Rob Lee, recently spent 2 weeks in Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1637880591898095618
“Thread on Bakhmut. Before talking about the tactical situation, it is important to put it in the strategic context. Ukraine conducted successful offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson after heavy Russian military attrition during the Battle of the Donbas left its lines vulnerable.
Russia’s successful withdrawal from the right bank of Kherson and mobilization helped stabilize the lines and stopped Ukraine’s advance to Kreminna. In order to make further serious gains, Ukraine went on the defense to buy time to form new units/train on NATO equipment.
The battle in Bakhmut began more than 6 months ago, but became a focus over the winter as both sides redeployed forces to Bakhmut from Kherson. Bakhmut thereby acquired a degree of political significance on both sides.
Russia began its winter offensive in late January. Russian forces have attempted to advance in several parts of the front while making minimal gains. In some areas like Vuhledar, Russian forces have suffered far heavier losses than Ukrainian forces.
Russia has also sustained heavy losses in Bakhmut, but the ratio of losses shifted as Russia took the flanks (which sit on high ground), beginning with the southern flank in January and the northern flank in mid/late-February including Yahidne on the 25th.
Although the center of Bakhmut has strong buildings and factories, the flanks are composed of houses without basements. Once they’re targeted, they’re no longer useful as fighting positions. Russian advances on the flanks put the main resupply routes within direct-fire range.
Newly mobilized soldiers are being sent to Bakhmut as combat replacements and the units don’t have enough time to train them properly. There is a trade-off between sending mobilized soldiers to the front or to new units preparing for the spring offensive.
Although there was a 3-week period in which Russian artillery fire was reduced, it increased at the end of February as the 106th Airborne Division played a greater role, which coincided with greater Wagner-VDV cooperation. Russia has a substantial artillery advantage in Bakhmut.
Wagner commanders are given greater discretion and flexibility to fight as they see fit and to find/exploit weak points (TDF units are often deliberately targeted). Some Wagner units operate at night while others only during the day. Wagner convicts are not allowed to retreat.
Bakhmut matters to Russia because its stated goal is to seize all of the Donbas, but Russian forces are struggling to advance towards Kramatorsk-Slovyansk from the other directions. It has also been key to Ukraine’s defense of the rest of the Donbas.
Ukraine is prioritizing forming and training new units in three army corps for its spring offensive while trying to hold the entirety of the front line. But those are competing priorities, and Ukraine is deliberately holding back reserves.
This may give the impression that Ukraine is losing, but, in reality, Ukraine is not committing all of its resources to the front. Ukraine has a better chance of achieving another significant breakthrough this spring than Russia does during its current offensive.
Russia is dependent on a small number of elite units for their assaults (e.g. naval infantry, VDV, Wagner professionals), but they can grind their way to slow, costly victories by employing greater forces and artillery. An attritional fight is not in Ukraine’s interests.
Until its offensive, Ukraine’s best strategy is to pick battles where it can achieve a favorable ratio of attrition and expend fewer munitions, which could weaken Russian forces’ ability to defend without significantly sapping Ukraine’s offensive potential in the coming months.
Although the attrition ratio in Bakhmut has been advantageous for the duration of the battle, the ratio is much less favorable now with Ru forces holding high ground on the city’s flanks. Much of Russia’s losses are prisoners of less military value than Ukrainian soldiers.
In contrast, in Vuhledar, the share of Russian casualties from elite units is higher than in Bakhmut, and it isn’t clear if Wagner’s use of convicts would be as effective in a less urban setting.
The upcoming Ukrainian offensive will be strategically critical and potentially decisive. Western aid, including ammunition, will likely peak this spring and summer, and it will take years before increases in artillery production capacity can be achieved.
Ukraine will not have air superiority, will face stronger Russian defenses than it did in Kharkiv, and will likely only be able to achieve localized superiority in artillery fire and forces. To gives its offensive the best chance for success, Kyiv needs to husband its resources.
There is no risk-free option for Ukraine. Retrograde operations are dangerous, withdrawing from Bakhmut could lead to more pressure on Siversk or elsewhere, and there is no guarantee Ukraine would be able to retake the city later if it withdraws.
But there is a risk that, by committing the necessary forces to continue holding Bakhmut (where its attrition ratio isn’t favorable), Ukraine will sap some of the forces available for its strategically more important spring offensive.
Another risk is that Russian forces will continue to press to the west to try to seize high ground north of Chasiv Yar, which is defensible terrain for holding Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. Encirclement is also a risk.
