PING!!!!!
Speedy has put together another great Zeeper Roundup of one side of the war.
“’ Exclusive: Russia’s secret document for destabilizing Moldova”
“On Friday, John Kirby, the spokesperson for the National Security Council, made a surprise announcement at a White House press briefing. U.S. intelligence, he said, had determined that the Kremlin was plotting to topple another European democracy. “Russian actors, some with current ties to Russian intelligence, are seeking to stage and use protests in Moldova as a basis to foment a manufactured insurrection against the Moldovan government,” Kirby declared.
As if on schedule, Moldova experienced an antigovernment demonstration on Sunday, just two days later. Thousands of people waving the blue, yellow and red Moldovan flag marched through the streets of downtown Chisinau, the capital, past the national Parliament and executive building. “Down with Maia Sandu!” they chanted, referring to Moldova’s outspokenly pro-European president.”
PING!!!!!
Speedy has put together another great Zeeper Roundup of one side of the war.
Ten percent for The Big Guy.
“Attack On Europe”? Moscow is in Europe. All I’ve seen so far is damage in Ukraine by Russia.
Ukraine: military situation update with maps - Mar 14, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
-—> Combined Arms Breach, what UA will have to master to smash Orc Lines <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-sCT_maAQ
———————————————————————————————————————
Extras:
-—> MQ-9 Reaper Is Capable Of Defending Itself With Air-To-Air Missiles <——
The MQ-9 Reaper can engage aerial targets with the AIM-9X Sidewinder missile, but the will to field it operationally is another story.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/yes-the-mq-9-can-defend-itself-with-air-to-air-missiles
Excerpts:
[Russians: we are innocent.]
At a routine press briefing today, Pentagon Press Secretary U.S. Air Force Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder said that efforts were being made to declassify imagery captured by the MQ-9 during the incident. If such imagery is released, this could help shed more light on exactly what transpired.
Ryder also said that he had nothing to share on potential U.S. efforts to recover the drone and that he was not aware of any Russian attempts so far to do so, either. Russia’s military and intelligence services certainly have experience in and specialized capabilities for recovering objects from the bottom of large bodies of water. This would add to the potential imperative for the U.S. military to do so first, especially given that the MQ-9 could have been carrying sensitive sensors and other systems during this mission.
Excerpts:
Drawing upon accounts from serving members of the military and unnamed officials in Western governments, a recent report from The Washington Post states that Ukraine may have suffered as many as 120,000 killed and wounded during the conflict, compared to 200,000 on the Russian side. [WA Post]
In Bakhmut alone, there are accounts of Ukrainian casualties running as high as an estimated 100-200 a day. Again, this still dwarfs claimed Russian losses, with Ukrainian officials saying that one Ukrainian is killed for every seven Russians. Western officials have estimated total Russian casualties in Bakhmut at somewhere between 20,000 and 30,000. [UK Guardian]
—
Russia’s State Duma, the lower house of its parliament, has backed an amendment intended to punish those found guilty of discrediting “volunteer” groups fighting in Ukraine, like Wagner. Notoriously, Wagner has made use of both mercenary fighters as well as soldier conscripts drafted from the Russian prison system.
This kind of legislation would extend the kinds of protections currently provided to the Russian regular forces to paramilitary organizations like Wagner. Anyone now found to be guilty of “discrediting” the Russian Army can receive a prison sentence of up to five years. Sentences as long as 15 years can be given to those individuals judged to have knowingly spread false information about the military.
—
In the southeastern region of Zaporizhzhia, meanwhile, which is occupied by Russian forces, the “acting governor” told Russia’s state-owned news agency TASS that forces there were preparing for a likely Ukrainian attack.
“We have all regiments, all divisions complete,” Yevgeny Balitsky told TASS. “We are waiting for the enemy because by and large, we know that there is a strike group in the Zaporizhzhia region, respectively, we are strengthening our positions, waiting for the enemy to attack. Now all military operations are concentrated in the area of Vuhledar and Bakhmut, therefore, it is calm in our direction for the time being. And we are preparing for any provocative action by the enemy.”
—
Other new equipment set to be provided to Ukraine includes a pair of Alkmaar class minehunters, the Dutch members of the Cold War-era Tripartite class that was jointly developed by the navies of Belgium, France, and the Netherlands. Ukrainian Minister of Defense Oleksii Reznikov today confirmed that his Dutch counterpart, Mark Rutte, had approved the transfer of the two 600-ton vessels to the Ukrainian Navy.
