Previous day’s thread: https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4172062/posts
Calling someone a RuZZian on FR is considered an insult.
Calling someone a Comrade on FR is considered an insult.
Summarizing this war:
A tragedy for Ukraine.
A disaster for RuZZia.
A strategic win for the USA. The biggest winner of the war.
“More than three decades after Reagan left office, most Republicans still believe that America is a force for good.”
All gazzlight, all the time.
Ukraine: military situation update - Aug 1, 2023
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
==
——> Cargo Ship Enters Danube Despite Russia’s Black Sea Shipping Threat <——
At least a half dozen ships have ignored Russian warnings and appear to be headed to a Ukrainian port on the Danube River.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/cargo-ship-enters-danube-despite-russias-black-sea-shipping-threat
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
[ Legendary HIMARS Strike | Ukrainians Wipe Out a Russian Island Base ]
••Day 524: Aug 01
Today there is a lot of news from the south.
First of all, today, Ukrainian forces conducted a devastating HIMARS strike on 5 Russian camps on the Dzharylhach island, which is in front of Skadovsk.
Apparently, the recent drone strike on Crimea revealed a weakness in Russian air space, and Ukrainians found out that they could operate in the sky in the deep rear quite freely.
A Ukrainian reconnaissance drone operator flew by the southern shore of the Kherson region and identified a relatively big Russian base on the Dzharylhach island.
The operator found out that Russian forces felt quite comfortable and relaxed.
And this is not surprising as the base is located more than 85 km from the contact line on the opposite side of the Kherson region.
Even though they dug the trenched along the shore, nobody really expected a large-scale amphibious operation in this region.
That is why Russian soldiers felt safe and accumulated a lot of trucks and equipment in plain sight.
But this is not the biggest mistake Russians made.
Since the base is far from the front line, Russian commanders took a chance to exercise their authority at the expense of operational security by assembling everyone outside every morning.
Ukrainian drone operator witnessed precisely that and marked the precise areas that all 5 Russian detachments used every morning to assemble in lines.
This was a fatal mistake as today in the morning, Ukrainians waited until all Russian detachments assembled outside and eliminated all 5 detachments virtually simultaneously.
Next, it seems like Ukrainians decided to take out equipment as well.
The total Russian losses are estimated to be up to 200 soldiers.
Russian sources circulated the footage and blamed the Russian commanders for keeping their pre-war and bureaucratic mentality.
Russian analysts viciously critiqued the responsible people who got everyone killed, including themselves.
Speaking about bad practices, Russian forces continue losing a lot of troops and equipment by continuing to use big columns near the front line.
2 weeks ago, Ukrainians spotted a Russian column near Ocheretuvate, which is only 15 km away from the hottest part of the front line.
Ukrainians swiftly conducted a strike and destroyed the whole column.
Russian sources published footage showing the aftermath of the strike and confirming that there was nothing left.
Interestingly, 2 weeks prior to that strike, Ukrainians destroyed another Russian column on the same front.
Geolocated footage shows that Russians lost 7 trucks loaded with ammunition and possibly personnel.
So, every 2 weeks, Russians lose their forces in bulk because of the refusal of Russian commanders to adjust to the realities of war.
Some said that if 17 months of war and dozens of such cases did not teach them anything, then they are unlikely to adjust their practices in the future.
Today, Russian sources also reported that Ukrainians conducted another marine drone strike on the Russian warships.
This time the target of the strike became 2 Russian patrol ships that are blocking access to the Ukrainian harbors and preventing the export of grain.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that Ukrainians attacked the ships with 3 drones and that Russians successfully destroyed them with machine guns.
Some less prominent Russian sources mentioned that Russian soldiers on the ship claimed that catching drones was tricky,.
One of them was shot down only 200 meters from the ship, so if they detected it half a minute later, there would have been a high chance that the kamikaze drone would hit the ship.
That is why the drones are launched at night.
Finally, today another explosion happened in Sevastopol.
