A Collection of Non-Western Analyses of Prigozhin's Apparent Revolt [Vanity]

[The following are compilations of Twitter threads from certain users who have generally been on Russia's side of the Russia/Ukraine war, though they certainly are not on the same page with regards to their opinion of Putin and Russia's handling of the invasion of Ukraine. After the dashes, all of their tweets will be compiled in order, with the last tweet quoted denoted by subsequent hashtags.]

[They've also all noted that their analyses are subject to change based on how things unfold from here.]

Given what we know now about Prigozhin's rebellion - particularly that some 3/4 of Wagner refused to participate - it's likely Putin knew about the plot well in advance and, ever the judoka, allowed it to go forward for reasons of his own.

1. Consolidation of power. Most of the Russian political class vocally lined up in support of Putin during the incident. Those who did not have doubtless been noted and can expect unusual but plausibly-deniable deaths in the near to medium term.

2. Fully discrediting Prigozhin as a leadership figure. Simply killing or arresting him would have run the risk of turning him into a martyr, particularly among his well-armed mercenary army. Now he's a traitor in exile with no troops to speak of.

3. Full integration of Wagner into the regular Russian military. To the extent that the Wagner Group is allowed to continue to exist going forward, it will act as a fully integrated branch of the Russian security services rather than a semi-independent actor.

4. Wringing the last bit of tactical usefulness out of Prigozhin's antics, which have spurred many disastrous Ukrainian counterattacks aimed at taking advantage of "chaos" in the Russian camp. The AFU redoubled their efforts in the last two days with huge losses and few gains.

I think it's fairly clear at this point that to the extent Prigozhin's various incendiary statements and acts over the last few months have been a "psyop," he wasn't in on the joke. RuMoD clearly let him run wild and exploited the predictable Ukrainian responses.

It's also obvious that if the regular Russian military was refusing to give Wagner a blank cheque of support over the last few months, their reasons for doing so were excellent. Prigozhin was as dangerous to Russia as Ukraine and required very close supervision and control.

Prigozhin's timing was likely spurred by his longtime anti-RuMoD talking point that "only Wagner brings victory" getting discredited daily in Zaporozhe. His outsized importance to the Russian war effort - and his standing as a warlord - was shrinking before his eyes.

He may have himself been banking on a Russian military collapse to seize power riding a wave of disaffection and demoralization. Which quite neatly explains many of his recent statements denigrating the efforts of the Russian Army in seeing off the Ukrainian spring offensive.

And how did it all end? Well, Prigozhin wound up and threw his punch - and found himself flat on his back with no idea how he got there. Remarkably on point.

Of course Western outlets will try to paint this as a loss for Putin, but let's be honest - that's cope.

Snide addendum summing up my thoughts on the matter: If someone keeps making lemonade out of lemons, there's really only two conclusions you can draw - they're either profoundly lucky, or they're running a lemonade stand.

[Lastly, in response to someone who asked if Prigozhin and Putin actually acted in tandem:] People were killed. If that's the case they're both stone cold.

From Baron of the Taiga: https://twitter.com/baronitaigas/status/1672698166825693184

Given that we now seem to have firm details from the presidential office, I will break my silence on what has unfolded. This is of course only my opinion.

I answer, yes. Without question. And not because of the purported downing of Russian aircraft by forces of PMC Wagner (this has yet to be confirmed officially and Peskov's latest statement calls the 'photos' into question).

Instead, the answer is yes because of the very real damage this has done to Russia, primarily in the diplomatic sphere, and I will elaborate more on this below. The actions of the Wagner PMC over the last 24 hours expose a serious deficiency in the country's crisis-management.

Perhaps this is to be expected given the strains of the war in Ukraine, but it is still unforgivable. It raises questions not only about the long-term stability of Russia (which has financial implications) but also the competence of its security agencies.

Although any criticism of the services in Rostov are misplaced. They were heavily outnumbered by Prigozhin's mob, and under the circumstances, not engaging them was the prudent thing to do.