Excerpts:
On Dec. 23, 2002 - less than three months before Operation Iraqi Freedom began - a Stinger-armed Predator was performing reconnaissance over a no-fly zone when an Iraqi MiG-25 turned in to attack. The Predator fired at the MiG-25, and the TV imagery showed the smoke trails of the two missiles crossing in midair. Unfortunately, the MiG’s missile downed the Predator, but the Iraqi Air Force apparently drew the conclusion the US would have wanted them to: that there was no future in combating Stinger-armed Predators. There were no further attacks against the UAVs.”
Today, a self-protection pod for the Reaper that provides electronic and expendable countermeasures, and spherical situational awareness of threats, exists. It was designed to counter ground-based air defenses primarily, but it may be possible to utilize it in conjunction with AIM-9X, at least for awareness purposes.
At this time there is no indication of MQ-9s being armed with air-to-air missiles on operational missions, but it clearly would not be hard to do so. This capability would have to be deployed in an operational state and tactics and procedures would have to be built around it, along with training for the crews that operate the Reapers.
So yes, the Reaper can fight back in the air-to-air realm, but there needs to be a will to deploy such a capability and the rules of engagement need to be carefully planned around it.
At the very least, it would provide some deterrence to marauding fighters, but the aforementioned rules of engagement, at least under the current circumstances, would limit its utility as it is unlikely Reapers would be allowed to fire without being fired upon.
———————————————————————————————————————
Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
••Day 384.
Today there are a lot of developments in the east.
Here, in an attempt to breach the Ukrainian defense in Bakhmut and make the prospect of a counteroffensive hopeless, Wagner forces made a series of very aggressive operations.
They entered the most fortified part of the city, and simultaneously tried to undercut Ukrainian forces from another side by sending a commando group to force the river and penetrate the city.
Unfortunately for Russians, the commando group was completely overwhelmed by Ukrainian snipers and got quickly destroyed. Last time I told you that Russian forces made another significant push to the west in order to reach Minkivka and attack Ukrainian reserves before they launched a counterattack.
I also told you that such a high concentration of Wagner units on such a narrow section of the front line allowed Ukrainians to inflict substantial losses on Russians by concentrating their artillery, mortar, and aviation strikes.
The freshest reports suggest that this tactic worked well because Russians did not manage to expand their control over the region further. Despite the fact that Ukrainian forces retreated from 2 out of 4 checkpoints inside Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Russians still have not entered these positions because of fire from the hills.
Right now, the most intense fights are taking place on the second hill north of the settlement.
As you can see, the village is located deep between the hills – the change in elevation is more than 60 meters, so control over the settlement is not as important as over the highlands.
Russian sources indicate that after several days of intense airstrikes, Ukrainian forces started to push back and conducted several limited counterattacks by leveraging the high ground that they hold.
Because Wagner forces are so focused on their flanks, the pressure from the Khromove road has been notably alleviated.
If, over the last several weeks, Ukrainians refrained from using it due to risk and even blew up a bridge, then now they have partially restored the bridge and use the Khromove road once again.
Some military analysts are saying that it is possible that Ukrainians have imitated preparation for the counteroffensive along the Sloviansk highway and that it may happen somewhere else, or Wagner forces overstretch themselves and sustain high losses due to their urgent aggressive response to the point where the need for the counteroffensive disappears.
Other military analysts said that judging by the available information on the disposition of Ukrainian troops, the counteroffensive will likely happen at the end of March.
When it comes to the city of Bakhmut itself, today it was confirmed that Wagner forces established control over the first shops of the AZOM industrial complex, which means that the previous reports of clashes here were correct.
The available footage indicates that Russians are controlling the territory of Vostokmash.
The freshest reports show that Ukrainians are extensively shelling the industrial areas under Russian control.
Wagner forces are complaining that Ukrainians are shelling them nonstop, especially as they began assaults on underground sections of the AZOM complex.
Such a tactic destroys Wagner’s reinforcements and does not allow them to retreat to the surface of the area that they control.
The Institute for the Study of War concluded that Wagner Group fighters are becoming increasingly pinned in urban areas.
While Ukrainians are still in the process of reducing Wagner personnel on the AZOM territory, they have successfully destroyed a Russian assault unit that forced the river and tried to put a wedge between the northern and southern groups of Ukrainian forces.
Three days ago, Russian sources started reporting that a group of special operators forced the river at night and established control over two streets, which is quite a lot.
Their main goal was to pass the high-rise buildings and use them to provide cover for the reinforcements that would be sent to the area.
