“During the last week, Ukrainian forces have advanced 32km2 in the Robotyne direction. They are expanding their penetration of the Surovikin and have reached the outskirts of Verbove and Verbove.”
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1705891706543972636
“The arrival of the APAM cluster munitions equipped ATACMS Block 1 and 1A will cause the push back of VKS Buk, S-300 and S-400 surface to air missile batteries out of Southern Ukraine and all of Donbas. Destruction of Russian air defense 1/
This Cold War era video will explain the effects of the APAM variants on Russian SAM battery type targets. 2/
This will require a software upgrade to existing wheeled HIMARS and the tracked M270 launchers in Ukrainian service. 3/
While I agree Russo-Ukrainian War is a war of material attrition. I disagree with the thought below that “100 ATACMS would not make a difference” in that it misses Russian SAM batteries are not made at anything approaching 100 batteries a year. 4/
High end SAM batteries like Patriot, SAMP/T, S-300V4 or S-300 are made in quantities of less than a dozen batteries a year. An ATACMS Block 1 (M39) missile delivers 950 munitions in a 1 km by 1 km area. 5/
100 of the Block 1 ATACMS dropped in the right places in Southern Ukraine & Donbas will remove Russian high altitude SAM coverage from Kherson to the 1991 Russian border plus Northern Crimea. 6/
The lack of Russian high altitude SAM coverage that the presumed Biden Administration delivery of ATACMS will cause unlocks the high altitude range of the JDAM-ER for the Ukrainian PSU (Air Force). I’ve done a few posts & threads on the JDAM-ER. https://ausairpower.net/TE-JDAMPt1.html 7/
JDAM-ER - 1 8/
JDAM-ER - 2 9/
JDAM-ER - 3 10/
JDAM-ER - 4 11/
The Russians build fewer high altitude SAM batteries in a year than the US Navy builds warships. 100 Block 1 ATACMS will cause the unlocking of high altitude air space for PSU JDAM-ER delivery on Russian logistics at ranges rivaling the GMLRS with greater lethal effects 12/
...all across the Ukrainian south at a fraction of the price of a GMLRS. There are more JDAM bombs in USAF/USN/USMC inventories than there are GMLRS rockets in the US Army. ATACMS allowing PSU mass high altitude JDAM-ER use is literally more bang for the buck. 13/
Decisive defenestration of Russian high altitude SAMs in Ukraine by ATACMS follow by increased and deeper firepower by the PSU using cheap & numerous US precision glide bombs is the definition of winning in a high tech war of material attrition. 14/
The MK-84 JDAM-ER is a more cost effective tool for troop barracks and weapons / POL storage versus GMLRS since one round obliterates the DMPI (desired main point of impact. One virtue of GBU-38 JDAM-ER is that you can toss 4 to 8 in one delivery and program each to hit 15/
.their own DMPI individually. In the old days, you would fly along the length of a trench system and train release dumb MK-82s. Currently with JDAM-ER, PSU can get the same effect from 40 km away by programming each JDAM-ER to land maybe 50-100 metres apart along... 16/
...the trench system. The extermination of Russian high altitude SAM coverage in Southern Ukraine by Block 1 ATACMS means the PSU will be able to do the same thing at 92 km. 17/
It is due to this incredible utility at killing Russian air defenses in Southern Ukraine that makes me think it will be months before the Biden Adm. will deliver ATACMS like with GLSDB, F-16’s & M-1 Abrams tanks. I’d really like to be wrong about more SLOW WALKING. 18/18 End.”
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1705716155522891785