We can also say unequivocally the dissolution of Wagner PMC (which now seems inevitable) severely harms relationships built across Africa in particular with local allies. The PMC cannot be trusted to fulfil any functions on the continent after this incident.

"But it was so short!" - Failed coups often are "But there wasn't much killing!" - This was a risk, but always unlikely given you were asking brother to shoot brother on both sides here, some who may have seen combat together.

The last refuge of the 'psyop' theory (which is no different to the 'imaginary coup to consolidate state power' theory) is that some kind of other more serious coup was about to be launched, and this fake one was launched to derail it, but I very much doubt this.

So, we arrive at the second question. What are we to make of Yevgeny Victorovich and his actions? To Russia, there is only one word that can adequately describe this man now, and that word is traitor. On this point, an important caveat must be made:

The fighters of PMC Wagner, at least the lower ranks, are unlikely to be culpable to a significant extent. Coups more often than not involve quite a bit of deception even against the people holding the guns. But several senior commanders, most ex-military, are culpable.

What occurred over the last 24 hours was, when we take into account the entire range of effects, the worst crime against the country since probably the 1990s. That it took place during a conflict of an existential nature makes it all the more egregious.

Prigozhin has achieved all of these negative effects for his country, not to mention destroying the organization he claimed to represent. What motivated him? On this, I think the evidence available leaves very little room for speculation.

As many have pointed out, this attempted coup (and that is exactly what it was) did not occur "spontaneously", "in a fit of rage or madness", it was planned in advance, probably MONTHS in advance, and the timing is everything.

After all, according to all our vaunted "experts", right now the Ukrainian Armed Forces were meant to have occupied Melitopol with a corresponding breakdown in the Russian military. Against the backdrop of this, an attempt to seize power would have seemed most opportune.

The only problem is, when you lay such plans, if things don't go the way you had envisioned, you cannot necessarily back out of the cul-de-sac! The evidence exists and may be impossible to destroy. You may be forced to go, no matter the circumstances.

And this is precisely what I think happened. This brings me to the next point which would rule out any kind of spooky meaning behind these events: Prigozhin's own statements just prior to the launch of his putsch.

These were words that could have been lifted from an RDK internal memo. They were as if designed to lay the groundwork for an amicable "understanding" (read: surrender) to NATO. Let's recall what Prigozhin said about his country.

He stated that Russia's stated cause for entering the war was a lie, and in true Stenka Razin style, that the 'Tsar had been deceived!'. He even went so far as to spit on the people of Donetsk claiming that Ukraine never harmed them whatsoever.

He then even threw his own organization under the bus, claiming it was sent to Africa to plunder it for oligarchs, and that this was what Russia was intending for Ukraine. Are these the words of a man who you think would have continued the war?

And what use were these words if the entire thing was a large piece of theater? Why would the Kremlin have Prigozhin say such atrociously damaging things when they really added nothing to his cause, given the background of the simmering and well-known feud with the MoD?

These words were not written by the people who pushed Prigozhin. They were written for the people he hoped to climb into bed with after the coup, the various traitors abroad, people like Khodorkovsky, who received news of the coup with utter glee.

Whether Prigozhin was in contact already with handlers in the west before this broke out, its difficult to say. It seems likely. But nothing quite went to plan, because Ukraine failed to create a military crisis for Russia, much to everyone's surprise.

Notice also, Prigozhin almost had ready-baked statements for this military disaster he expected, and when it didn't happen, he published them anyway! He claimed, contrary to all war correspondents (even MoD-hostile ones) that UAF was achieving great success in the south.

So, when the coup unfolded, what did we find? Nobody supported Prigozhin except the enemy, except known traitors. Within hours, he was denounced by every governor in the country, the president, every major political party, and every prominent Telegram channel.

Like January 6th, it became apparent quickly that a lot of noise does not a seizure of power make. You have to either have the entire military apparatus on your side, or have significant backing from some political faction. He could find none.

