General polling trends

self | 11/22/2023 | LS

[LS]

Just some observations on general polling:

*In 2020, with perhaps a very rare outlier, President Trump did not lead in a single national poll. Today he leads in almost all. For ex., Emerson, Trump +4, but if RFK, Jr. in the race, +6. In CNN, NBC, NYTimes, Trump is up from 2-4. He leads in the RCP average, which Faux News always manages to bring down with an anti-Trump poll. Right now RCP has Trump +2.2, or outside what many of us think is the "margin of fraud" based on 2020. (Remember, they had FIVE MONTHS of "mules" in 2020. They won't have but one this time; laws have changed; more people are watching). HarrisX has Trump +6, Morning Consult Trump +3

*Statewide, we are seeing amazing numbers. In the "Rust Belt" poll of MI, PA, WI, Trump leads in MI by 5, a tad over 5 when RFK, Jr. is in. Strangely he drops to just over 3 if EVERY outside candidate is in (West, et al). In PA the Rust Belt Poll has it Trump +3; In AZ Trump +8 (supposedly he "lost" by less than 1 in 2020); in GA, Trump +6 (ditto); in WI Trump +2 (ditto); and also VERY IMPORTANT: Polls in WA show Trump down 10 (was 18), NY down 10 (was 26 in 2020), and Kollyfornia Trump down 12 (was 29 in 2020).

In other words, EVERYWHERE anyone is polling, Trump has made significant 5-10 point gains. Moreover, when UNREGISTERED voters are polled, they poll 15 points higher than registered voters, meaning voter reg efforts are VERY important. And it's across the board gains, including blacks (Trump up to 26% in one poll, which I don't buy, but anything close to 20 is a loss for Rutabaga); Hispanics (Trump in the high 40s---Bush had a GOP high of 45% in 2004); and da youts (Trump actually wins this cohort in most polls).

Baris said of the Rust Belt poll, about 2x as many Rutabaga voters have jumped to Trump as vice versa.

Finally, and worth noting, GOP won the Utah special Cong election last night, won the mayorship of Charleston for the first time in 150 years; and so far FIVE DemoKKKrat House members have announced they are resigning (plus Joe Manchin-on-a-Hill). These are canaries in the coal mine. And remember in 2022, despite the anemic House showing, the GOP won the generic ballot by 3. I checked AZ voter reg states and the GOP was up to a 180k lead of DemoKKKrats. In 2020 it was 110,000.

[Trump Girl Kit Cat]

I LOVE Scott Pressler HOWEVER he is a very low key personality, we need a loud boisterous personality out there!! I know a whole lot of people don’t trust Vivek HOWEVER that is the personality we need at the RNC!!

[going hot]

That would fit him well.

[newfreep]

Dominion et al makes ALL polling posts irrelevant

[StAnDeliver]

"Ballots must be mailed by Sept. 2024, meaning they must be printed by August 2024, checked by both parties, and the state, corrected, then printed in final form."

Not a chance in hell a single presidential election ballot is printed before August 22, 2024 -- the last day of the 2024 Democrat Convention in Chiraq.

[StAnDeliver]

"For chuckles and grins, you might want to also keep an eye on the bettors this time. Pres. Biden was rock solid until 08/31/2023...now it's Pres. Trump who is rock solid." good thru 11/20/2023 https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting-odds/2024/president/

I would warn that RCP's aggregate 'betting odds' is in no way reliable or robust and offers nothing authoritative.

Just for starters, polling not only has ground rules, but statistics are inviolate when properly performed, and that includes self-correcting mechanisms.

Betting markets are non-uniform and a mixed of fixed odds versus pari-mutuel, lumping all those together does not create an appetizing "apples and oranges" fruit compote.

Comparing betting markets to correct polling data is like comparing analog to digital -- a stopped stem-wound Rolex Oyster is still only right twice a day.

Here you have every market but one -- PredictIt -- including the Mooch as a wagering entry! This creates garbage that pollutes any possible 'data' that could be gleaned from this nonsense.

Meanwhile, let's take the one bet market that didn't include the girlrilla -- PredictIt. It's not as if RCP actually drilled down to find the actual head-to-head matchup or make any effort to reduce the intangibles...

