumbering women at 51.7%.
4. Aurora, Illinois
Aurora faced a population decrease of nearly 10.0% over five years. The 2022 census recorded 182,336 inhabitants, with females slightly outnumbering males at 50.5%.
5. El Monte, California
The population dropped by approximately 9.3% in El Monte over the past five years. Most recently, the city’s population is 105,307, with a near-equal gender distribution between men and women.
6. San Francisco, California
San Francisco saw a 8.6% reduction in its populace. As of 2022, the city housed 808,437 individuals, with a marginal male majority at 51.3%.
7. Hialeah, Florida
Hialeah had an 8.1% decline in residents. This put the 2022 count at 220,274 with women outnumbering men at 52.9%.
8. Detroit, Michigan
In Detroit, the population decreased 7.8% since 2017. With 620,410 residents in 2022, the gender ratio is skewed toward women at 52.5%.
9. Santa Ana, California
Santa Ana’s population fell approximately 7.8%. The 2022 population of the city is 308,203, with a near-even split of 50.6% men and 49.4% women.
10. Birmingham, Alabama
Birmingham experienced a population decrease of around 7.7% since 2017. With 196,353 residents in 2022, women in the city make up the majority at 53.2%.
Data and Methodology
This study examined the 344 U.S. cities that had a population of 100,000 or higher in 2022, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 1-Year American Community Survey. Cities were ranked by five-year population decline between 2022 and 2017. The population of men and women as a percentage of the whole was also examined. Population data includes people of all ages. Changes in population may be due to births, deaths or migrations.
* This is the first I have heard of SmartAsset, but the information appears to be accurate and unbiased.
Some comments on the story,
1. Where the hell is Paradise, Nevada and why is the population dropping so preciptiously?
2. San Francisco is 6th on the list. Their home values should not have been rising with a declining population base. Something else was in play here.
3, Four of the cities are in California.
4. Hialeah had an 8.1% decline in residents. What the hell is going on there? How does a city in Flordia lose population (unless a lot of people died).
5. If they had used 2017 as their basis for inclusion (with a 100,000 pop cut off), 29 cities would not be on the list.
There is a separate chart at the link with the full list of cities that can be sorted top to bottom.
https://smartasset.com/data-studies/population-decline-2023
Apparently exceptions are also places like Detroit with the $25 crack houses?
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