Previous day’s thread: https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4152407/posts
Ukraine: military situation update with maps - May 10, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> Daily Battle Maps by Date and Region, Showing Troop Dispositions and Movements: <——
https://deepstatemap.live/
==
-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
The Russian military, the second largest military in the world, may not be what it looks like. Lies and systematic corruptions may in fact have dragged Russia into this war with Ukraine, which has been heavily backed up by the US and NATO. We will present the evidence, you make your own decision, because the Russian Army, is not what you think.
==
-—> Understanding Combined Arms Warfare <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZOGdKANL5s
Designed to support the U.S. Army Captains Career Course, “Understanding Combined Arms Warfare” defines and outlines the important aspects of modern combined arms operations. This is not a complete history of combined arms warfare. It is intended to highlight the most important aspects of the subject.
The beginning of the documentary establishes a common understanding of combined arms warfare by discussing doctrinal and equipment developments in World War I. The second part compares the development of French and German Army mechanization during the interwar period and describes how each country fared during the Battle of France in 1940. The film concludes by showing how the United States applied combined arms operations in the European Theater in World War II.
==
-—> Combined Arms Breach, 1990 <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-sCT_maAQ
What UA will have to master to smash Orc Lines. This visualization was developed for the Maneuver Center of Excellence and is closely based upon the National Training Center Breach and Assault exercise executed circa 1990. This visualization demonstrates viable Techniques, and Procedures as discussed in Army Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures March 3, 1990 for the conduct of the combined arms breach against a hypothetical enemy.
==
-—> How Many of Each Type of Tank Does Russia Have In Storage? <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PHUK6zkbpc
Type Good 2023
T-54/55 270
T-62 560
T-64 248
T-72 1841
T-80 942
T-90 50
~3,911 operational tanks in storage as of ~04/07/2023 | Ball park tank number.
==
-—> Contrast & Compare: the T-14 Armada [The AliExpress Tank]: The Best Russian Tank Ever! [very funny] <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-opSlCGLGQ4
Excerpt:
As to how the Storm Shadow will be employed, that’s unclear, although Wallace seemed to indicate that it would be air-launched, and not adapted for a ground launcher.
He said that part of the reason for the time it has taken to get the missile to Ukraine was due to “working out if it was technically feasible” to integrate them on unfamiliar aircraft.
The Ukrainian Air Force’s MiG-29 Fulcrum fighter jets and Su-25 Frogfoot attack jets are likely unable to carry the Storm Shadow. Each missile weighs around almost 2,900 pounds. The heaviest weapons routinely carried by the MiG-29 and Su-25 are only around 1,100 pounds each.
The heaviest-lifting stores pylons on the Frogfoot can only accommodate weapons of 1,100 pounds, and heavier weapons are rarely ever seen on early-model MiG-29s.
This would seem to suggest that the Su-27 Flanker fighter jet and/or the Su-24 Fencer strike aircraft would be the likely candidates as Storm Shadow shooters. These larger aircraft have much greater payload capacities and the Su-24, in particular, can routinely carry weapons of over 3,300 pounds each.
To what degree work has been completed to integrate the Storm Shadow on the aircraft that will carry it into combat is unclear. In theory, however, the process shouldn’t be too onerous, with the Storm Shadow missile being preprogrammed with target coordinates before flight, meaning there is no need for an interface allowing the aircraft to feed data in before launch.
The missile’s range also promises to overhaul the strike capabilities of the Ukrainian Air Force in general, although much will depend on how many of these expensive weapons have actually been supplied.
Each Storm Shadow is thought to cost around $2.5 million and, although an upgrade program is underway, the United Kingdom is already planning to replace these weapons, meaning they will become surplus to requirements from around 2030, in any case.
It will be interesting to see how Russia’s air defense posture changes in Crimea now that Storm Shadow is in play.
Whatever way Storm Shadow ends up being used by Ukraine, its presence alone and the precedent it sets could make the biggest impact.