Encircling Bakhmut is Russia’s best opportunity to inflict a serious defeat on Ukraine. The VDV’s 106th Airborne Division has taken on a greater role, and the Russian MoD will likely prioritize cutting off the remaining MRSs by committing more resources.
The mud season has now begun, which could complicate a withdrawal or reinforcement, particularly if Russian forces advance closer to the O0506 hardball road. This could limit the use of wheeled vehicles.
As in Mariupol and countless other battles, Ukrainian forces have defended bravely and inflicted heavy losses on Russian forces in Bakhmut, which will likely aid Ukraine’s spring offensive. But the conditions have worsened over the past month.
What should Ukraine do? I don’t know. It isn’t a black and white issue and there is uncertainty. Russia may overextend itself trying to take the city and leave itself vulnerable to counterattack. It is ultimately a question of where Ukraine chooses to assume risk.
Just as the strategic consequences of Russia’s offensive in the Donbas in the spring and summer wasn’t fully clear until after Ukraine’s offensives in the fall, it probably won’t be clear whether the continued defense of Bakhmut was the right move until after Ukraine’s offensive.”
Ukraine: military situation update with maps - Mar 20, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
-—> Combined Arms Breach, what UA will have to master to smash Orc Lines <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-sCT_maAQ
———————————————————————————————————————
Extra:
-—> Ukraine Situation Report: Explosions Rock Russian Occupied Crimea <——
Ukrainian and Russian media outlets and Telegram channels reported an attack while Kyiv claims Kalibr missiles were destroyed.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-explosions-rock-russian-occupied-crimea
Excerpts:
The explosions on Monday - about 90 miles from the front lines - continued “the process of Russia’s demilitarization and prepares the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea for deoccupation,” the GUR reported, without saying exactly what caused the explosions. We reached out to the GUR and will update this story with any information provided.
Ukrainian formations are conducting another raid on the Crimean peninsula,” the Russian Rybar Telegram channel reported. “At the moment, air defense units of the RF Armed Forces are repelling an attack by drones over Dzhankoy.”
“With a high degree of probability, the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to strike at a military airfield,” Rybar added. “Given the tactics of extreme attacks, one should expect the appearance of handicraft-equipped UAVs in other regions of Crimea.”
While much about this incident is still unknown beyond the extent of damage, including what kind of drones and how many were used, this is the latest in a series of Ukrainian attempts to attack the airbase there as well as other locations in Crimea.
==
The Pentagon declined to tell The War Zone which kind of Riverine boats will be provided. [See here for previous Riverine boats supplied to Ukraine: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/these-are-the-riverine-patrol-boats-ukraine-is-getting-from-the-u-s ]
==
After two of his pilots returned from a trip to the U.S. where they got a chance to fly F-16 simulators, the commander of the Ukrainian Air Force said they can learn to fly western fighters like the Viper far quicker than suggested by the U.S. and NATO allies.
“They spent three weeks there and were trained on an F-16 simulator how to fly together as two pilots using weapons,” Ukrainian Gen. Serhii Holubtsov told the Times of London in an exclusive interview. “The results came out very good: Ukrainian pilots can learn to fly and operate weapons systems on the F-16 in less than six months,” he told the publication.
“I am losing some of my best people because of the lack of proper equipment,” he said. “The sooner we have all the help we need, the sooner we win this war, the more lives we save.”
==
Sen. Mark Kelly, a former Navy combat pilot (and NASA astronaut) to the list of those who think the March 14 downing of a U.S. Air Force MQ-9 Reaper drone by a Russian Su-27 Flanker jet was the result of that pilot’s incompetence.
“I’m not surprised by this. I mean, I flew with Russian pilots, fighter pilots who couldn’t fly formation. And I watched this video, and it’s pretty obvious what happened. He lost sight of it, and he crashed into it,” Kelly told CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union” Sunday.
———————————————————————————————————————
Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Via Telegram: He was wounded in the leg and was evacuated from the front.
••Day 390: March 20
The freshest reports suggest that Russians immediately started moving in multiple directions at once, namely towards Novokalynove and Berdychi. In order to maintain the momentum of advancement and expand their bridgehead as fast as possible, Russian forces deployed a lot of tanks and armored vehicles to facilitate further movement of their infantry.
Simultaneously, after retreating from Krasnohorivka, Ukrainian forces urgently engaged additional units to stabilize the front line. The extensive use of tanks by Russians has been noted already during the battles east of Krasnohorivka, so Ukrainians have deployed more mobile irregular formations to mitigate this problem.
