General polling trends

self | 11/22/2023 | LS

[LS]

Just some observations on general polling:

*In 2020, with perhaps a very rare outlier, President Trump did not lead in a single national poll. Today he leads in almost all. For ex., Emerson, Trump +4, but if RFK, Jr. in the race, +6. In CNN, NBC, NYTimes, Trump is up from 2-4. He leads in the RCP average, which Faux News always manages to bring down with an anti-Trump poll. Right now RCP has Trump +2.2, or outside what many of us think is the "margin of fraud" based on 2020. (Remember, they had FIVE MONTHS of "mules" in 2020. They won't have but one this time; laws have changed; more people are watching). HarrisX has Trump +6, Morning Consult Trump +3

*Statewide, we are seeing amazing numbers. In the "Rust Belt" poll of MI, PA, WI, Trump leads in MI by 5, a tad over 5 when RFK, Jr. is in. Strangely he drops to just over 3 if EVERY outside candidate is in (West, et al). In PA the Rust Belt Poll has it Trump +3; In AZ Trump +8 (supposedly he "lost" by less than 1 in 2020); in GA, Trump +6 (ditto); in WI Trump +2 (ditto); and also VERY IMPORTANT: Polls in WA show Trump down 10 (was 18), NY down 10 (was 26 in 2020), and Kollyfornia Trump down 12 (was 29 in 2020).

In other words, EVERYWHERE anyone is polling, Trump has made significant 5-10 point gains. Moreover, when UNREGISTERED voters are polled, they poll 15 points higher than registered voters, meaning voter reg efforts are VERY important. And it's across the board gains, including blacks (Trump up to 26% in one poll, which I don't buy, but anything close to 20 is a loss for Rutabaga); Hispanics (Trump in the high 40s---Bush had a GOP high of 45% in 2004); and da youts (Trump actually wins this cohort in most polls).

Baris said of the Rust Belt poll, about 2x as many Rutabaga voters have jumped to Trump as vice versa.

Finally, and worth noting, GOP won the Utah special Cong election last night, won the mayorship of Charleston for the first time in 150 years; and so far FIVE DemoKKKrat House members have announced they are resigning (plus Joe Manchin-on-a-Hill). These are canaries in the coal mine. And remember in 2022, despite the anemic House showing, the GOP won the generic ballot by 3. I checked AZ voter reg states and the GOP was up to a 180k lead of DemoKKKrats. In 2020 it was 110,000.

[wiseprince]

The truth is anyone who gets to hear from Trump wants Trump (slight hyperbole). The difficulty is that most/many people don’t get to hear from Trump. They get to hear ABOUT Trump. It’s hard to communicate with the People’s Republic of California or the People’s Republic of New York etc. The media plays a major role in what people get to know about Trump. That’s the real challenge.

[kabar]

If we have a fair election in 2024, Trump wins. 2020 was stolen. Forget the polls, what concrete steps are being taken now to stop election fraud?

[stylin19a]

In 2020, the polls were so close it wasn't believable, based on campaign turnout.
The best polls were of likely voters. I notice you don't mention those.
I switched to relying on what the bettors were saying and Pres. Biden was rock solid.

For chuckles and grins, you might want to also keep an eye on the bettors this time.
Pres. Biden was rock solid until 08/31/2023...now it's Pres. Trump who is rock solid.

good thru 11/20/2023

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting-odds/2024/president/

FreeRegards

[wild74]

If Trump is truly leading in these polls nationally, there could be a big impact on local races also, he will not win NY and California but could narrow the loss and bring in some GOP support in the house and senate. Unfortunately I don’t think Biden will be the nominee thus we will have a new poll against the real nominee, we shall see.

[Steven Scharf]

Two comments

Finally, and worth noting, GOP won the Utah special Cong election last night,

Utah Congressional District 2

Heading into the 2022 elections, based on results from the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+11.

It would have been a major story if the Republican had lost.

Measuring Republican success on his race is fool hardy. There have been three congressional special elections this cycle, down from 17 in the last cycle. All three this cycle were in districts with R or D + 10 seats. They are not a measure of the political leanings going into 2024.

Second point. Yes, Donald Trump is leading many polls right now. The political landscape could be totally different 10 months from now. Especially if Biden drops out. Don’t thinks happy days are coming. Yes, we need to be out there keeping those who say they support Trump keep supporting Trump.

