Previous day’s thread: https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4178113/posts
Calling someone a RuZZian on FR is considered an insult.
Calling someone a Comrade on FR is considered an insult.
Summarizing this war:
A tragedy for Ukraine.
A disaster for RuZZia.
A strategic win for the USA. The biggest winner of the war.
“More than three decades after Reagan left office, most Republicans still believe that America is a force for good.”
Section 1 of 7 - Ukraine: Military Situation Update - Aug 28, 2023.
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
[ Genius. Ukrainians Use Thermal Tech to Break Through Minefields ]
••Day 550: Aug 27
Today, there are a lot of updates from the Tokmak direction.
Here, after Ukrainians established total control over Robotnye, they immediately started pushing further.
The main target of Ukrainians became the next village on the line - Novoprokopivka.
However, the fastest way to the settlement was not the shortest.
Russian forces created several fortifications between Robotnye and Novoprokopivka, and even though the trench networks were not nearly as extensive as those already passed, they still hindered the progress and did not allow Ukrainians to move faster.
Ukrainian fighters reported that they were destroying Russian personnel with regular and cluster shells in large numbers.
A fighter from the 24th Assault Brigade reported that Russian daily reinforcements reached 60 trucks of troops, so Russian losses on this small section of the front line are mind-boggling.
And such a desperate attempt to slow Ukrainians down is not surprising - if Ukrainians take Novoprokopivka, they will reach the second line of defense.
That is why Russians are holding onto these several trench networks and regularly bomb Robotnye to prevent Ukrainians from accumulating forces enough to conduct a powerful attack.
Geolocated footage confirms that bombing happens on a regular basis and some state that Russians conduct up to 8 such attacks per day.
Unfortunately for Russians, Ukrainians attacked from a different direction.
Due to the constant shelling of the southern part of Robotnye and continuous counterattacks from the Russian side, the Ukrainian command saw that advances in this region would come at an unnecessarily high price.
Ukrainians continued imitating attacks near Robotnye to play along with Russian expectations, while in the meantime, Ukrainians gradually accumulated forces in the tree lines east of Robotnye.
As Ukrainians liberated a lot of fields, Russians did not notice the accumulation of a critical number of troops until it was too late.
Ukrainians started pushing south parallel to the Robotnye-Novoprokopivka line and gained ground relatively quickly.
Soon, Russian sources published footage showing how Russian artillery was shelling Ukrainians more than 2 km south of the previous positions.
The reason why Ukrainians managed to advance here so rapidly is simple.
If we look at the topographic map, we can see that Ukrainians moved into the lowlands.
Even though Ukrainians were at a tactical disadvantage, Russian forces did not create enough strong points to repel Ukrainian attacks confidently.
Russians counted a lot of the mine fields, however, Ukrainians developed a great tactic to tackle this problem much more easily.
As it is very hot during the day, metal absorbs this heat visibly greater than the ground. So, Ukrainians would launch drones with thermal cameras during the day to create a map of mines.
This approach allowed to identify trails with virtually no mines or the point at which the mine field is very narrow.
Next, Ukrainians would send de-mining equipment to create a safe pathway, get across the minefield, and assault Russian positions.
Ukrainians here also experienced more freedom of operation, as the Russian artillery was too focused on shelling the southern part of Robotnye.
After repeating the processes for several more days, Ukrainians approached Novoprokopivka from the east and conducted the first assault on the village.
Two days ago, Russian sources reported that the Russians 56th and 108th regiments lost key positions in the eastern part of the village, which is why Novoprokopivka could already be considered lost.
Despite the raised alarm by some Russian media sources, it is too early to consider Novoprokopivka as fallen.
Nonetheless, over the last several days, the area of operation of Ukrainian forces shifted south by up to 4 km.
As you probably already noticed, Ukrainians are using exactly the same tactic as in the case of Robotnye: they advanced in the lowlands, where Russians did not make any fortifications, established control over the small forests and dense tree line, used them to establish fire control over the settlements, and then entered these settlements.
If Ukrainians gain a stable bridgehead inside the village and push Russians out of the western side, Russian forces will automatically lose control over all trenches and fortifications north of Novoprokopivka, and, what is even more important, Ukrainians will reach the second line of defense on a 12-km section simultaneously.
This is very bad news for Russians because as Ukrainians can attack any section, Russians need to stretch their forces evenly and, inevitably, thinly and keep as many troops as possible everywhere at all times.
Ukrainians, in turn, just need to find or create a weak link and penetrate the line.
Once passed, Ukrainians can clear the line by attacking it from 3 sides.
