Posted on 09/24/2023 4:46:39 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Previous day’s thread: https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/4184439/posts
Calling someone a RuZZian on FR is considered an insult.
Calling someone a Comrade on FR is considered an insult.
Summarizing this war:
A tragedy for Ukraine.
A disaster for RuZZia.
A strategic win for the USA. The biggest winner of the war.
“More than three decades after Reagan left office, most Republicans still believe that America is a force for good.”
“During the last week, Ukrainian forces have advanced 32km2 in the Robotyne direction. They are expanding their penetration of the Surovikin and have reached the outskirts of Verbove and Verbove.”
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1705891706543972636
“The arrival of the APAM cluster munitions equipped ATACMS Block 1 and 1A will cause the push back of VKS Buk, S-300 and S-400 surface to air missile batteries out of Southern Ukraine and all of Donbas. Destruction of Russian air defense 1/
This Cold War era video will explain the effects of the APAM variants on Russian SAM battery type targets. 2/
This will require a software upgrade to existing wheeled HIMARS and the tracked M270 launchers in Ukrainian service. 3/
While I agree Russo-Ukrainian War is a war of material attrition. I disagree with the thought below that “100 ATACMS would not make a difference” in that it misses Russian SAM batteries are not made at anything approaching 100 batteries a year. 4/
High end SAM batteries like Patriot, SAMP/T, S-300V4 or S-300 are made in quantities of less than a dozen batteries a year. An ATACMS Block 1 (M39) missile delivers 950 munitions in a 1 km by 1 km area. 5/
100 of the Block 1 ATACMS dropped in the right places in Southern Ukraine & Donbas will remove Russian high altitude SAM coverage from Kherson to the 1991 Russian border plus Northern Crimea. 6/
The lack of Russian high altitude SAM coverage that the presumed Biden Administration delivery of ATACMS will cause unlocks the high altitude range of the JDAM-ER for the Ukrainian PSU (Air Force). I’ve done a few posts & threads on the JDAM-ER. https://ausairpower.net/TE-JDAMPt1.html 7/
JDAM-ER - 1 8/
JDAM-ER - 2 9/
JDAM-ER - 3 10/
JDAM-ER - 4 11/
The Russians build fewer high altitude SAM batteries in a year than the US Navy builds warships. 100 Block 1 ATACMS will cause the unlocking of high altitude air space for PSU JDAM-ER delivery on Russian logistics at ranges rivaling the GMLRS with greater lethal effects 12/
...all across the Ukrainian south at a fraction of the price of a GMLRS. There are more JDAM bombs in USAF/USN/USMC inventories than there are GMLRS rockets in the US Army. ATACMS allowing PSU mass high altitude JDAM-ER use is literally more bang for the buck. 13/
Decisive defenestration of Russian high altitude SAMs in Ukraine by ATACMS follow by increased and deeper firepower by the PSU using cheap & numerous US precision glide bombs is the definition of winning in a high tech war of material attrition. 14/
The MK-84 JDAM-ER is a more cost effective tool for troop barracks and weapons / POL storage versus GMLRS since one round obliterates the DMPI (desired main point of impact. One virtue of GBU-38 JDAM-ER is that you can toss 4 to 8 in one delivery and program each to hit 15/
.their own DMPI individually. In the old days, you would fly along the length of a trench system and train release dumb MK-82s. Currently with JDAM-ER, PSU can get the same effect from 40 km away by programming each JDAM-ER to land maybe 50-100 metres apart along... 16/
...the trench system. The extermination of Russian high altitude SAM coverage in Southern Ukraine by Block 1 ATACMS means the PSU will be able to do the same thing at 92 km. 17/
It is due to this incredible utility at killing Russian air defenses in Southern Ukraine that makes me think it will be months before the Biden Adm. will deliver ATACMS like with GLSDB, F-16’s & M-1 Abrams tanks. I’d really like to be wrong about more SLOW WALKING. 18/18 End.”
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1705716155522891785
software upgrade required?
“Ukrainian HIMARS Can’t Fire Long Range ATACMS Missiles: Report”
“HIMARS launchers sent to Ukraine are reportedly modified so they can’t use ATACMS missiles over fears about potential escalation with Russia.”
“The M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, that the U.S. military has transferred to Ukraine have been modified to prevent them from firing any variant of the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) short-range ballistic missile, according to a new report today.