So the attempt as clearly becoming unglued before Lukashenko stepped in to mediate. The outcome, according to the Kremlin, is quite clear. Wagner PMC will be dissolved. Prigozhin will be exiled to Belarus. No change of MoD personnel was apparently discussed.

His life was spared to prevent more bloodshed in the name of this narcissistic bandit, to prevent a fratricidal conflict that, while even most western analysts said was unlikely to go his way, could cost Russia its positions in Ukraine.

And speaking of Ukraine, we find that although their loud suited jackals jumped on this unfortunate incident, their army was slow to respond. Like the retreat from Kherson, it appears the moment to inflict maximum damage to Russia slipped through their fingers.

Russia has had 'loose' command structures cause it problems before. In 1682, the Streltsy, who formed the regulars of the Russian army, whilst helping the regent Sofia obtain power, illegally occupied the capital and turned it into their own personal barracks.

Their leader, Ivan Kovansky, was eventually beheaded along with his son, and Peter the Great destroyed the Streltsy after their final attempt to seize power, and the entire army was reorganized. Prigozhin is the Kovansky of our time. What he has done is unforgivable.

His laughable fraud about his men's camp being targeted by the Russian military (now recognized as staged by almost everyone), his clearly exaggerated outbursts during the siege of Bakhmut, his disgraceful use of his men's bodies as props, it has led to this final disgrace.

But it was all allowed to happen. And this is the critical point. The situation is defused, the war seems to be continuing, and the complete absence of support from society for the plotters does not bode well for any future attempts by someone else, but the damage is done.

The experiment of Wagner PMC, cooked up in backrooms to skirt around the stifling limitations of the Russian Federation's constitution, has exploded in the scientists' face. Putin oversaw the creation of a new Streltsy on Russian soil, and he crowned a new Kovansky over it.

For all the voluminous failures that can be put at the door of Gerasimov, Shoigu, and a host of as-yet-nameless Russian intelligence officials, this failure is on the president. For now, the requirement of stability in the face of NATO's efforts to destroy the country protect him

But more than ever, it has become apparent that Russia requires a new constitution, and as soon as this war is concluded (if it is concluded on favorable terms to Russia) a new president. What fate holds in store for Prigozhin, a disgrace to his country, we shall see.

For now, we return to the war. So far, it seems all men on the front continued to do their duty in this most difficult hour, when a madman held a dagger to their backs. Russia has lost a very capable force, but all other things mostly hold constant.

Concern about Russia's silent allies is certainly warranted, but we should remember the (much more serious imo) attempt by Turkey's actual army to overthrow Erdogan did not seriously damage the country's external relations long-term with its established allies.

Besides, I think everyone in the world does, after living with Russia for several hundred years, expect it to get a little crazy once in a while. Strange and tragic events are part of the national makeup.

(Addendum): I did not make any Telegram posts while this event was ongoing because I could see live the insane amount of misinformation being spread online, some of it quite obviously deliberate, some of it a result of idiocy, and some of it a result of clout-chasing.

I'm not going to embarrass any accounts on here by naming them, but there are some high profile accounts in this information space whose conduct over the last 24 hours has been disgraceful and calls into question if their strings are being pulled.

I won't be sharing content from these accounts going forward. Opinion is fine, qualified speculation is fine, but alleging imaginary events which could lead to people you claim to support getting killed during such a tense situation is frankly reprehensible.

[Lastly, in response to someone who asked why he discounted the possibility that this was actually a psyop:] Because during the entire affair, Prigozhin made incredibly damaging comments about Russia that the Russian government could have no motive in getting him to say. They could only do harm.

From Anatoly Karlin: https://twitter.com/powerfultakes/status/1672931562743054398

Best explanation to date is from @marmar_ae (see attached Tweet): Some conbination of razborka and chimp-out over redirecting the money flows to Wagner back to the Russian military, from which it had previously been cannibalizing by promising more bang for the buck, thus allowing the risk-averse Putin to defer on the tough decisions needed to win the war (aka mobilize much more manpower and spending).