[ Ukraine Has Success in The South | Russia Sends Its Elite Reserve Regiment ]
==
Section 3A:
Robotnye direction:
UA approaches 2nd defense line.
==
Section 3B:
76th Guards (Chernogov Red Banner) Air Assault Division (VDV) is part of Russia’s Strategic reserve which goes from one hot spot to another, fast reaction troops.
76th Guards Air Assault Division consists of a division headquarters, three air assault regiments, one tank battalion, an artillery regiment, an anti-aircraft missile regiment, a reconnaissance battalion, and several directly subordinated combat support and combat service support battalions and companies.
As of 2021, the 76th Air Assault Division consisted of the following units
Division Headquarters (Pskov, Western Military District)
175th Reconnaissance Battalion
124th Tank Battalion (T-72B3)
7th Maintenance Battalion
656th Engineering Battalion
728th Communications Battalion
1682nd Material Support Battalion
3996th Military Hospital (Airmobile)
201st Postal Station
Airborne Support Company
NBC Defense Company
Commandant’s Company
104th Guards Air Assault Regiment <— North of Kremmina
234th Guards Air Assault Regiment <— Massacre at Bucha <— South of Kremmina
237th Guards Air Assault Regiment <— South of Kremmina
1140th Guards Artillery Regiment
4th Guards Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment
April 2022 - Guards Colonel Denis Shishov, Commander, Hero of Russia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/76th_Guards_Air_Assault_Division
These troops are not used as paratroopers dropping in behind enemy lines, but as regular soldiers manning the trenches.
==
Section 3C:
Russian Mil-bloggers are saying that Russian defenses are beginning to break apart. Once the Surovikin main line is penetrated, the lightly defended 2nd line may collapse and the way is open to Tokmak. But not soon.
==
Section 3D:
Attack on the Kursk airfield yesterday by UA cardboard drones damaged 4 SU-30s and a MiG-29, S-300 systems had a damaged radar and 2 launchers. These drones are almost invisible to radar. Number of damaged planes in not yet confirmed.
==
Section 3E:
Milley: Ukraine will get F-16s and still has reserves to be successful.
==
Section 3F:
UA will continue multi-vector tactics, and the NYT reported that General Commander Surski wants to reinforce the Kupyansk region, which he thinks is the probable spot for a Russian attack this fall.
==
Section 3G:
Ukrainian officials said that they created a new long range missile. No details, but it is likely the S-200 missile modified for ground attack.
==
Section 3H:
Tourist season in Crimea collapsed with only a 50% showing, and most of those were government officials, forcing Russia to spend more money from their budget to support Crimea.
==
Section 4A:
“We are ready to fight for a long time, if we do not lose many of people. Minimizing casualties. Like, for example, Israel” - Zelensky
Highlights from Zelensky’s interview:
1) The war should not go to the territory of Russia. “It’s a big risk that we’ll be left alone.”
2) The President wants to equate corruption with treason (!) during martial law.
3) “If we are on the administrative border with Crimea, I believe that it is possible to politically press the demilitarization of Russia on the territory of the peninsula.”
4) Zelensky allowed elections during the war, but for this, the US and the EU (calling for elections) must finance the electoral process, as well as send their observers to the trenches at the front.
5) “We have no right to fundamentally change the Constitution. Society has one tool - a referendum.”
6) “We must be honest, we must pay taxes, and not cover up any of our steps with the help of the army.”
7) “In the direction of military-tech, we will be number 1, at least on the European continent.”
8) “Many debts during this war, I’m sure, will be restructured, but there will be no gifts.”
9) “We produce different missiles and started building NATO-style artillery. Now we have this systemic production.”
==
Section 4B:
Plus one more T-73B3 for Ukrainian army. Ruzzian lend-lease. Video.
https://t.me/pilotblog/6338
==
Section 4C:
Some of the fighting videos from our guys
https://t.me/pilotblog/6336?single
==
Section 4D:
Interesting nights in the Crimea: “saboteurs” near Evpatoria liquidated 14 Ruzzian soldiers.
One part of the Russian military was killed with stab wounds in the heart, while others had their throats cut, according to Russian media. That is sick. Not confirmed - info from Russian channels.
https://t.me/pilotblog/6331
==
Section 4E:
The Investigative Committee announced that a molecular genetic examination of the bodies of those killed in a plane crash in the Tver region had been carried out.
The findings match the identities of those on board at the time of the crash, including Dmitry Utkin and Yevgeny Prigozhin.
https://t.me/pilotblog/6332
==
Section 4F:
FPRI analyst (Institute for the Study of Foreign Policy, USA) Rob Lee reports on the transfer of several regiments of the 76th Guards Airborne Assault Division of the Russian Airborne Forces to the Rabotino area from near Kremennaya.
