Ukraine: military situation update with maps - Mar 20, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
-—> Combined Arms Breach, what UA will have to master to smash Orc Lines <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-sCT_maAQ
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Extra:
-—> Ukraine Situation Report: Explosions Rock Russian Occupied Crimea <——
Ukrainian and Russian media outlets and Telegram channels reported an attack while Kyiv claims Kalibr missiles were destroyed.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-explosions-rock-russian-occupied-crimea
Excerpts:
The explosions on Monday - about 90 miles from the front lines - continued “the process of Russia’s demilitarization and prepares the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea for deoccupation,” the GUR reported, without saying exactly what caused the explosions. We reached out to the GUR and will update this story with any information provided.
Ukrainian formations are conducting another raid on the Crimean peninsula,” the Russian Rybar Telegram channel reported. “At the moment, air defense units of the RF Armed Forces are repelling an attack by drones over Dzhankoy.”
“With a high degree of probability, the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to strike at a military airfield,” Rybar added. “Given the tactics of extreme attacks, one should expect the appearance of handicraft-equipped UAVs in other regions of Crimea.”
While much about this incident is still unknown beyond the extent of damage, including what kind of drones and how many were used, this is the latest in a series of Ukrainian attempts to attack the airbase there as well as other locations in Crimea.
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The Pentagon declined to tell The War Zone which kind of Riverine boats will be provided. [See here for previous Riverine boats supplied to Ukraine: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/these-are-the-riverine-patrol-boats-ukraine-is-getting-from-the-u-s ]
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After two of his pilots returned from a trip to the U.S. where they got a chance to fly F-16 simulators, the commander of the Ukrainian Air Force said they can learn to fly western fighters like the Viper far quicker than suggested by the U.S. and NATO allies.
“They spent three weeks there and were trained on an F-16 simulator how to fly together as two pilots using weapons,” Ukrainian Gen. Serhii Holubtsov told the Times of London in an exclusive interview. “The results came out very good: Ukrainian pilots can learn to fly and operate weapons systems on the F-16 in less than six months,” he told the publication.
“I am losing some of my best people because of the lack of proper equipment,” he said. “The sooner we have all the help we need, the sooner we win this war, the more lives we save.”
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Sen. Mark Kelly, a former Navy combat pilot (and NASA astronaut) to the list of those who think the March 14 downing of a U.S. Air Force MQ-9 Reaper drone by a Russian Su-27 Flanker jet was the result of that pilot’s incompetence.
“I’m not surprised by this. I mean, I flew with Russian pilots, fighter pilots who couldn’t fly formation. And I watched this video, and it’s pretty obvious what happened. He lost sight of it, and he crashed into it,” Kelly told CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union” Sunday.
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Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Via Telegram: He was wounded in the leg and was evacuated from the front.
••Day 390: March 20
The freshest reports suggest that Russians immediately started moving in multiple directions at once, namely towards Novokalynove and Berdychi. In order to maintain the momentum of advancement and expand their bridgehead as fast as possible, Russian forces deployed a lot of tanks and armored vehicles to facilitate further movement of their infantry.
Simultaneously, after retreating from Krasnohorivka, Ukrainian forces urgently engaged additional units to stabilize the front line. The extensive use of tanks by Russians has been noted already during the battles east of Krasnohorivka, so Ukrainians have deployed more mobile irregular formations to mitigate this problem.
One of the irregular units operating in the Donetsk direction is a unit of special operators, White Wolves. Two days before Russians launched another wave of assaults, White Wolves released a video showing how they destroyed 10 Russian tanks during the night in order to undermine the ability of Russians to penetrate Ukrainian defenses.
As a result, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Russian attack on Novokalynove was repelled. If we look at the topographic map, we can see that Russians control two important hills north of Krasnohorivka, while Ukrainians are located in the lowlands, so Russians have a tactical advantage in this regard. However, because of the scattered farmland facilities, small lakes, and ravines, breaking through Ukrainian defenses here proved to be too difficult.
Russian forces also increased the intensity of their attacks to the south of Avdiivka. Here, Russian forces have been struggling for a long time to breach the Ukrainian defense in front of Vodiane. Geolocated footage shows that recently Russian tanks tried to move around and assault Ukrainians from the flanks. Ukrainian 35th Marine Brigade timely spotted the attackers and destroyed several Russian tanks and armored vehicles.