PS. I don't really agree with Marko's extremely negative assessment of Wagner's combat power ("fradulent new-age start-up guru bullshit"). Prigozhin himself probably had little to do with it directly, but at least unlike Putin, he's able to select people who have some baseline talent and integrity as opposed to Presiding over a structure in which they always fail upwards. The result is an organization that can accomplish feats like this "Highway War" to Moscow - Utkin's accomplishment, with even Strelkov giving him his due accolades on it https://t.me/strelkovii/5707, operations that the Russian military is incapable of accomplishing (at least outside the Konashenkov clown show). But this is an aside.

Back to the corporate dispute. Many assumed (including myself) that it was a classic coup, because all the pieces fit. You don't just move in force on Moscow, downing helicopters and killing a dozen+ uniformed Russian military along the way, have your Telegram channels scream that "The President made the wrong choice; we will soon have another President" if your goals just boil down to... making a forceful point.

I made the observation that uniformed grunts weren't eager to fight Wagner very early on, and this was why I said that I'm bullish on Wagner's chances: https://twitter.com/powerfultakes/status/1672593501282861065 That remained true for the entirety of the corporate dispute. Just before Prigozhin folded, prediction markets were giving a 2/3 chance to Wagner being in control of Moscow by July 1. https://twitter.com/powerfultakes/status/1672537360246898689

This was also when I quickly decided that the optimal outcome from this otherwise disastrous misadventure was either the quick success of the coup, or Prigozhin becoming a red splotch ASAP. The only certainty was that any protracted struggle was guaranteed to be utterly ruinous. I saw that scenario as relatively low likelihood, but not impossible. And I would also note that I forcefully underlined that the "Russian Civil War" that many had begun to salivate over was close to an impossibility.

I didn't even consider the fourth option in which a deal would be struck, mostly because in any "normal" country, democratic (see what happened to the Jan 6 loiterers) or authoritarian or even "mafia state", you don't back down from that once embarked upon unless you want to end up in jail or dead (the President/dictator/capo/etc. doesn't forgive failed challengers whom he promises to brutally put down before the entire nation). However, I keep failing to remember that Putinism doesn't operate by any normal rules but by neo-feudal ones with "magical" elements https://twitter.com/powerfultakes/status/1672733559004573697, so just as historical knowledge of WW2 was negative value added to understanding the Ukraine War military outcomes, so game theory considerations are powerless to explain its political flux. https://twitter.com/devarbol/status/1672664567091003394

Either way, while obviously not catastrophic in the short-term, this episode still hews to a consistent pattern of ruin that projected forwards ends in disaster.

(1) Further regime delegitimization by reinforcing the neo-feudal aspects of the regime (feudalism having been become uncompetitive in the marketplace of ideas/abandoned by EHC several centuries ago). No regular unit that pulled a tenth of what Prigozhin did wouldn't get privileged exile to Lord Luka's demesne. https://twitter.com/marmar_ae/status/1672739622562955265

(2) I am really curious to know what the Air Force, who lost ~5% of all the helicopters they lost during the course of the entire Ukraine War to a mutineer who has now been pardoned, think about this, and what conclusions if any they are making from it.

(3) Russia loses the great bulk of Wagner's combat power in the midst of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, at a time when it's manpower problems are again growing critical (in light of its practice of generating fake new soldiers by getting mobiks to sign contracts). This makes a new wave of mobilization even more urgent, although at this point what kind of naive loser would willingly answer the summons (note that Prigozhin had just called the entire premise of the SMO a lie, claimed the MOD uses its troops as cannon fodder, and is now back to being a "handshakeworthy" person again).

(4) It now emerges that no actual commitments to replacing Shoigu/Gerasimov, Wagner's core demand, were made (largely irrelevant point anyway, given no credible enforcement mechanism, but anyway). If anything, Putin now has an incentive to avoid doing that in order to not project weakness specifically, and to double down on his "loyalty over competence" strategy in general in light of the unsavory Wagner experience.