76th Guards. The DShD of the Airborne Forces is one of the best and relatively fresh Russian divisions.
As Rob Lee writes, this means that Russian troops in the south are under heavy pressure. Other units of the Russian Airborne Forces fought south of Bakhmut this summer.
The Ukrainian reserve officer Tatarigami_UA, author and translator of tactical manuals (notorious for his very reserved assessments, for which he is often criticized by the inhabitants of Twitter) makes an additional comment:
1) According to Russian military doctrine, at least on paper, the 76th division is part of their strategic reserves, which underlines the gravity of this move.
2) This has a double connotation. On the one hand, this enhances Russian operational capabilities.
On the other hand, the failure of the elements of the 76th division (if it occurs) will critically weaken the Russian reserves, ready for rapid deployment.
https://t.me/pilotblog/6334
==
Section 5A:
More than 50 soldiers surrendered to the Ukrainians in the Robotnye area. The commander beat them and there was nothing to eat
We were contacted by a military man whose colleagues surrendered to the Ukrainian army a few days ago in the Robotnye district of the Zaporizhzhia region.
We confirmed this information from three sources - in the General Staff and among the soldiers who are at the front.
The military man said the following: “We had serious losses a week ago, many boys died. At the same time, they stopped delivering food, we were looking for it on our own, but there were often moments when there was simply nothing to eat (the source confirmed the information about problems with food at the front, we wrote about it - ed.)”.
The fighters asked the commander to let them retreat in order to gain strength.
The officer reacted to this “inadequately and with anger.” He attacked the military, who asked to be allowed to leave, and beat several people.
As a result, 52 people decided to surrender to the enemy. Before that, they attacked the commander, “twisted him” and surrendered to the Ukrainians along with the officer.
Seven people, including our interlocutor, did not surrender.
After that, the state of emergency took them away from Robotnye towards Tokmak.
Our source in the General Staff confirmed the information about the surrender of just such a number of soldiers - 53 people, along with the commander.
Regarding food problems, he said that “there are heavy battles, so there are difficulties with logistics.”
As for the situation in Robotnye, a representative of the General Staff said that “most of the village has been lost, but the fighting continues.”
==
Section 5B:
General Teplinskiy wounded at the front
As a military man close to Mikhail Teplinsky told us, the general was wounded in the Zaporizhzhia direction, where he had recently been sent.
“The car in which Mikhail Yuryevich was driving was fired upon.
An ambush was organized, they fired from a grenade launcher and automatic weapons.
Who organized the ambush, Ukrainian saboteurs (everything happened not at the very front line) or our internal ill-wishers, we will figure it out,” the source promised.
According to him, Teplinsky “scratched his hand, the wound is not serious and did not even require significant medical intervention.”
At the same time, the driver of the car in which the general was traveling died.
At the end of July, Teplinskiy nearly died in the NVO zone - not far from Artemovsk (Bakhmut).
Then the military close to the general said that enemy artillery was directed at him by internal enemies.
Surrounded by Mikhail Yuryevich, they asked to investigate the incident, but the Ministry of Defense blocked this process.
==
Section 5C:
Because of the ruble exchange rate and prices: Vladimir Putin tends to resign Elvira Nabiullina
According to two of our sources close to the president, Putin spoke to several people last week who advised him to fire the head of the central bank.
“Vladimir Vladimirovich, in particular, spoke with Academician Sergei Glazyev.
He told him that Nabiullina could not cope with the exchange rate of the dollar and the euro, that prices would soon rise so that the president’s popularity would begin to fall, that drastic steps were needed.
Vladimir Vladimirovich seriously thought about it,” one of the interlocutors told us.
At the same time, Putin, as planned , will make a decision on Nabiullina in the fall.
“If the ruble strengthens at least to 75-80 per dollar, this could save the head of the Central Bank. If not, I don’t even know,” said the second source.
Our interlocutor at the Central Bank believes that Nabiullina is one of those on whom the Russian economy is based. And that her resignation would be a “deadly mistake.”
==
Section 5D:
... According to two of our sources in the Kremlin, the idea of banning songs about “Wagnerites” is being seriously discussed in power circles.
“Serious people, some of them close to Vladimir Vladimirovich, suggested that a number of songs about Wagner and Prigozhin be declared extremist.
So that nothing heroic is associated with them, and that they go down in history as traitors who staged a rebellion and paid for it.
And not as heroes who achieved something there in the NWO,” said one of the interlocutors.
According to him, “discussions are going on, and very serious ones.”
