Just my opinion, but this probably is more of a contributor to the 'lets bring bodies back into the buildings' than productivity issues.
Are Pension funds and retirement accounts divesting from these REITS? If they’re not doing it now, I have no sympathy. Of course, Congress is expected to bail them out again
How exactly?
Anyone that can fog a mirror on a cold morning saw this coming. It happens every down cycle and is additionally burdened with lingering COVID work from home policies. Empty building don’t pay for themselves.
For us regular Joe’s, the question has been, will it spread to residential? It normally does, but I don’t think it will this time. In my area, inventory is too low for prices to fall. Even with the higher rates, homes sell same day above asking price here. You’ve got Blackrock and millions of new illegals as additional buyers in the market. You’ve also got the green pressure on development. Increasingly woke finance will cut off capital to traditional developers in favor of developers building Martin sized boxes for us. I already see this happening. The only housing available here are small apartments in increasingly larger complexes.
I suspect land and homes will become more valuable than gold. Especially, if you have good water.
Lucky I never ran a bank. I’d be like: “Tell me again why a new shopping mall is a good idea, considering that most people now buy from Amazon and the existing malls have been taken over by Canadians*, thanks to court rulings”. “Tell me again why I should finance your office building plans when half of office workers now work from home?”
*neutral term used here in order to avoid charges of racism.
The big one is office space in large cities is not as necessary as it once was.
When you look at progressive big cities and their approach to policing an unintended consequence is rampant homelessness, street crime, and shop lifting. That means that central city shopping is no longer viable. Hence in places like San Francisco, the developers of major hotels and shopping centers as saying to the banks and pension funds that loaned them money........we quite, take the empty property and good luck to you.
When you look at old shopping centers you find that Amazon.com and other on-line shopping have destroyed many tenants to the point that they are being transitioned into multi-family housing.
Yes, commercial real estate has serious viability problems and that means that banks, pension funds and others that hold the loans on these pieces of property are going to be looking at defaults or renegotiated loan terms at less favorable rates.
They’ll get a bailout.
F.I.R.P.
Federal Immigration Relief Program, where each (illegal) will automatically have a remodeled office space home.
....or the likes coming
That’s the bailout.