Literally the one benefit for Russia I can extract from this that's not of the Z glue huffing cope category is that this might have perhaps made the Ukrainians too overconfident in Russian weakness, and liable to do some counter-vailing idiocies of their, e.g. trying to repeat Utkin's thunder run on Moscow under the aegis of the RDK under the assumption they wouldn't be fired upon either. https://twitter.com/powerfultakes/status/1672742383052619776

From General Surovikin [No actual relation to the real-life Russian General Sergey Surovikin]: https://twitter.com/_Surovikin_/status/1673022054302351360

The repercussions of yesterday's events will have a lasting impact on Russian society. However, despite all the negatives, there is some information and several positive rumors. Let's delve into the details:

Yesterday, a significant number of influential individuals were removed from their positions, a move that typically takes years to accomplish. As one friend astutely remarked, we will soon witness who will not show up for work on Monday...

At least a hundred officials ran away to Georgia, including agents with foreign affiliations. Others escaped to Turkey and inadvertently fulfilled Turkish Airlines' annual budget. The price per ticket was 200.000 Rubels.

In the United States, Congress grew increasingly concerned about the "potentially unsettling" activities of Wagner, Ahmat, and other units. Contrary to popular belief, not all Americans are stupid. In the US, the fear of a significant build-up of troops and equipment near the borders of western Ukraine grew. Although they may not fully comprehend the situation, they understand that this formidable force could potentially lead to a disastrous outcome for Ukraine.

In summary, the Ukrainians grossly overlooked the massive redeployment of Russian troops and equipment. The consequences of this oversight will most likely become apparent soon. It is worth noting that this redeployment was orchestrated by units that frequently receive orders directly from Supreme Commander V. V. Putin rather than the General Staff.

Rumors are circulating that Dyumin will be appointed as the Minister of Defense. He is a highly esteemed general and is greatly admired by soldiers while being disliked by the bureaucrats. During the spring of 2014, Dyumin, despite Shoigu's attempts to prevent the landing, deployed the "little green men" to Crimea.

Surovikin, also known as General Armageddon, is rumored to be appointed the Chief of the General Staff. However, one should not forget that until the official order is signed, it remains a rumor.

Yesterday, several DRGs were apprehended in the capital, with additional detentions taking place in the Voronezh and Tula regions. According to some people I know in Ru MoIA, this is just the beginning of something bigger and the main course will be served on Monday. I predict a series of intriguing resignations, sudden illnesses, and criminal cases to ensue.

Just yesterday, numerous media outlets and bloggers underwent astonishing shifts in their viewpoints. Especially someone we all know, Rybar.

Even with the circumstantial evidence and rumors I have described, it is fair to assert that the coup has already occurred and was successful to some degree. What follows now, are mere consequences. This coup caught the West and the fifth column inside off guard and has shown that the people of Russia are united as never seen before.

From Von Clownsewitz's War College: https://twitter.com/VonClownsewitz/status/1672952421943836672

As I've been saying since yesterday, a lot of insight can be gleamed from looking at this through the lens of the 2016 Turkish "coup attempt".

- Perfect excuse to replace Shoiygu and Gerasimov with hardliners without it looking like an escalation (common interpretation now is that this makes Moscow look weak)

- Wagner is now consolidated under MOD control (contracts signed, Prigo has previously refused).

Probably something I'm not thinking of and a trap of some sort that wasn't baited, like UAF "taking advantage of the chaos" and exposing themselves, but the Americans wisely advised to hang back and wait (though more likely because they felt that advancing might deter the march on Moscow).

The usual caveat: this is just speculation, and it's hard to speculate motives after the fact, because we risk inferring that likely results were all intended, which I'm sure I'm doing here, but at least I'm aware of it.

I’m just going to lay out the the recent coup attempt in Russia. (Sorry for the novel)

•Putin is holding a meeting on Monday so we will likely find out more after that most likely.