It will be interesting to see not only how effective an advanced cruise missile might be in Ukrainian hands, but also whether it will now open the door to other long-range strike weapons also being approved for transfer to Ukraine. Regardless, which ever way it plays out, it is very bad news for Russia.
[ Domino Effect in Action | Their Defense is Falling Apart | Desertion Spreads by The Minute | Russian Run Away En Mass ]
••Day 442: May 11
Today there is a lot of good news. First of all, Ukrainians finally received long-range missiles. Today UK Defense Secretary confirmed that they decided to supply Ukraine with the Storm Shadow cruise missile that has a range of over 250 km.
By contrast, the US-supplied HIMARS missiles only have a range of around 80 km. On top of that, these missiles are also low-observable, so the Russian air defense will be facing even more challenges from now on.
Simultaneously, Polish officials confirmed that they supplied Ukraine with 14 fighter jets, MiG-29. This came in very handy because the British cruise missiles are actually air-launched. The distance between the Crimean Bridge and the closest Ukrainian position is 246 km, so Ukrainians still do not have a huge buffer zone when it comes to target number one.
It looks like Ukrainians will have to rely on ballistic missile Hrim-2 if they want to reach the Crimean Bridge for sure, while the British cruise missiles are more suitable for targeting Russian supplies lines and sending a huge shock through the rear because all the biggest ammunition depots, warehouses with equipment, and command centers are approximately 90 km away from the front, which means that now they are within reach of Ukrainian Air Force.
When it comes to the Bakhmut direction, Russians flanks started to fall apart. If, previously, Russian troops were abandoning their positions on the southern flank, then today, the trend reached the Russians on the northern flank.
Yesterday I told you that after Ukrainians penetrated Russian defense near the canal and forced Russians to abandon their positions south of Ivanivske, Ukrainians put Russian troops in the forest in operational encirclement and would likely try to finish them next.
And this is exactly what happened today. It was reported that Ukrainians opened two lines of attack: from the northern part of the forest and from Ivanivske. The engagements were light because Ukrainians understood that Russians were cut off from supplies.
As a result, closer to the second half of the day, Russians started running low on ammunition, and with no prospect of improvement of the situation, several detachments from the 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade abandoned multiple positions in this region.
After seeing that their fellow men abandoned their positions, soldiers from the same 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade left a huge trench network north of Klischiivka. This is the biggest and the most fortified position south of Bakhmut. Prigozhin reported that he had to send his men from Bakhmut to plug this hole in the flank.
Today Ukrainians also launched a huge counterattack on the northern flank. In a similar fashion, Ukrainians started undermining Russian defense from the corner between Bohdanivka and a small river. After initial success, the scale of the attack was increased, and Ukrainians opened two vectors of attack directed towards each other.
As a result, the Russian 9th Motorized Rifle Brigade started abandoning their positions, which resulted in even bigger first-day penetration than to the south. Right now, Ukrainians are heavily shelling Russian troops in Berkhivka and Yahidne.
It looks like Ukrainians are moving in the direction of Bekhivka from the south and may very soon attack in the same direction from the north. This will put Russian forces in Zaliznianske and Dubovo-Vasylivka in the operational encirclement in the same way it put the Russians in the forest in the operational encirclement.
Such a tactic allows Ukrainians not only to generate tactical gains at a much lower cost but also allows to capture a lot of unused equipment. As Russians were preparing to face a huge frontal attack from Minkivka, these forces accumulated a lot of heavy equipment, such as RPGs, anti-tank mines, and a plethora of machine guns, mortars, and other equipment, which they cannot take in an event of a rapid retreat.
So, Ukrainians can seize a lot of trophies not only to the south of Bakhmut, but also to the north.
••Dennis goes over recent UA gains around Bakhmut and speculates on the next moves. Wagner has quite a lot of troops in Soledar they could use to counter attack, but if they do, then they will lose Soledar as the UA is only 11 km away t the north. UA forces are pushing Orcs south toward Bilohorivka.