If the decision is made, the songs “Summer and Crossbows” by Akim Apachev, “Wagner” by Vika Tsyganova, “ Song about Prigozhin” by Sergei Shnurov and a number of others may be banned in our country.
The list is still being compiled ...
==
Section 6A:
Russian President Vladimir Putin held an operational meeting with permanent members of the Security Council of the Russian Federation via videoconference.
Recently, Putin rarely personally takes part in official events, but this time it was necessary to demonstrate that he was alive and capable.
Despite the fact that there is practically no information about this meeting in the official Kremlin resources, and the video and photos are so small that you can’t really see anything on them, nevertheless, the president was being prepared for this event for more than three hours.
Washing, combing, putting on make-up, dressing and putting on shoes for Putin takes more and more time.
The President feels unwell, and the medicines help little and it is necessary to give him a short rest during all the preparatory procedures.
As a result, more than three hours of effort and “Cucumber” (as the servant has recently mockingly called the head of state) is more or less ready to hold a meeting.
This time, both the main part of the meeting and the traditional communication in the closed part in a narrow format were short-lived.
The President, despite all his efforts, looked tired and tried not to delay his speeches, reports and discussions.
During the closed part of the conversation, Putin was silent almost all the time and did not participate in the discussion of the issues raised, closing the meeting, practically cutting off the discussion of one of the stated topics.
Over the weekend, the president held a meeting with representatives of the leadership of the military bloc and had several consultations with representatives of the leadership of the power bloc via video link.
During communication with the military, Putin was briefed on the situation at the front, they say, the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has bogged down and there is nothing to worry about.
The President, after listening to the report, asked only one, apparently, a rhetorical question: “Why the hell are you —— my brains?” And without receiving any intelligible answer, he closed the meeting.
Representatives of the leadership of the power bloc held consultations with the President on the topic of “the funeral of the leadership of PMC Wagner.”
But on Sunday evening, Putin did not give the go-ahead to the implementation of any of the proposed options, leaving the decision to the Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Nikolai Patrushev.
The President joked gloomily, saying that it was time to think about where he himself would soon be buried.
And despite the active denial and words about many years on the part of the interlocutors, Putin’s attending physicians say that the end is close.
==
Section 7A:
Professor Phillips O’Brien in X (ex-Twitter): Now that the Kremlin has confirmed Prigozhin’s death, it can be categorically argued that the Ukrainians’ decision to fight for Bakhmut was the right one.
The losses suffered by Wagner led to a growing rift between Prigozhin and the Russian military.
The longer the campaign went on, the more angry he became, and this led directly to the attempted mutiny.
No Bakhmut - no rebellion. The mutiny not only crippled Wagner, it weakened Putin.
Under Bakhmut “Wagner” fought relatively successfully.
If the Ukrainians had left Bakhmut, this would have saved a large number of PMC forces, would have allowed them to recruit more, and all of them would now be at war with the Ukrainians. Russia would have real reserves.
If Ukraine had withdrawn troops from Bakhmut, this would not have accelerated the counteroffensive, since the Ukrainians clearly needed all the time they could to prepare. For that matter, it started earlier, in early June.
This means that Russia would have more resources both for recreation and for preparing for defense.
Thus, fighting for Bakhmut, the Ukrainians defeated the Wagner, contributed to a bitter rupture between Prigozhin and Putin, deprived Russia of large reserve forces and additional resources in order to dig in.
It was a difficult choice, but worth it.
It should also be added that, by crippling Wagner and facilitating the rebellion, the fight for Bakhmut turned out to be the fact that Putin strengthened the positions of Shoigu and Gerasimov and got rid of Surovikin, who seems much more competent.
I saw some comments that the Ukrainians could not have known that this would happen - of course not.
They cannot know the future. They decided to do this in order to inflict maximum losses on the Russians.
It was these losses (intentional) that caused the Wagnerian crisis.
I see some comments that the Ukrainians should have retreated from the city and dug in in the countryside, and the Wagner would have continued the offensive.
There is no evidence for this. The Russians wanted to take Bakhmut for politics. The rest of the time they built defensive lines.
Russia is building 135 T90 tanks a month and retrofitting WWII armor into mobile infantry support artillery. Looks like they have built more new than the ildə they’ve lost.
Creative Accounting 101 USG using military aid dollars to build next generation military equipment for our military and writing down the old equipment at top dollar line item disposal. We go a little old war to rearm America for less than it appears.
Tactical defense is what Russia has been doing over the last months. It has ground down the attacking Ukrainian forces by all means available to it. When they are done with it the Russian forces will launch their strategic offensive campaign. They are then likely to rapidly progress through thinned out Ukrainian lines.