If the previous explosion that happened several days ago was made by saboteurs who set explosives on the Russian ammunition depot, then today’s explosion happened in the aftermath of a successful drone strike.
Russian military and media once again tried to restrict access to the area and reported that all drones were shot down.
Unfortunately for Russians, the mushroom of smoke from the explosion could be seen miles away.
The head of Sevastopol claimed that the drone was intercepted and that all facilities are intact, and that the smoke that people saw was just from the burning grass.
Ukrainian sources reported that, judging by the footage, Russian lost another ammunition depot.
••The Ministry of Defense of Poland confirmed that Belarusian helicopters crossed the airspace of the country. NATO informed about the incident
“On August 1, 2023, there was a violation of Polish airspace by two Belarusian helicopters conducting exercises near the border [ Sulwalki ]. The border crossing took place in the Bialowieza area at a very low altitude, making it difficult to detect by radar systems. Therefore, in the morning report, it was reported that there were no violations of Polish airspace.
“It has been ordered to increase the number of soldiers at the border and to allocate additional forces and means, including combat helicopters,” the country’s Defense Ministry said in a statement.
A Belarusian Mi-8 and a Mi-24 seen and photographed. Poland moved snipers and put in new surveillance systems.
https://t.me/pilotblog/5672
==
“An attack by the Wagner Group on Poland will be recognized as an attack by Russia,” said US Permanent Representative to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield.
Attacks would test Poland/Lithuania reactions and could be used to force a Ukrainian ‘peace’ deal.
==
Drone “Beaver” that Ukraine uses to target Moscow - image
https://t.me/pilotblog/5680
==
Hard fight near Klishchiiva - Trench storming
https://t.me/pilotblog/5683
==
Oryx, July 26-31. Russia - 90, Ukraine - 42.
As you can see, the “burned convoy of Ukrainian equipment” near Rabotino accounts for twice as much Russian equipment burned in total.
In general, Ukraine continues to focus on the removal of Russian artillery pieces and has a significant advantage in counter-battery combat.
Also, Ukraine is destroying a significant amount of air defense systems - something that should protect Moscow from drones.
And, traditionally, the Russian Federation has as many as three lost control vehicles.
Also, the Russian Federation unexpectedly has a lot of lost tanks - 23, of which 13 are T-72s.
This is the result of unsuccessful attempts to advance in the Kupyansk direction and attempts to regain lost positions in Staromayorsky and near Bakhmut (well, and the ongoing assaults on Avdiivka and Marinka, of course).
Tanks:
Russia - 23
Ukraine - 8
BMP, BMD and other armored fighting vehicles (heavy):
Russia - 19
Ukraine - 16 (among them the first documented loss of the Swedish CV90)
Armored personnel carriers, support vehicles and other armored vehicles (including light ones):
Russia - 11
Ukraine - 11
Artillery:
Russia - 14
Ukraine - 2
Air defense systems and their individual components:
Russia - 5 (2 air defense systems 9K35 “Strela-10”, combat vehicle 9A331M for the air defense system “Tor”, PZU 9A316 and radar 9S36 for the air defense system “Buk-M2”)
Ukraine - 1 (ZRK 9K35 “Strela-10”)
Trucks:
Russia - 11
Ukraine - 1
UAVs (reconnaissance):
Russia 2
Ukraine - 2
Other valuable losses:
Russia - 5 (2 vehicles of the battery commander 1V14, KSHM R-149MA1, TZM 9T452 for the Uragan MLRS, Borisoglebsk-2 electronic warfare complex)
Ukraine - 1 AN/TPQ-50 radar
__
Total documented losses in vehicles since 02/24/2022
Russia - 11487
Ukraine - 4067
https://t.me/pilotblog/5684
==
Several explosions sounded in the Gvardeisky district of Crimea. The Gvardeiskoye air base is located there, where the 37th mixed aviation regiment of the Russian Federation is based. Video
https://t.me/pilotblog/5690
==
Grain prices in the world rose by 6.5% overnight, after the Russian attack on the port of Izmail in Odesa region, Reuters.
