“The deep question is as to whether the uke troops doing this are part of the 13 brigades the Ukes are said to have in reserve for the summer offensive”
I have been wondering that as well. No doubt professionals are watching for that indicator as well. I suspect that if Ukraine had committed its counterattack forces, people would be abuzz about it.
One consideration, is that the Ukrainians may have received a big supply of Artillery shells. There were reports lately that Ukrainian forces had lifted their Artillery budget constraints on units in contact, and it had become “fire at will”. There were also reports of increased Ukrainian counter battery fire against Russian guns, further shifting the Artillery balance.
In recent weeks, European Countries agreed on a new finance and production program, that allows participating Countries to immediately release a million shells from inventory, and South Korea agreed to “lend” the USA another 500,000, to cover releases from stocks. So a flood of Artillery supply is likely reaching Ukrainian units.
Among the Artillery shells provided before, were thousands of “smart” rounds, like the American Excalibur, and European SMArt. Those 155mm rounds have their own sensors and tail fins, to guide themselves the last bit. Pretty much one shot, one kill on moving armored vehicles, if you drop them inside their range box.
In addition to the shift in the Artillery balance, preparatory phases for the counteroffensive have begun softening up Russian forces generally, disrupting logistics, blinding sensors, and just recently, killing Commanders. Everybody knows the counteroffensive is coming - it is all over Russian social media. So Russian draftees are primed to run.
I wonder how much of the new artillery rounds were at Khmelnitsky, and, if so, how that affects the timeline of the counter offensive?
The ammo should be quickly dispersed as it arrives.