==
Prigozhin excoriates RGF troops from the 72nd for abandoning positions in the south, however UA troops observed it was the Wagners who left first. UA had their positions encircled and negotiated for 2 hours, before most of the 72nd surrendered
Prigozhin seems to be maneuvering his troops away from the flanks to blackmail the RGF, Shoigu, Gerasimov, and Putin to give him what he wants: power and influence within the RGF.
==
Denys said from the videos he’s seen of the UA around Bakhmut, they are not using a lot of the new equipment; the counterattacking troops are not a significant force.
==
Meanwhile, panicking Russian social media using MoD information claimed the UA troops attacking Bakhmut are the main counter attack. Then, the MoD called that information fake and more panic set in. [Abandoned Orc positions look like trash dumps.]
Orc military bloggers said their troops don’t have enough equipment to fight against UA heavy vehicles and tanks. Yet it was precisily those sorts of weapons which the Orc troops abandoned in piles.
==
With Storm Shadow missiles the US can now target the Orc airfields around Sevastopol & Simferopol; releasing the missile right at the frontline around Orikhiv could hit the Kersh bridge. Now all the Russian ammo dumps, troop concentrations, and HQs located out of reach of HIMARS are targets again.
==
UK has now transferred all 18 challengers to UA.
==
Poland has transferred 14 MiG-29s to Ukraine.
==
Shows image of T-55 with cope cage working in a muddy tree line, but with no reactive armor or other modernizations - just the standard old tank.
==
Gherkin is not optimistic about Russian forces against the UA counter attack. He said the min thrusts will be from Orikhiv and from Kherson, while another deflective attack will happen in Donets. Many “experts” agree. That assessment adds even more panic. Locals start to flee from Donets and Luhansk as well as the southern areas.
==
Strange announcement from Z that counter offensive will wait until they have all of the promised Western gear, but the West has said it has transferred everything needed for a successful offensive. [Operationally, the UA cannot keep its forces ready to go on the offensive indefinitely.]
==
US intelligence confirms that one South African ship with shells was sent directly to Russia. S.A. President said they have launched an investigation ...
==
Denys said that when the offensive is about to happen there will be lots of surveillance aircraft over and around the Black Sea and the Polish border.
==
Estonia:
Polish surveillance aircraft are flying circles in Estonian airspace along with one C-130. Maybe part of some air show in Estonia.
Yevgeny Prigozhin turned to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu with a request to come to Bakhmut. The appeal was sent against the backdrop of a difficult operational situation on the flanks of the Bakhmut direction.
==
Ukrainian Armed Forces are carefully preparing for the start of a large-scale offensive, striking Russian weapons depots and command centers - CNN
The Ukrainian army has begun “shaping” operations ahead of a long-awaited counter-offensive against the Russian army, a senior U.S. military official and a senior Western official told CNN.
“Formation includes striking targets such as armories, command centers, armored and artillery systems to prepare the battlefield for advancing forces. This is a standard tactic developed before major combined operations,” U.S. military and political sources familiar with the situation at the front told.
When Ukraine launched a counter-offensive at the end of last summer in the southern and northeastern parts of the country, it was also preceded by strikes that determined the outcome of the battle. These formative operations could continue for many days before the main part of any planned Ukrainian offensive, according to a senior US military official.
==
British intelligence said that in April the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation recruited about 10 thousand prisoners
Since the summer of 2022, prisoners have been the main source for the war in Ukraine “PMC Wagner”. However, the “Wagnerites” probably lost access to the penitentiary system in February of this year against the backdrop of Prigozhin’s conflict with the Russian Defense Ministry. Now the regular Russian army uses prisoners for their needs.
“Debris from a ADM-160B MALD (Miniature Air-Launched Decoy) in Luhansk after the recent strike.”
https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1657066925002838016
It's happening! Ukraine's President Zelensky has met with executives from BlackRock to auction off Ukraine for profit. He solicited this in a recent speech and now it is happening. In case you were wondering who would be enriched by this war: big business. Not you.