Ukrainian 53rd Mechanized Brigaded also reported about Russian advances to the south of Avdiivka, more specifically from Opytne. This time Russian forces were more successful, and despite the best Ukrainian efforts, managed to breach Ukrainian defenses and got closer to the city itself.
However, it seems like the engagement of so much armor in the south was just to immobilize Ukrainian troops before their main attack. After Russian forces in the south successfully drew Ukrainian attention to this region and in some places like Opytne managed to entangle Ukrainians in positional fights, Russian forces in Krasnohorivka made another push and achieved the most significant results in the most unexpected area.
Today it was reported that Russian forces conducted a heavy mechanized assault on Stepove. Some sources reported that Russians managed to cross the railways and establish partial control over the village. Right now, Ukrainians are urgently relocating troops to Berdychi. Some Russian sources have already confirmed that one Ukrainian tank unit has already arrived in Stepove to push Russians out.
If we look at the topographic map, we can see that Ukrainians are controlling an artificial hill, which should give them a lot of control over the surrounding area. The fact that Russians have to maintain positions on the other side of the railway embankment complicates the situation for Russians even more and makes it extremely unstable. This means that Russians will either shortly make an even bigger mechanized assault with the goal of taking not only Stepove but also Berdychi, or they will be completely destroyed.
Overall, substantial reinforcements of the Russian forces in the Adviivka direction allowed Russians to open multiple lines of attack along the whole front line, fix Ukrainian troops in low-priority directions and generate a breakthrough to the north of Avdiivka. So far, Ukrainians seem to be doing everything they can - they mine the areas of advance, and they engage a lot of drones, artillery, and aviation.
The number of tanks and armored vehicles engaged over the last week reminds us of what we saw in Vuhledar. Russians are trying to encircle Avdiivka as fast as possible, so if Ukrainians manage to slow them down enough, then Russians may once again run out of armor and troops before they secure crucial gains.
Some claim that the China-made drone Mugin-5 Pro 5000mm Carbon Fiber UAV was used in the attack. Its range would take it close to Moscow and has room to be upgraded with more fuel, but engine could be swapped out for a more powerful one.
Ukraine is building its own Shahid-like drone to carry 100kg payload but lacks resources to do it large scale.
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Leopard 2A4 tanks delivery will be even more than promised by allies - Denys got this info from his buddies at Antonov and other airlines.
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Germany delivers 14 Marder IFVs - continuously upgraded since introduction in 1970s. Being phased out in German service.
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Xi-Puttin Meeting:
China is building its economy on the cheap resources from Russia: oil, gas, gold, etc.
Xi Panda looks directly at Putin’s eyes, sits upright, relaxed. Putin looks mostly at the ground, looks uncomfortable, slouches in his chair. A pity to watch Putin’s face.
Putin insulted the Panda by sending Minister of Tourism to greet him at the airport. But the Panda will likely push Putin to withdraw his army from Ukraine because that is in China’s best interests.
Chinese stock market declined a few percent with the meeting. A sign that the Panda is not doing a great job with the aspect of Putin’s war crimes.
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Bakhmut:
Minor changes. PMC troops exhausted. PMC needs RGF support. UA supply lines still working. PMC says UA is only using minor forces to hold the city, saving the majority for the spring counterattack. All counterattack info comes from PMC and Russian mil-bloggers. Russian MoD is calm and does not care.
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Adiviika:
Most of the forces south of the city are militias from Donetsk area. Russian forces are exhausted. All of the men from the region have been conscripted from nearby towns and villages and they are also exhausted.
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Counterattack?
Polohy 10km incursion by the UA determined the positions and dispositions of RGF troops and could serve as the point of a counterattack towards Berdansk a main Russian entry port.
But with rapid-deploying, Western bridging equipment, it is possible that the attack could cross the Dniepr River in the area of Nova Kakhovka. [Which makes more sense than the drive to Berdansk or Mariupol which would create a two front battle.]
This is where the Western Riverine boats would play a large part in getting troops across the Dniepr rapidly. [An attack here is closer to the goal of taking the Crimea than the other scenario, plus gives full control over the Crimean water supply. I’m going with this bet on the actual counter attack.]
Denys thinks there will be two secondary attacks: one in Bakhmut and the other in Adiviika.
PMC and mil-bloggers are saying the UA may encircle Belgorod and use it to trade for another city or area.
Thanks for the continued daily reports!