One of the irregular units operating in the Donetsk direction is a unit of special operators, White Wolves. Two days before Russians launched another wave of assaults, White Wolves released a video showing how they destroyed 10 Russian tanks during the night in order to undermine the ability of Russians to penetrate Ukrainian defenses.
As a result, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Russian attack on Novokalynove was repelled. If we look at the topographic map, we can see that Russians control two important hills north of Krasnohorivka, while Ukrainians are located in the lowlands, so Russians have a tactical advantage in this regard. However, because of the scattered farmland facilities, small lakes, and ravines, breaking through Ukrainian defenses here proved to be too difficult.
Russian forces also increased the intensity of their attacks to the south of Avdiivka. Here, Russian forces have been struggling for a long time to breach the Ukrainian defense in front of Vodiane. Geolocated footage shows that recently Russian tanks tried to move around and assault Ukrainians from the flanks. Ukrainian 35th Marine Brigade timely spotted the attackers and destroyed several Russian tanks and armored vehicles.
Ukrainian 53rd Mechanized Brigaded also reported about Russian advances to the south of Avdiivka, more specifically from Opytne. This time Russian forces were more successful, and despite the best Ukrainian efforts, managed to breach Ukrainian defenses and got closer to the city itself.
However, it seems like the engagement of so much armor in the south was just to immobilize Ukrainian troops before their main attack. After Russian forces in the south successfully drew Ukrainian attention to this region and in some places like Opytne managed to entangle Ukrainians in positional fights, Russian forces in Krasnohorivka made another push and achieved the most significant results in the most unexpected area.
Today it was reported that Russian forces conducted a heavy mechanized assault on Stepove. Some sources reported that Russians managed to cross the railways and establish partial control over the village. Right now, Ukrainians are urgently relocating troops to Berdychi. Some Russian sources have already confirmed that one Ukrainian tank unit has already arrived in Stepove to push Russians out.
If we look at the topographic map, we can see that Ukrainians are controlling an artificial hill, which should give them a lot of control over the surrounding area. The fact that Russians have to maintain positions on the other side of the railway embankment complicates the situation for Russians even more and makes it extremely unstable. This means that Russians will either shortly make an even bigger mechanized assault with the goal of taking not only Stepove but also Berdychi, or they will be completely destroyed.
Overall, substantial reinforcements of the Russian forces in the Adviivka direction allowed Russians to open multiple lines of attack along the whole front line, fix Ukrainian troops in low-priority directions and generate a breakthrough to the north of Avdiivka. So far, Ukrainians seem to be doing everything they can - they mine the areas of advance, and they engage a lot of drones, artillery, and aviation.
The number of tanks and armored vehicles engaged over the last week reminds us of what we saw in Vuhledar. Russians are trying to encircle Avdiivka as fast as possible, so if Ukrainians manage to slow them down enough, then Russians may once again run out of armor and troops before they secure crucial gains.
Some claim that the China-made drone Mugin-5 Pro 5000mm Carbon Fiber UAV was used in the attack. Its range would take it close to Moscow and has room to be upgraded with more fuel, but engine could be swapped out for a more powerful one.
Ukraine is building its own Shahid-like drone to carry 100kg payload but lacks resources to do it large scale.
==
Leopard 2A4 tanks delivery will be even more than promised by allies - Denys got this info from his buddies at Antonov and other airlines.
==
Germany delivers 14 Marder IFVs - continuously upgraded since introduction in 1970s. Being phased out in German service.
==
Xi-Puttin Meeting:
China is building its economy on the cheap resources from Russia: oil, gas, gold, etc.
Xi Panda looks directly at Putin’s eyes, sits upright, relaxed. Putin looks mostly at the ground, looks uncomfortable, slouches in his chair. A pity to watch Putin’s face.
Putin insulted the Panda by sending Minister of Tourism to greet him at the airport. But the Panda will likely push Putin to withdraw his army from Ukraine because that is in China’s best interests.
Chinese stock market declined a few percent with the meeting. A sign that the Panda is not doing a great job with the aspect of Putin’s war crimes.
==
Bakhmut:
Minor changes. PMC troops exhausted. PMC needs RGF support. UA supply lines still working. PMC says UA is only using minor forces to hold the city, saving the majority for the spring counterattack. All counterattack info comes from PMC and Russian mil-bloggers. Russian MoD is calm and does not care.
