Ukraine: military situation update with maps - April 12, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> Daily Battle Maps by Date and Region, Showing Troop Dispositions and Movements: <——
https://deepstatemap.live/
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-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
The Russian military, the second largest military in the world, may not be what it looks like. Lies and systematic corruptions may in fact have dragged Russia into this war with Ukraine, which has been heavily backed up by the US and NATO. We will present the evidence, you make your own decision, because the Russian Army, is not what you think.
==
-—> Understanding Combined Arms Warfare <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZOGdKANL5s
Designed to support the U.S. Army Captains Career Course, “Understanding Combined Arms Warfare” defines and outlines the important aspects of modern combined arms operations. This is not a complete history of combined arms warfare. It is intended to highlight the most important aspects of the subject.
The beginning of the documentary establishes a common understanding of combined arms warfare by discussing doctrinal and equipment developments in World War I. The second part compares the development of French and German Army mechanization during the interwar period and describes how each country fared during the Battle of France in 1940. The film concludes by showing how the United States applied combined arms operations in the European Theater in World War II.
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-—> Combined Arms Breach, 1990 <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-sCT_maAQ
What UA will have to master to smash Orc Lines. This visualization was developed for the Maneuver Center of Excellence and is closely based upon the National Training Center Breach and Assault exercise executed circa 1990. This visualization demonstrates viable Techniques, and Procedures as discussed in Army Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures March 3, 1990 for the conduct of the combined arms breach against a hypothetical enemy.
-—> How Many of Each Type of Tank Does Russia Have In Storage? <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PHUK6zkbpc
Type Good 2023
T-54/55 270
T-62 560
T-64 248
T-72 1841
T-80 942
T-90 50
~3,911 operational tanks in storage as of ~04/07/2023 | Ball park tank number.
Extras:
-—> The Ironic Saga Of Ukraine’s Newly Donated MiG-29 Fulcrums <——
The MiG-29s with very colorful pasts being sent to reinforce Ukraine will ironically end up fighting Russia with the backing of NATO.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/the-ironic-saga-of-ukraines-newly-donated-mig-29-fulcrums
==
-—> Ukraine Situation Report: Russia Building Up Zaporizhzhia Fortifications <——
The fortifications will provide a significant obstacle to Ukrainian forces if Russia can man them, the U.K. Defense Ministry says.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-russia-building-up-zaporizhzhia-fortifications
Excerpts:
“Russia has continued to develop extensive linear defense in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in southern Ukraine” ahead of a looming Ukrainian counteroffensive likely targeting that region, the U.K. Defense Ministry said in a tweet Wednesday. “The area is highly likely the responsibility of the Southern Grouping of Forces (SFG).”
Russia “has now completed three layers of defensive zones across approximately 120km (about 75 miles) of this sector. These consist of a front line of forward combat positions and then two zones of nearly continuous, more elaborate defenses. Each zone is approximately 10-20km (about 6 to 12 miles) behind the one in front.”
As with questions about whether the Russians can man and support these defenses, it also remains to be seen whether enough of the equipment promised to Ukraine arrives on time and in enough quantity to make a major difference in the counter-offensive.
==
Bakhmut is also where Ukraine saw the end of one of its more well-known captured tanks. Dubbed “Bunny,” the T-80BVM tank was captured by Ukrainian forces in March, 2022 and featured at the time in a report by CNN that made it famous. But Bunny was recently damaged by Russian 240mm mortar fire in Bakhmut and set on fire by its crew to prevent its recapture.
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South Korea has reached an agreement to lend the United States 500,000 rounds of 155mm artillery shells in a deal that could allow the U.S. to provide more ammunition to Ukraine, Reuters reported Wednesday, citing a South Korean newspaper.
The DongA Ilbo newspaper cited unidentified government sources as saying South Korea decided to “lend” the ammunition instead of selling, to minimize the possibility of South Korean shells being used in the Ukraine conflict.
Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
[ Russians Did Not Get Secure Positions | Get Annihilated Immediately | Special Ops Caught & Destroyed | They Made A Grave Mistake]
••Day 413: April 12
Today there are a lot of updates from the East.
Here, after gathering all their forces in Bakhmut, Russian forces suddenly tripled the number of attacks per day in order to fix and overwhelm Ukrainian forces, which allowed them to generate a local breakthrough.
However, Russians overestimated their ability to hold the newly gained bridgehead, and because such an intense fire could not be maintained for long, Ukrainians waited several hours, destroyed isolated Russian special operators, and took back what they lost.
Last time I told you that Wagner forces gradually relocated all of their formations from the flanks to the city in order to generate sufficient combat capability to breach the last remaining but the strongest Ukrainian defense lines. I also told you that Ukrainians made a successful counterattack in the south, which allowed them to improve supplies to the zero line.
The freshest reports suggest that Ukrainians are controlling more ground. Recent combat footage released by the Ukrainian side revealed that Russians still have not established control over the stadium Avangard. The footage shows how several Russians manage to enter the building despite Ukrainian fire, however, later that day, Ukrainians destroyed that building together with the Russians either by a strike or by detonating the planted mines.
The latest Russian reports also suggest that Ukrainians are still holding the high-rise building across Kovalska street, which suggests that Ukrainians are preventing Russians from moving freely on the territory of the school. The school yard would be a perfect place for getting their armored vehicles close to the contact line, so maintaining positions in the residential complex allows Ukrainians to be tactically at par.
Slightly to the west, the Ukrainian 1st Border Detachment repelled another wave of assaults. Today one of the soldiers reported that after yesterday’s failure, Wagner forces increased the size of the assault unit and sent a platoon instead of squads. Nonetheless, Ukrainians repelled the attack and liquidated at least 19 troops in one session.