Furthermore, as indicated by the green arrow, this was actually Trump 40c - Biden 38c just this morning, and volatility in small populations samples is not your trend friend.

If that isn't enough, PredictIt has this odd marketing ploy of adverting their wagers as "shares" and advising bettors to hold onto their "shares" and "trade" them as if on an exchange, whereas other bet markets subverted into RCP's smoldering heap of aggregation are simply either head-to-head props where your smart bet on Trump is matched against a Leftard for Biden, or all the way down to fixed odds determined by some bloke in a surburban London shithole.

[stylin19a]

thanx for that.

I did say “for chuckles & grins”.

FreeRegards.

[Persevero]

Yep.

Homosexual behavior is not benign or harmless. It destroys nations and its legalization makes being a Christian a legal liability. All this men in the women’s jails, kids getting their breast chopped off, people being fired for refusing to call a man a woman etc is all downstream from the minimizing of the depravity of homosexual behavior.

I don’t want homosexuals leading the Republican Party. And those less offensive like you listed are just part of the effort. Camel’s noses under the tent.

[LS]

Nope. Post election data found that non Dominion states/counties Trump did better in some/many. It’s the mules, not the machines.

remember to date NO ONE has been able to make a case that Dominion had any effect in AZ, where we have PAPER BACKUPS. So every single precinct magically would have had to be coordinated with someone dumping the exact number of ballots as the computers were programmed to spit out. Didn’t happen.

[LS]

So ballots are printed Aug. 23.

Again. this is way too late to switch someone out.

And more important, MILLIONS of ad/promotion dollars would have already been spent on Rutabaga by then.

[newfreep]

Dominion machines were not involved in the massive voter fraud?

LOL....what alternate universe are you living?

Wait...are you Liz Cheney?

[LS]

I am saying, listen closely and don’t invent:
1) They weren’t involved in AZ. We have paper backups, and it is impossible to exactly match thousands of precise paper ballots, many in precincts controlled by Rs, to computer readouts. Can’t be done.
2) Many precincts across the country that had Dominion had Trump winning, while many that did not have Dominion had Trump losing.

Take from that what you will, Liz.

[newfreep]

LOL...you’re digging your hole deeper and continuing to ignore reality.

Perhaps too much socialism in your head from all those years at UD.

Sadly, you have a long track record of twisting and ignoring reality...kinda like a RINO.

btw, repeating “Liz” back to me is indicative of a low IQ mocking bird leftist.

[LS]

Please explain how you can have 1m paper ballots from thousands of different precincts, each of which had different total numbers, yet each of those precincts lines up predicisely with the tabulations on the computers.

Then we’ll talk track records.

BTW, my track record in 16 was the very best in the whole country. If YOU are right, then my record in 2020 was just as good and AZ was stolen by machines.

[kiryandil]

I believe that every state has its own rigging mechanism(s).

There are Republican riggers as well as Democrat riggers - the Democrats are just more motivated and diligent.

You need to back off smearing LS, newfreep - he's got an actual track record - and it's good.

[newfreep]

As I stated, LS (and anyone else) denying voter machine fraud is a severe mental disorder of not accepting reality...at best.

Even Dominion has admitted fraud has occurred in their machines.

Anyone denying voter machine fraud is a low IQ leftist/RINO and should justifiably be called out.

[newfreep]

btw, LS does have a track record of RINO propaganda including denying voter fraud on 2020 election night...and I challenged & exposed him that night, too.

[central_va]

Rutabaga voters ???

[kiryandil]

The Tater In Chief, aka The Rutabaga.

[kiryandil]

As I stated, LS (and anyone else) denying voter machine fraud is a severe mental disorder of not accepting reality...at best.

No one will be allowed to prove that voter machine fraud occurred in our lifetimes, or at least until they have enough control to openly laugh in our faces about it.

The entire Machine works to discredit anyone who tries to prove it.

That's why I don't ever commit to a definitive statement about it.

I know that there are things going on - but it's different everywhere.

After their final victory, we'll get articles like the Time magazine piece after the 2020 Steal:

The Secret History of the Shadow Campaign That Saved the 2020 Election
FEBRUARY 4, 2021 5:40 AM EST BY MOLLY BALL

https://time.com/5936036/secret-2020-election-campaign/

[LS]

“Challenged and exposed nothing.”

FIXED