[Alas Babylon!]

As Rush Limbaugh would always say, Larry,

“This far out from the election polls don’t matter, and the major issues about the election won’t be known until 2-3 months out at the earliest.”

Does he have a chance? God, I pray so! But we all need to work for it! Free Republic members should be activists for the conservative cause and not just commenters.

[LS]

First, almost impossible at this point for Rutabaga to drop out.

Ballots must be mailed by Sept. 2024, meaning they must be printed by August 2024, checked by both parties, and the state, corrected, then printed in final form.

HOWEVER, the DNC and the Rutabaga campaign have already poured millions of dollars into advertising. By March, they will be locked into massive ad deals, sign/campaign purchases, etc. Really it’s too late to change by then.

Second, no one has yet come up with any reasonable way to remove Harris, whom NO ONE wants. If Rutabaga is removed, she automatically ascends.

Third, Grusome . . . polls WORSE than Rutabaga. He’s DOA

Fourth, having 5 DmoKKKRat reps already resign is a VERY good start, similar to where the Rs were at the same period in 2017.

Fifth, no, polls that are ALL going the same way with the same trends are NOT to be ignored. It’s one thing if they are bouncing around, some here, some there. But they are ALL finding the same thing: Trump gaining dramatically with blacks, Hispanics, and youts. He even is up, in most, with women.

So yes, this is an amazing story developing.

[LS]

Rush would also be the first to note that a) the polls are ALL, not one or two, but all going in the same direction-—180 degrees opposite of 2020; b) that the internals of ALL the polls (as Baris points out) are showing significant shifts toward Trump among blacks, Hispanics, youts and even women.

Also, there is no way Rutabaga can be removed or switched out. Was talking with an AZ GOP person here and they think the notion is absurd based on all the mechanics and processes that need to be in place for a general election. For ballot purposes, the final names have to be on ballots in AUGUST 2024 because that’s when ballots are printed for examination by parties and the states.

[LS]

Actually, most of these polls were of “likely voters.” I mentioned the registration thing because it jumped out so huge to Baris, that the UNregistered are +17 for Trump, meaning we should be engaging in a big voter reg effort.

Fire McRomBush, bring in Scott Pressler.

But that’s why I mentioned AZ registrations. We are now about 30,000 away from not only overcoming the 2020 margin of fraud but also the 2022 margin of McTurdites who voted for Kimberlee Yee, but not Kari Lake.

Thanks for betting links.

[LS]

Fraud was 200,000 votes in 5 states in 2020. We are way, way beyond that.

[LS]

People hear plenty from Trump. He does multiple rallies. At any rate, obviously SOMEONE is hearing from him because the polling shifts are on average 10 points across the board in his direction.

[Steven Scharf]

If you are going to be derogatory in your naming of candidates, I am not going to argue with you.

[Persevero]

I will not accept a homosexual as head of RNC

THERE ARE PLENTY of excellent people to replace Ronna.

[Alas Babylon!]

I suspect you’re right but even Rush would temper his remarks in order to be fair because he was smart enough to know that the future is unknown. You never know what’s going to happen.

Covid is what gave Biden the election by allowing so many states to send out ballots and collect them without any rules. In 2019, who would have thought this would even be possible? That won’t happen again.

But I appreciate your enthusiasm. It goes along way on Free Republic when just about everyone sounds like Eeyore from Winnie the Pooh!

[stylin19a]

thanx for that.

[LS]

I am.

So don’t.

[LS]

You’re absolutely right that in Dec. 2019 no one knew about the China Virus. I kinda think, though, this was a once in a lifetime shot (no pun intended) by the globalists. They failed.

[Trump Girl Kit Cat]

Hey LS I wouldn’t say they failed they got Trump out of the WH which was their goal!! NO ONE will ever convince me that this FEAR PORN was not deliberate!!!

[Trump Girl Kit Cat]

There are also PLENTY of gay people who are EXCELLENT, Rick Grennell comes to mind!! Brandon Straka is another GIVE ME A DAMN BREAK, these are people who NEVER PUSH their sexuality in ANYONE’S face AND are true MAGA! Hell Brandon ended up IN JAIL over J6 damn near destroyed him, HOWEVER he got right back out there FIGHTING for our cause, he has convinced more Dems to walkaway and because he is gay you are ready to just dismiss him!! JEEZE!!