Analysts report that as of August 1, due to the disruption of the grain agreement, grain exports from Ukraine decreased by 40% for the month compared to June.
https://t.me/pilotblog/5695
Shoigu was glad that he was not dismissed, and promised Putin Odessa, Kherson and Kharkov
According to our sources in the Defense Ministry and the Kremlin, after Vladimir Putin decided not to dismiss him (at least not yet), the minister is in a state close to euphoria. In addition to intentions to take revenge on his enemies ( we wrote about them ), Sergei Kuzhugetovich made very ambitious promises to the president.
“In a recent conversation, the minister told Vladimir Vladimirovich that we will now repel the Ukrainian offensive and will be able to attack on our own.
“And as a result of this offensive, we will take Odessa, Kherson and Kharkov for ourselves, and, perhaps, we will also lay claim to Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye and Poltava,” the source in the Kremlin said.
He does not believe Shoigu, but Putin became interested in these intentions and asked for a plan for such an offensive.
The minister promised that the plan would be ready in a month at most.
Shoigu’s promises shocked even his close associates in the Defense Ministry. “We were instructed to write a plan of attack on Odessa, Kherson and Kharkov. We are in a stupor.
“You cannot write a realistic plan, you can only give a few ideas, such as mobilizing a million people and transferring the entire country to a military footing for the next three years.
“And even then ... Such a plan will be just paper with beautiful words. But the order was given, we write. Some kind of nonsense, to be honest,” one of Shoigu’s deputies complained to us.
In the General Staff, they fear that the minister’s big plans will generally lead to defeat in the Northern Military District.
“The Department of Defense is getting more and more into castles in the air.
At the front, the situation is now “on thin”, you know, you can lose.
Especially if you lose the feeling of reality,” one of the generals complained to us.
Another believes that Shoigu should be dismissed as soon as possible, until he “put our entire army on the meat.”
It seems that the conflict between the Minister of Defense and many influential military men will worsen even more in the near future, and Shoigu will have more enemies.
Where this will lead, we do not undertake to say yet.
The Eurasian Times:
According to Indian Air Force veteran Vijainer Thakur, Russia is preparing for a NATO intervention to contain it.
The Nizhny Novgorod Aviation Plant Sokol delivered a new batch of modernized MiG-31 fighter-interceptors to the Russian Ministry of Defense, which is expected to be a significant help to the Russian Aerospace Forces.
Getting an additional batch of MiG-31 interceptors can be a good help and significantly increase the combat potential in the fight against any potential enemy.
This aircraft has already proved its effectiveness, surpassing all other fighters involved in the Ukrainian conflict, said Thakur.
Moreover, since the beginning of the conflict, Moscow has lost only one MiG-31BM aircraft, and that as a result of a non-combat incident.
Military experts say Ukraine needs to obtain F-16s from its NATO partners, if it is to counter the threat from Russian high-altitude interceptors that flank and harass Ukrainian fighters and ground-based assets.
==
Wei Da, strategic research expert in cross-cultural communication for ThinkChina:
Lies can sometimes disguise themselves as truth.
Russia’s actions against Ukraine are accompanied by claims of self-righteousness and the portrayal of Ukraine as a neo-Nazi country.
This can be confusing and some blindly support these false claims.
Today, in the era of advanced information technology and the Internet, the lies spread by Russia are more likely to be exposed.
The true progress and development of states lies not in money, nuclear weapons, resources or brute force, but in the development of political civilization and the general progress of society.
Relying only on outdated methods and aggression will only lead to defeat in a world based on trade, technology and global values.
Political civilization is the core of the general civilized society.
Without it, wealth, science and technology, business and trade, the rule of law, education and art cannot reach their full potential.
Superficial adoption of Western experience without understanding the essence of political civilization is futile.
Successful development models may start with economic liberalization under conditions of political authoritarianism, but the transition to political democracy is always important.