Unfortunately for Russians, Ukrainian snipers held tight control over this region, which is not that hard considering the number of high-rise buildings around.
The same day a video was released by Ukrainian snipers from Bakhmut showing how they hunted down Wagner forces, highly likely exactly in this region.
As a result, the latest repots confirm that Russians lost the bridgehead, but most importantly, they lost an elite group of special operators.
Overall, Wagner forces continue pursuing the most aggressive course of action, where they are simultaneously betting on either breaching Ukrainian defense in AZOM and rapidly taking the city or attacking Ukrainian reserves first, forcing them to pursue positional fights instead of a counteroffensive operation.
This once again confirms that the Ukrainian command managed to prevent the encirclement of Bakhmut and impose beneficial rules for Ukrainians of the game, which is urban fighting.
The conclusion of Russian military analysts is slowly starting to converge with the one of the Institute for the Study of War - Ukrainian forces are grinding Russian forces’ best available infantry to reduce Russian forces’ capability to stop any Ukrainian advances.
==
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPpYQuLW8T0
Denys says:
••US will publish the video of the SU-27s attacking the MQ-9. Drone was in international waters, closer to Turkey than to Crimea. US operations in the area will continue. [Will they now use the armed version of the MQ-9?]
This is the 2nd incident - previously the SU-27 was used to launch a missile near the UK’s RC-135W Rivet Joint - September 2022.
==
Poland will officially supply MiG-29s in 4-6 weeks. Slovakia will supply 10 MiG-29s.
==
Last month Russia expanded its control of Ukraine by <0.04% at the cost of thousands of soldiers killed and a lot of hard to replace armor.
==
Bakhmut:
Ukraine controls a known gap of 2km, and seems to have lost control of the main highway. The gap gets narrower every day. Ukraine casualties have been 1:7 & 1:5, but now that could go to the 1:1 range.
If there is no plan to counterattack, then it’s best to leave the city, but if there is such a plan, then it is best to hold the city. Counterattack probability is quite low in Denys’ opinion.
@NOELreports 2h
The 10th meeting of allies of Ukraine in the “Ramstein” format has begun. The meeting is being held online. The purpose of the meeting is to discuss the Russian invasion of Ukraine and coordinate further support to Ukraine in the long and short term.
Just days before heading back to fight in the Battle of Bakhmut, a Ukrainian soldier Volodymyr, 54, said he felt ill-prepared.
"When they drive us to Bakhmut, I already know I'm being sent to death," Volodymyr told the Kyiv Independent during his brief stay in Kramatorsk, a city in Donetsk Oblast some 25 kilometers west of the front line.
...
"(The Russians) keep firing at us, but we don't have artillery – so we have nothing to attack them back with," Volodymyr said. "I don't know if I will return or not. We are just getting killed."
Ukrainian infantrymen interviewed by the Kyiv Independent described the fighting in Bakhmut as a desperate survival challenge against Russia's "infinite" stocks of artillery munitions and manpower. With just their machine guns and rifles, they say they braced relentless Russian mortar and artillery attacks until their hideout was eventually destroyed.
...
Valeriy, a Ukrainian infantryman, says that most of his fallen comrades were fatally wounded by projectile fragments.
"It's a pity that probably 90% of our losses are from artillery – or tanks and aviation," Valeriy told the Kyiv Independent a few hours after leaving the Bakhmut front. "And much less (casualties) from shooting battles."
Valeriy counted that "only a few" of the original 27 members of his platoon got out of the Bakhmut front with him, though he explained that most of them were wounded, not killed.
"The Russians have so many weapons, and there are so many of them," Valeriy said. "They are firing at us all the time. Sometimes, you hear an incoming every second."
--
Multiple soldiers from other brigades also said they’ve encountered many "refusers" who did everything not to be deployed back to Bakhmut.
During the last rotation in late February, Vladyslav said that only eight out of 25 soldiers in his platoon headed out to Bakhmut – and the rest said they couldn't go because of sudden fever or body pain.
The eight then headed to a position at a crossroad near the Bakhmutka River, where destroyed houses lined up. The platoon came under heavy Russian mortar fire as soon as they arrived.
Two were killed, and two were severely wounded – one soldier lost his arm, and the other was hit in the stomach by a projectile, Vladyslav said. The rest, including Vladyslav himself, received a severe concussion.