ATACMS missiles have been high on the Ukrainian military’s wishlist for some time as they would greatly extend the range the country could hold Russian targets at risk. It can also destroy larger, more heavily fortified targets across its up to nearly 200-mile range. However, American officials have so far denied those requests for fear the missiles could be used to strike targets deeper inside Russia proper, which they worry could lead the Kremlin to seek to further escalate the situation in Ukraine or to retaliate more directly against the United States and its NATO allies.
The Wall Street Journal first reported on the modifications made to the 6x6 wheeled HIMARS launchers that have been delivered to Ukraine. As of November 23, the U.S. military had transferred, or was planning to transfer, a total of 38 HIMARS to the Ukrainian armed forces, according to the Pentagon. So far, these launchers, which have had a major impact on the battlefield already, fire M30A1 and M31A1 227mm precision-guided rockets, which have advanced fragmentation and unity high-explosive warheads respectively. Both types have a stated maximum range of at least approximately 43.5 miles (70 kilometers).
The full scope of the modifications made to U.S.-supplied HIMARS before their arrival in Ukraine is unclear. One possibility is that the launchers might simply have a dumbed-down version of the standard system’s software that does not have the functionality necessary to launch ATACMS. Minor physical changes could be made to prevent the missiles from working properly if loaded or prevent them from being loaded in the first place, too. However, ATACMS missiles come pre-loaded into launch canisters (often referred to as ‘pods’) that are intended to at least be dimensionally identical (and also outwardly appear the same) as those loaded with 227mm rockets, which could make physical alternations more complicated.
Without knowing for sure what has changed, it’s also not clear how readily reversible the modifications might be should U.S. policies surrounding the transfer of ATACMSs to Ukraine change in the future.“
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukrainian-himars-cant-fire-long-range-atacms-missiles-report
“A lot of pro-Ukraine people seem kinda disappointed that instead of the single warhead and 300km range ATACMS missiles that were going to destroy the Kerch Bridge, Ukraine will likely be provided the cluster warhead variant, reportedly with a reduced range of 140km.
This is what it looks on the map (by @AndrewPerpetua) .
The smaller circles represent the current range the Ukrainian HIMARS are capable of striking Russian targets on the southern front (around 80km).
The 140km range does seem to be enough to cover the entire supply routes on the southern front, the ones coming from the east (Mariupol-Volnovakha segment) as well as the one coming from Crimea.
On top of that, if these missiles are anything as accurate and as effective at penetrating the Russian air defense as HIMARS currently is, it means that the Russian airfields in the south are in big trouble.
Think of all the Ka-52 and all aircraft operating from there, they will be in big trouble if Ukrainians are just as capable of striking deep as they are doing right now with counter-battery fire in Tokmak front.
Also it is likely that the Russian long-range air defense will fall further back.
So far the S-300/S-400 systems have been mostly deployed just a little further away from the 80km range Ukrainian HIMARS have.
Now as you can see on the map the usage of ATACMS could potentially create a weak spot on the Russian air defense just north of Crimea. This will surely make it easier for Storm Shadows, SCALP-EG and Taurus missiles (which are very likely coming as well) to continue to strike military facilities in Crimea and possibly even allow such missiles to strike & destroy the “dream target” itself...the Crimean Bridge.
Of course, success is not guaranteed, even K. Budanov himself stated that it will take at least several hundreds of such missiles to have a significant impact in this war, but this post is just to show that these missiles can do much more than some people think, especially in combination with other western missiles and the F-16s which are expected to arrive next year, we will certainly see way more strikes against Russian targets in Crimea.
Even with the current limited resources the Ukrainians still have managed to cause a lot of damage so they will surely do a lot better once they get these new big toys.”
https://twitter.com/MilitaryLabb/status/1705593611746721823
” U.S. Army Hospital in Germany Is Treating Americans Hurt Fighting in Ukraine”
“The Army’s Landstuhl Regional Medical Center has quietly started admitting Ukrainian Army soldiers who were wounded in combat, most of them American volunteers.”
“A group of Ukrainian Army soldiers pierced by Russian grenades and mortar shells arrived at a hospital recently in need of surgery. It would have been a familiar scene from the bloody war grinding on in Ukraine, except for two crucial differences: Most of the wounded soldiers were American, and so was the hospital — the U.S. Army’s flagship medical center in Germany.
The Army has quietly started to treat wounded Americans and other fighters evacuated from Ukraine at its Landstuhl Regional Medical Center. Though the number so far is small — currently 14 — it marks a notable new step in the United States’ deepening involvement in the conflict.”