•8000 men took a major city center and southern military HQ. After which they preceded to drive 10 hours to Moscow unabated. The convoy was 1000-2000 men and vehicles at most. Little to no fighting reported on the ground. 13 casualties from aircraft losses, 11 of which were on a single plane that prigozhin has since apologized for stating it was an “accident” and he will be paying the families 50 million rubles each (not good enough but still means most were unintentional). Helicopter losses included a KA-52 with both pilots having been reported KIA bringing the total to 13. The convoy made it to the Moscow outer circles where they stopped and a negotiated settlement was reached.

•This whole coup attempt lasted less than 2 days and wrapped up extremely calmly. There was no effect on the SMO or civilian life at all outside of traffic, see street sweepers in Rostov.

•This analysis is incomplete as we don’t know what the reverse side of the negotiations are. If it’s extremely beneficial for Putin and the MOD we can assume that this was a wildly overblown situation using information warfare and the Russian government was never in any threat, coup attempt stomped out with very little intentional blood loss from either side. This could also potentially mean that the Kremlin/MOD knew this was coming and let it proceed as a way of potentially consolidating power, weeding out traitors and solving the Wagner issue (Attached picture). This is what I would consider a form of “Psyop”, if the Russians knew, let it happen, and played it up to the masses that’s a psychological operation.

•There’s also the idea that this whole thing was planned by both sides and the loss of aircraft definitely make it seem real. I’ll let you come to your own conclusions on that one. Although for someone who killed Russians and 8000 of his fellow traitors they got off easy. •Which leads me to the final option in my opinion. This was all face value real, there are massive problems in the Russian government/MOD and Prigozhin being the insane man that he is rallied and tried to change the situation by force. If this is the case he succeeded in just surviving for the time being. An even bigger win for Prigo would be if come Monday some monumental changes come to Ru leadership. It’s important to state that these change could be both negative and positive for Putin depending on what perspective you choose to entertain. If he knew and played into it then he wanted the changes, if this was a real coup these changes may be wanted or unwanted.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/24/us-intelligence-prigozhin-putin/

These takes are all from Russian partisans of various degrees. They are posted for the sake of comparison with the umpteen Daily Mail articles being posted by the hour that breathlessly speculate about Russia disintegrating into civil chaos.

Needless to say, they run the range from quite optimistic to very pessimistic.

But they do provide some interesting insight nonetheless.

My theory(ahem)....

Wagner’s work was done.
They needed to pull out of Ukraine.
Has they stated that their work was done and pulled out...the ukes would have followed them and shot and shelled and bombed the crap out of them.
So, they stated that they were going to go into Russia to goafter Putin’s generals....and maybe even Putin...
The ukes ain’t gonna attack those who are attacking Russia are they?
So they make token “gains”...then Wagner quits the “coup”. Now outta the Ukraine..
Putin allows Wagner to deploy and forgives them...
The west and USA just got played with our amateurish administration and 24/7 media idiocy and phony pundits trying to interpret the “meaning” of all of this...
Ha, Ha...Wagner’s safely out of Ukraine..says Putin....
IMHO

Assuming Wagner is getting redeployed to Belarus where Prigozhin’s [allegedly] been exiled, that gives them a chance to be within 70 miles of Kiev (based on the closest point of Belarus’s border with Ukraine), which would be an odd thing to do if getting out of Ukraine was the primary goal.

A covert redeployment while Western media salivates over Putin getting potentially ousted, maybe? It’s possible.

Agreed. That would be a distinct possibility....and a very sneaky way to accomplish the redeployment without being in the Ukraine...All of the articles you posted are probably offered up by the Russkies in order to stir up the speculation pot....of the media...both private and profit.

Pre emptive fake analysis.

Someone else on the pro-Russian side described this as a mutiny, rather than coup.

I think this was more about change in military leadership and policy, rather than regime change.

Yesterday, recruiting posters for Wagner were being taken down. Now they are going back up. So we will have to see if Wagner disappears as a separate force from the Russian Army, or ...

A number of people in the meme world are saying that Putin/Wagner have stolen a march on Ukraine and the Wagner troops are now in Belarus and around 100K from Kiev.

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