==
Adiviika:
Most of the forces south of the city are militias from Donetsk area. Russian forces are exhausted. All of the men from the region have been conscripted from nearby towns and villages and they are also exhausted.
==
Counterattack?
Polohy 10km incursion by the UA determined the positions and dispositions of RGF troops and could serve as the point of a counterattack towards Berdansk a main Russian entry port.
But with rapid-deploying, Western bridging equipment, it is possible that the attack could cross the Dniepr River in the area of Nova Kakhovka. [Which makes more sense than the drive to Berdansk or Mariupol which would create a two front battle.]
This is where the Western Riverine boats would play a large part in getting troops across the Dniepr rapidly. [An attack here is closer to the goal of taking the Crimea than the other scenario, plus gives full control over the Crimean water supply. I’m going with this bet on the actual counter attack.]
Denys thinks there will be two secondary attacks: one in Bakhmut and the other in Adiviika.
PMC and mil-bloggers are saying the UA may encircle Belgorod and use it to trade for another city or area.
I know you must get tired eating the same old left over laughable Western disinfo. For your dining pleasure, here’s some Brand X disinfo.
MOSCOW, March 21. /TASS/. Russian forces destroyed three US-made counter-battery radars of the Ukrainian army over the past day during the special military operation in Ukraine, Defense Ministry Spokesman Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov reported on Tuesday.
“Three US-manufactured AN/TPQ-37 counter-battery radars were obliterated in areas near the settlements of Shandrigolovo in the Donetsk People’s Republic, Orekhov in the Zaporozhye Region and Belozyorka in the Kherson Region,” the spokesman said.
In the past 24 hours, operational/tactical and army aviation aircraft, missile troops and artillery of the Russian group of forces struck 95 Ukrainian artillery units at firing positions, manpower and equipment in 107 areas, the general specified.
Battles in Kupyansk direction
Russian forces struck Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kupyansk area, eliminating 80 enemy troops over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
“In the Kupyansk direction, units and artillery of the western battlegroup struck the enemy manpower and equipment in areas near the settlements of Dvurechnaya and Timkovka in the Kharkov Region, Novosyolovskoye and Stelmakhovka in the Lugansk People’s Republic in their active operations,” the spokesman said.
Russian forces eliminated as many as 80 Ukrainian personnel, three armored combat vehicles and a D-20 howitzer in that area in the past 24 hours, the general specified.
Battles in Krasny Liman direction
Russian artillery and heavy flamethrower systems struck Ukrainian army units in the Krasny Liman area, eliminating roughly 95 enemy troops over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
“In the Krasny Liman direction, artillery and heavy flamethrower systems of the battlegroup Center struck the Ukrainian army units near the settlements of Nevskoye in the Lugansk People’s Republic, Yampolovka and Grigorovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic,” the spokesman said.
The strikes eliminated as many as 95 Ukrainian personnel, two armored combat vehicles, and also D-20 and D-30 howitzers, the general specified.
Battles in Donetsk direction
Russian forces destroyed roughly 160 Ukrainian troops in their advance in the Donetsk area over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
“In the Donetsk direction, as many as 160 Ukrainian personnel, three armored combat vehicles, four motor vehicles and a D-20 howitzer were destroyed as a result of active operations by units of the southern battlegroup, air strikes and artillery fire,” the spokesman said.
Battles in southern Donetsk, Zaporozhye directions
Russian forces destroyed about 30 Ukrainian troops in the southern Donetsk and Zaporozhye areas over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
In the southern Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions, operational/tactical and army aviation aircraft and artillery of the battlegroup East inflicted damage on the Ukrainian army units in areas near the settlements of Ugledar and Novomikhailovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic and Preobrazhenka in the Zaporozhye Region, the spokesman specified.
“The enemy’s losses amounted to over 30 Ukrainian personnel, two pickup trucks and also a D-30 howitzer,” the general said.
Battles in Kherson direction
Russian forces destroyed over 40 Ukrainian troops, two Akatsiya self-propelled howitzers and a US-made M777 artillery gun in the Kherson area in the past day, Konashenkov reported.
“In the Kherson direction, over 40 Ukrainian personnel, three motor vehicles, two Akatsiya self-propelled howitzers, and also a US-manufactured M777 artillery system were destroyed as a result of damage inflicted on the enemy by firepower,” the spokesman said.