The basic principles of which are democratic elections, a system of checks and balances, and civil rights.
It is logically inconsistent to reject modern political civilization in order to receive its benefits.
Following the fundamental principles is the most important condition for social progress.
Mere imitation cannot compare with reality.
==
The Wall Street Journal: Kyiv has helped makers of robotic planes increase the range and power of their strike after the US vetoed the use of weapons to strike Russia.
That Ukraine was able to strike the same office building in Moscow twice this week shows just how far the Ukrainian drone industry has come.
After the US and other Western allies placed conditions on the supply of advanced weapons, including long-range missiles and attack drones, preventing Kiev from using them to strike Russian territory, the Ukrainians decided to create their own deep-strike capability.
Over the past year, Ukraine has rapidly developed new systems and tactics that have made it one of the most advanced drones in the world, and in turn, Russia has faced an unexpected and unprecedented threat to its homeland.
According to Samuel Bendett, an expert on unmanned aerial vehicles of the Center for Naval Analysis, the Ukrainian defense industry is learning and adapting very quickly.
Bendett suggested that Kiev has already started or will soon start producing at least six different types of long-range suicide drones and that the recent strikes could be probing Russian air defenses in preparation for a massive attack involving dozens of drones that will descend on the city from several directions and on different heights
==
Bild: According to experts in the German government, the NWO will continue for a very long time, since there are still significant reserves, at least in terms of the number of soldiers.
According to experts from the German government, Russia can increase the number of active military personnel up to three million people: Moscow is ready to conduct NMD for another two to three years.
Then there will be more active soldiers in the Russian army than in the armed forces of China.
True, the level of training of many of these servicemen is probably not very high, but there are also massive problems with the Russian armed forces with equipment.
However, experts warn against underestimating the militarization of Russian society.
General SVR
Chairman of the Federation Council Valentina Matviyenko, either like the monkey from Ivan Krylov’s fable, “has become weak in her eyes”, and in addition her mind, or she cultivates steely restraint and self-control.
Otherwise, it is difficult to explain her behavior at a meeting with a man who looks like Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Yesterday, during a personal meeting with Valentina Ivanovna, the double, in the process of communication, unnecessarily relaxed, as a result of which, both in behavior and in the form of presenting information, and in the meaning of what was being discussed, he clearly exposed himself to such a sophisticated interlocutor as Matvienko.
But the Chairman of the Federation Council pretended not to notice all this, otherwise one could assume she had progressive dementia, but this is unlikely. As a result of the meeting, work on the mistakes was carried out with the double, and Valentina Ivanovna shared with her relatives an excellent impression of the meeting with the “president”.
Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday afternoon held a short meeting with representatives of the leadership of the military bloc, during which he listened to reports and closed it (the meeting) without questions or comments.
Throughout the day, the president accepted several more reports, but not one of them informed him about attacks by unmanned aerial vehicles, or about massive attempts to set fire to the buildings of military registration and enlistment offices with a wide geography on a national scale.
Only during an evening meeting with three representatives of the leadership of the power bloc, the Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation presented Putin with a detailed report on the state of affairs in the country.
The President refused to discuss the report, suggesting that Patrushev himself consider options for eliminating and blocking the problems and threats described in the report, and to provide him with a variant with a ready-made solution.
The Secretary of the Security Council drew Putin’s attention to the fact that he had already been presented with a large number of proposals with options for solving many urgent problems, but the president did not bother to take any of these decisions.
The head of state did not go into the discussion and said that everything would be in the near future, closed the meeting.
Putin has recently withdrawn from participation not only in the discussion of urgent issues and problems, but also does not make any decisions.
The system is still moving by inertia, but the crisis is not just around the corner, it is in the immediate vicinity.