“From playgrounds to parade grounds: Russian schools are becoming increasingly militarized”
https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/24/europe/russia-schools-pro-war-parade-grounds-intl/index.html
“Transport plane full of coffins heading to Russia.”
https://twitter.com/KilledInUkraine/status/1705669234217365663
“Defeat of a Russian tank column of 8 tanks near Novoyehorivka in the Svatove direction.
ATGM and FPV drone crews demolished half of the column, the surviving tanks retreated.”
https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1705810660045525171
“A Russian 2S9 Nona-S 120mm self-propelled mortar was destroyed by a FPV loitering munition of the Ukrainian 72nd Mechanized Brigade in #Donetsk Oblast. Again, we can see a powerful ammo detonation, common with this type of vehicle.”
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1705852827233300773
I see you.
“September ‘23, south of Vuhledar.”
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1705891487051870481
“Donetsk Oblast, Ukrainian forces from the 93rd Mechanized Brigade hit a Russian BMP-1 with a heavyweight FPV loitering munition, setting it alight and eventually causing a catastrophic ammunition cookoff.”
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1705767190304026729
“Civilians protest ruSSian occupation near Sevastopol this morning by destroying air defence system with molotov coctails!”
https://twitter.com/st_batory/status/1705818464378581062
“A 🇺🇦 drone struck the FSB in Kursk 🇷🇺 today.”
https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1705898737925550097
https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1705870195212886523
OK
“ISW is now prepared to assess that Ukrainian forces have broken through Russian field fortifications west of Verbove in western Zaporizhia Oblast. These fortifications are not the final defensive line in Russia’s defense in depth in western Zaporizhia Oblast, but rather a specific series of the best-prepared field fortifications arrayed as part of a near-contiguous belt of an anti-vehicle ditch, dragon’s teeth, and fighting positions about 1.7 - 3.5 km west of Verbove.[1]
Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Commander Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi stated in an interview with CNN published on September 23 that Ukrainian forces achieved a “breakthrough” on the left flank near Verbove and that Ukrainian forces continue advancing.[2] Combat footage posted on September 22 shows a destroyed Ukrainian Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) and BMP-2 operating slightly beyond Russia’s fighting positions trench line near Verbove, indicating continued Ukrainian progress in deploying more heavy equipment beyond Russia’s triune belt of the anti-vehicle ditch, dragon’s teeth, and fighting positions.[3] Commercially available satellite imagery indicates that Ukrainian forces have brought heavy equipment closer to Verbove over the past 96 hours in a manner consistent with Tarnavskyi’s statement.[4] The Wall Street Journal reported on September 21 that Ukrainian forces achieved a “limited breakthrough” west of Verbove citing an unnamed Ukrainian Air Assault Forces officer.[5]
Ukrainian forces have not overcome all of the prepared Russian defensive positions near Verbove. Ukrainian forces’ rate of advance near their breakthrough remains unclear. Russian forces likely still control segments of the long trench line of Russian fighting positions between Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) and Verbove, especially near the tactical high ground to the south. Russian forces have reportedly established prepared fighting positions in almost every tree line that Ukrainian infantry are slowly and systematically fighting through. Russian forces have more field fortifications beyond Verbove; there are more anti-vehicle trenches and fighting positions north of Ocheretuvate (26km southeast of Orikhiv), for example. It is unclear the extent to which those positions are manned, however. ISW continues to assess that the Russian military does not have sufficient forces deployed to this sector of the front to completely man its defenses in depth and that Ukrainian forces should be able to operate through Russian field fortifications more rapidly if they are not properly manned.[6]
Ukrainian forces are deepening their penetration in Zaporizhia Oblast and are assaulting Novoprokopivka – a frontline village 1.5 km immediately south of Robotyne. Geolocated combat footage posted on September 23 shows elements of the Russian 70th Regiment (42nd Motorized Rifle Division, 58th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District) ambushing and killing two Ukrainian infantrymen in Novoprokopivka’s northeastern outskirts, indicating that Ukrainian forces have likely cleared Russian positions between Robotyne and Novoprokopivka.[7] Multiple Russian sources reported that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attack against northern Novoprokopivka on September 22.[8] This is the first confirmed Ukrainian ground attack in the immediate vicinity of Novoprokopivka.”
USAF spy plane flights over the Black Sea today indicate Kerch is up next after Sevastopol.
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