Russia’s Aerospace Forces down Ukrainian Su-25 attack plane
Russian combat aircraft shot down a Ukrainian Su-25 ground attack plane in an aerial battle in the Donetsk People’s Republic over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
“Fighter aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces shot down a Ukrainian Air Force Su-25 plane near the community of Nikanorovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic,” the spokesman said.
Russian air defenses intercept three US-made HIMARS rockets
Russian air defense forces destroyed 31 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles and intercepted three rockets of the US-made HIMARS multiple launch rocket system over the past day, Konashenkov reported.
“In the past 24 hours, air defense capabilities destroyed 31 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in areas near the settlements of Tokarevka in the Kharkov Region, Krasnorechenskoye, Chervonopopovka, Novovodyanoye, Kremennaya, Ploshchanka, Voyevodovka, Rubezhnoye and Baranikovka in the Lugansk People’s Republic, Zelyony Gai, Urozhainoye, Blagodatnoye, Vladimirovka, Yevgenovka and Staromlinovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic, Ulyanovka and Pologi in the Zaporozhye Region, Novaya Zburyevka and Krynki in the Kherson Region,” the spokesman said.
In addition, Russian air defense systems “intercepted three rockets of the HIMARS multiple launch rocket system,” the general said.
Russian forces destroy over 3,500 military drones in Ukraine operation
Russian forces have destroyed over 3,500 Ukrainian combat drones since the start of the special military operation in Ukraine, Konashenkov reported.
“In all, the following targets have been destroyed since the beginning of the special military operation: 403 aircraft, 223 helicopters, 3,502 unmanned aerial vehicles, 414 surface-to-air missile systems, 8,363 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,070 multiple rocket launchers, 4,403 field artillery guns and mortars and 9,039 special military motor vehicles,” the general specified.
TAGS
Military operation in Ukraine
Yet, Eukraine is still loosing.
This looks real.
Russian 5th Grader Extinguishes Russia’s Eternal Flame
https://crooksandliars.com/2023/03/russian-5th-grader-extinguishes-russias
Bakhmut is encircled. All roads in and out of it are under Russian artillery fire.
###
Meanwhile other encirclement has taken place in Avdiivka
Avdiivka is strongly fortified. Its coke plant is a strong-point. The Ukrainian army used the city to lob artillery into Donetsk city. But attempts to seize it were largely unsuccessful. Two week ago the situation suddenly changed. The Russian airforce started to bomb Avdiivka with heavy glide bombs. At the same time an operations was launched to envelope the city from two directions.
An east to west move north of Avdiivka cut the rail access to the city. Russian forces crossed the railroad and moved further west. Fighting is currently ongoing in Berdychi. South of Berdychi is Orlovka, a road crossing point (O0542, C015801, C015802) that is for now the only real supply route left for Avdiivka.
In the southwest of Avdiivka the Russian forces moved northward. They are currently trying to capture Siverne. The first progress there was stopped when on March 12 the Ukrainian 36th Marine Brigade was placed in the area.
Armed reconnaissance has also taken place into the southwest area of Avdiivka city which is made up of high rises.
The distance between the Russian positions in the southwest and in the northwest of Avdiivka is 8 kilometer (5 miles). That is sufficiently narrow for Russian artillery to interdict road traffic that goes through the area in between.
The landscape around Avdiivka is mostly featureless. There are a few slag hills that rise about 50 meter above their surrounding flatland. But they can be easily covered by artillery and are thus not really helpful for either side.
This is now the second Ukrainian held area on the Donetsk front that is in operational encirclement. In both areas the Russian follow Sun Tzu's advice to not completely close off an encirclement but to leave a route out. This prevents fanatical defenses by encircled troops or it may even lead the enemy to push more forces into a hopeless position.
If the Ukrainian military had plans to relieve Bakhmut with a counterattack it now has to think of the additional problem that the encirclement of Avdiivka brings. Should it start there? Should it split the forces it had accumulated and planned to use for the counterattack in Bakhmut and start a parallel one in Avdiivka? Should it give up on one or both cities? Those are difficult decisions.
I find it likely that the Russian attacks on Bakhmut were halted after the Avdiivka development succeeded to give the Ukraine military enough time to make an error.
@visegrad24 11h
Today, U.S. established its first permanent military garrison in one of the countries that used to be behind the Iron Curtain.
Camp Kosciuszko was inaugurated in Poznan, as the Area Support Group Poland (ASG-P) was transformed into the Army Garrison Poland (USAG-P).
Russia now sending T-54s to fight in Ukraine. Too funny.