Almost everyone in the president’s inner circle knows this and understands the inevitability of the crisis of power, the only thing they disagree on is the awareness of its depth and the scale of their personal catastrophe.
t.me/generalsvr /1730
ORYX was created by Bellingcat alumnae - both are CIA and Mi6 funded propaganda outlets whose mission is to BS the public to keep the money flowing to the MIC and the donor class of the Democratic Party. They’re inadvertently doing Gods work draining the west of its warmongering weaponry for generations to come while prolonging the conflict and hastening the dedollarization of the worlds financial system.
The drama surrounding Gonzalo’s fate takes place against the growing desperation of Ukraine. Ukraine’s attack on Moscow on two consecutive days with drones had zero military benefit for Kiev. One likely motive for this weak effort is the West’s persistent delusional belief that Putin’s domestic support is wilting and that these types of attacks will galvanize hardliners to oust him. I also believe that Ukraine is hoping these attacks will provoke a Russian response that will compel NATO to intervene militarily on behalf of Ukraine.
This is a fool’s errand and underscores the panic that is taking hold in both Kiev and NATO. We learned from the classified documents leaked from Jack Teixeira’s Discord account that a total of 12 Brigades were trained for this offensive. Normally, a brigade consists of 5,000 soldiers. Just do the math. That means a maximum of 60,000 troops. Based on briefings from Russia’s Defense Ministry, Ukraine has suffered at least 30,000 casualties since the start of the counter-offensive on June 4th. If true this means that 50% of Ukraine’s trained counter offensive soldiers have been eliminated from the battlefield. Minister of Defense Shoigu reported today that Ukraine’s casualties for July alone are 20,000. Those are horrific, catastrophic numbers and Ukraine does not have a ready supply of fresh, trained troops to throw into the battle.
What are the totals of US equipment losses in the Ukraine war/
🔥🔥🔥 In Russia 🇷🇺 & temporarily 🇷🇺-occupied Crimea, there were at least 28 attempts to set fire to Military Enlistment offices in the past five days.
https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1686759434561728512
A clear indication that Russian citizens are getting tired of the war.
The ruble dropped a couple of percent today, to around 94 to the dollar (about a 5% drop in a week). It was around 30 before Putin invaded the Ukraine (in 2014).
I wonder what prompted that recent move?
Soon the ruble will be less than a penny, and later, likely junk.
ISW RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, AUGUST 1, 2023
“Key Takeaways:
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) accused Ukraine of attempting to attack two Black Sea Fleet patrol boats with unmanned semi-submersibles on August 1.
Likely Ukrainian actors conducted another drone strike on Moscow City in the early hours of August 1.
The Russian MoD continues to posture Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov as an effective and involved overall theater commander in Ukraine.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko may have signaled his intent to use the Wagner Group to create a foundation for an unspecified Belarusian “contract army.”
Two Belarusian helicopters reportedly violated Polish airspace on August 1.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front and reportedly advanced near Bakhmut on August 1.
Russian companies not under Western sanctions continue to recruit volunteers to fight in the war in Ukraine.
Iran is pursuing the construction of drone factories in Belarus and Russia, which will help Russia acquire Iranian drones more readily and provide Iran with numerous economic and military benefits.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 1 and made advances in certain areas.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 1 and advanced near Kreminna and Bakhmut.
The Russian Cabinet of Ministers granted Russian volunteer fighters and Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic (DNR and LNR) militia fighters (opolcheniye) veteran status on August 1.
Russian occupation authorities continue to deport children from occupied regions of Ukraine to Russia under the guise of education and rehabilitation programs.”
Putin has changed the world - at least the natural gas market in Europe. Russia is no longer Europe’s biggest supplier - Norway is, and the USA is second. Russia has become nearly irrelevant.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Europes-LNG-Imports-Fall-To-20-Month-Low.html
Aug 02, 2023
“Europe’s benchmark natural gas prices have fallen in recent months and are now 80% lower than the records seen last summer amid ample gas inventories with storage sites on track to be full well in advance of EU targets.
EU gas storage levels are much higher than the five-year average and the levels from this time last year, easing concerns about Europe’s gas supply. The EU gas storage sites were 85% full as of July 31, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.”