They were all evacuated from Bakhmut that day and lost the position.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/03/new-bakhmut-report-high-casualties-low-morale-russian-tactics.html#more
Artillery is, as expected, the big killer in Bakhmut. While there are also many wounded the chances for them to eventually survive is not that big. Artillery wounds are notoriously unclean and slow to heal. There are allegedly Ukrainian orders that slightly wounded men must just be patched up and immediately send back to the front. Working in muddy battle trenches with notoriously bad sanitary conditions practically guarantees that those patched up wounds will then get infected.
The Russian artillery advantage is reportedly 10 to 1. Artillery is causing high casualty rates. Any claim that Russian casualty rates are higher than those on the Ukrainian side are defying the logical conclusion from those facts.
At the rate you are claiming Russia should be out of any equipment by now. Do you really believe your own propaganda or is it wishful thinking? I suspect this propaganda works for the normie in the streets but when you understand how the military works you can clearly see this nothing but pure BS. Ukraine is being ran by Sweater man who is a con artist homo, Russia on the other hand is being ran by a shred savvy leader who takes things seriously. Sweater man will lose and in turn we will lose everything because the moron occupying the White House.
They are talking about sending these jets in the near term - in time for the Ukrainian Counteroffensive.
@visegrad24 4h
BREAKING: Several countries will soon send MIG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine at the same time according to Polish government spokesman Piotr Muller
Poland has received “clear declarations” from them, he added.
@visegrad24 17h
The Slovak gov. has decided to bypass Parliament & will let the gov. decide whether to send Slovakia’s 10 MiG-29 jets to Ukraine. They could decide tomorrow.
@visegrad24 17h
Poland has 30 MiG-29s (about - some may have already been sent as “parts”) to send, while Slovakia has 10.
too bad it won't work for my mortgage....lol !
"well the finance company attacked me and tried to "occupy" my house after I missed years of payments, so I am imposing sanctions and will hire merceneries to make sure the aggressors do not take over the entire neighborhood
F-BIDEN/ZELENSKI/EU
@ChuckPfarrer 4h
BAKHMUT AXIS /1445 UTC 15 MAR/ Heavy positional fighting continues around Bakhmut. UKR conducted 9 aviation strike sorties, including 3 Suppression of Enemy Air Defense (SEAD) missions. Air defense units downed a Russian Su-24 fighter. Urban fighting along the T-05-13 HWY axis.
Oil prices taking a hit, apparently due to recent bank failures.
Brent dropped under $75.
After one year, Russia has taken over 100% of Ukraine. After one year, the Ukraine military has surrendered. After one year, Ukraine president Zelensky, has surrendered his country to Putin and Ukraine is now part of the Russian Federation.
After one year, NONE of that has happened. After one year, the Russians are still trying but not making much progress and in fact, they’re being held back in small parts of eastern Ukraine, with no hope of advancing or gaining new territory. After one year, Russia’s hopes of taking over Ukraine are gone.
After one year, Russia’s supporters on FR are still hoping for Russia to succeed, but, those hopes are not getting any results.
After one year, Russia is desperate to show something for their efforts. After one year, the FR Putin supporters are just as desperate as Putin, with nothing to show but casualties and equipment losses.
After one year, Putin should tell his plants on FR to give it up.
@KyivIndependent 4h
Reznikov ‘optimistic’ following latest Ramstein format meeting.
Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov has said the tenth round of the Ramstein format meeting, which was held on March 15, “inspires optimism.”
According to Reznikov, this enthusiasm relates to strengthening air defense, ammunition supplies, training soldiers and forming what has has called an “armored fist.”
@visegrad24 1h
BREAKING: Sweden will send 10 Leopard 2A5+ to Ukraine.
Mar 16, 2023
Update on Russian military operations in Ukraine for March 16, 2023:
- Russian warplanes intercepted and apparently clipped the propeller of a US MQ-9 drone carrying out surveillance near Crimea;
- The US has no means of recovering the drone, though Russia may have an opportunity to recover it;
- While the drone operated in international airspace according to the US, it was collecting intelligence on behalf of Ukraine as part of ongoing hostilities, as a party of the conflict and thus threatening Russian national security;
- Bakhmut continues to face encirclement;
- The Western media has begun admitting to the grim deterioration of Ukraine’s forces under the weight of Russia’s strategy of attrition;
- Ukraine has lost the majority of troops trained by NATO over the last 8-9 years;
- Ongoing NATO training is rushed, incapable of meeting or exceeding Russia’s pool of trained manpower;
- Ammunition and weapons are also admittedly running out;
- Ukraine may or may not be diverting reserves for an upcoming spring offensive to instead fight in Bakhmut;
- Any possible counteroffensive around Bakhmut might indicate just how badly deteriorated Ukraine’s forces have become;