In the central part of the region, Russians still haven’t got close to the railways because Ukrainians established a powerful strongpoint in the main train station. As you can see, the station is surrounded by a park, where Ukrainians dug trenches and fortified them with various objects. Recent footage also shows how Ukrainians cross the street in front of the park and establish positions in one of the high-rise buildings on this street.
In the upper center, there were a lot of unexpected changes. Here, Russian forces conducted a very rapid attack: they suppressed Ukrainian fire in the whole region with intense shelling and gun fire, quickly crossed the railways, and started breaching buildings. Ukrainians missed the moment to prevent them from crossing the rails and had to retreat to escape potential encirclement.
Some soldiers claimed the operation was conducted by the newly arrived Russian special operators because they received unusually extensive support for the mission. However, the Russian bridgehead turned out to be too weak in isolation, Ukrainians cut off all the support to the elevator and, by the end of the day, conducted a counterattack, rapidly closed the distance, and recaptured the whole area.
In the northern part of the region, it looks like Russians recaptured the street that they previously lost. There was a lot of back and forth in this region, but the recently released combat footage shows how Russians are shelling Ukrainian positions in the houses south of Rose Alley. Preventing Russians from crossing the alley is essential not only for the stability of the defense line along the railways but also for the stability of supplies via the Khromove highway.
The residential buildings along the outer edge of the city allow Ukrainians to exert significant fire control over the fields and the forest, which is why, for now, Russians gave up on the idea of capturing the village of Khromove.
When it comes to the flanks, the activity here has slowly increased. As you remember, a sudden snowfall that started on 31 March caught everyone by surprise and made infantry attacks impossible. During the first days of April, the snow started to gradually go away, and the clashes started to take place on the highlands.
In contrast, in the lowlands, the conditions became even worse because this is where all the thawed snow accumulates - the trenches turned to swimming pools, while the fields turned to mud. By the end of the first week of April, the pools started to dry up, and Russians started preparing for the assaults by launching artillery preparation and shelling Ukrainian positions in the fields.
Ukrainians responded reciprocally and started targeting Russian shelters in the proximate positions. When it comes to the Khromove region, the only thing that separates Ukrainian and Russian positions is a tree line, and as you can see, sometimes Ukrainians engage tanks to shell Russians if they become too aggressive.
However, for the most part, Ukrainians are holding off Russian infantry with machine gun fire and also artillery and drone support.
Overall, Ukrainians established a lot of lines of fortifications to secure the flanks of the Bakhmut group, and these fortifications work synergistically to protect each other’s corners.
In the city itself, Wagner forces are trying to overwhelm Ukrainians with constant waves of attacks because today, Ukrainians have repelled 72 ground attacks - recently, this number was around 25 per day. But despite such a high intensity of the fighting, there were no confirmed Russian advances in the last two days.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPpYQuLW8T0
Denys says:
[ Fight Back | Ukraine Pushed Wagners Back in Bakhmut | Russia Got Stuck Again ]
••Bakhmut:
Heavy Russian losses again. Gains by Russians lost quickly lost.
Defending the western side of the city is easier than eastern side because it is higher ground.
==
Counter Attack:
According to Washington Post, it has been postponed by Ukrainians. And maybe will not happen in the Spring in their opinion based on the leaked documents. The Ukrainian Prime Minister, while in Canada, said the counterattack is planned for the summer time. Denys still thinks it will happen in May or late April.
The Russians have completed 3 layers of defense lines, each zone is 10 km behind the other, around the Melitopol area stretching 120 km. These defenses depend on having sufficient artillery and troops - about which it is unclear if they exist.
Taking Melitopol will split the Russian army and create supply chaos.
Also from WAPO, comes a headline doubting any counterattack will yield big gains, again an opinion based on the leaked documents. Claim is that the UA is out of trained troops and lacks sufficient S-300 rockets. Denys spoke with a best friend in the Air Defense and was told there is no problem with rocket supplies. Many trained troops are just returning from training bases all over Europe and the US.
Denys thinks because of all the obvious misinformation, the documents were for Russian consumption: just relax, Ukraine is not doing a counterattack any time soon, and even the US doubts the success of such an endeavor. Denys is of the opinion that this is good because what Russian General are good at is doing nothing or doing everything wrong.
CNN follows the WAPO with doubts about a quick end to the war. Denys agrees because as long a Putin is in power the war will continue.
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There are reports that Russia is moving forces out of the Enerhodar nuclear plant to the south. It could be just a routine rotation, but the city is being evacuated , perhaps in a gesture of goodwill.
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William Burns, Dir CIA, says Putin still believes he can demolish Ukraine. Also, the future counterattack is very important because it will form the basis of peace talks. Denys say thinks way to have peace talks is to return Ukrainian territory. For any occupied territory to remain in Russian hands, only creates future problems for Ukraine; Russia will use that territory as a launching pad for a future attack.
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Spanish Leopards: they will be delivered by sea in a couple of weeks, through Romania overland to Ukraine. About 20 tanks.
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Russia raises taxes: special military tax of 3% imposed upon everyone.
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US will introduce sanctions on Hungary’s Orban and friends for supporting Russia. Denys says this is long overdue.
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New satellite photos show the Russian are installing better build zig zag trenches in the south, but the land is flat with no trees and easily defeated by artillery. Plus, the Russian are installing artillery along the beach trenches to repel any non-exist UA Marines and make believe landing craft.
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France is blocking any European artillery shells and missiles to Ukraine.
