Posted on 02/28/2023 5:40:03 AM PST by frithguild
Throughout the vast history of warfare, there have been certain conflicts which have served as key hinge points in the advancement of military science. The foreshortened lens of history beguiles us with the view of wars as static monoliths: two sides slugging it out to a certain conclusion. We see entire years, or even decades, compressed into short highlight reels—whether literal in video form, or the textual equivalent; history books whose chapters gloss over years in a few choice and pithy gestures. [Snip] But most major and lengthy wars, in fact, incur seminal advancements throughout their course, such that the end often bears little resemblance to the beginning—as if they were two separate conflicts bifurcated by an epochal shift, like the turning of an age. [Snip] Today in Ukraine we are witnessing what is likely to become another epochal shift—a passing of an era. The beginning of the conflict saw clumsy utilizations of first-generation drone technologies, like the basic family-friendly DJI Phantom models. This quickly expanded into the smaller and more versatile DJI Mavics, and other type of larger and more powerful octo- and hexacopters, fixed-wing-VTOL-hybrids, and now VR-goggle-aided FPV racing drones. [Snip] But beyond that, A.I. is the most ascendant technology which will soon transform the face of all conflict, including this one, should it last long enough. A.I. systems which can ‘smartly’ negotiate terrain and find, identify, and even engage targets on their own are already in nascent prototyping phases all over the world, and will more than likely soon see their entry into the current conflict.
The coming war with China, even if somehow limited to a conventional conflict, will be to the aircraft carrier what WWII was for the battleship.
Kintzal has made the aircraft carrier obsolete. A carrier has no defense.
Until the US Navy gets an aircraft with a range of 1000 miles or more aircraft carriers should stay away from China. Let the air force bombers and navy submarines do the fighting. Carriers can go after any blue water ships China deploys.
“The Kh-47M2 Kinzhal (in Russian: Х-47М2 Кинжал, “Dagger”, NATO reporting name Killjoy) is a Russian nuclear-capable hypervelocity aero-ballistic air-to-surface missile. It has a claimed range of more than 2,000 km (1,200 mi), Mach 12 speed (2.5 mi/s), and an ability to perform evasive maneuvers at every stage of its flight.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kh-47M2_Kinzhal
“U.S President Joe Biden said of its use ‘As you all know, it’s a consequential weapon but with the same warhead on it as any other launched missile. It doesn’t make that much difference except it’s almost impossible to stop it.’”
same Wikipedia Kintzal link
I have been pulling for a swift end to the SMO. After reading this article, I am coming to believe that it will last until AI, communication technology and drone/robotics become mature enough to efficiently clear trenches and citiscapes.
This is all pretty frightening when you think how these technologies may be used in "peacetime."
“Max Service Ceiling Above Sea Level 6000 m
“Max Flight Time (no wind) 46 minutes *
“Max Hovering Time (no wind) 40 minutes *”
“Max Flight Distance 30 km”
“Max Transmission Distance (unobstructed, free of interference and aligned with controller)
2.400-2.4835 GHz; 5.725-5.850 GHz
FCC: 15 km
CE: 8 km
SRRC: 8 km
MIC: 8 km
Signal Transmission Ranges (FCC)
Strong Interference (urban landscape, limited line of sight, many competing signals): Approx. 1.5-3 km
Medium Interference (suburban landscape, open line of sight, some competing signals): Approx. 3-9 km
Low Interference (open landscape abundant line of sight, few competing signals): Approx. 9-15 km”
https://www.dji.com/mavic-3/specs
I can’t see China invading Taiwan. I think they will blockade Taiwan, destroying their economy. During the starving of Taiwan by blockade an agreement among the two warring Chinese factions will be arrived at. Unless, of course, the fools in DC attempt to destroy the Chicom blockading forces. The loss of a US carrier in the South China Sea will most likely be the catalyst for an eventual nuclear exchange between the US and China.
Drone swarm navigating a bamboo forest.
“These quadcopters can fly up to 120 miles per hour (or faster) through hoops, around trees, over bars, and just about any object.”
https://uavcoach.com/fpv-quadcopter-drone-systems/
What happens if the CCP/RF preemptively sink ALL our carriers (No defense to a Kinzhal). This is why development of AI/communication/robotics in the Ukraine is critical. There is no sense in trying to defend Taiwan if this technology becomes effective in clearing trenches and cityscapes. This article compares the technology we have now to WWI pilots hand launching bombs into trenches. Where it may go is a separate killshot from a drone to each human the AI facial recognition identifies. Scary.
Read about the Russian Saiga-12 system:
“what really sets the Saiga-12 apart from other combat shotguns is the fact that it’s magazine-fed”
[midway down]
https://www.quora.com/At-what-distance-do-shotgun-pellets-start-to-spread
“In Russia, this shotgun can be relatively simply obtained, requiring only a “smoothbore-gun license” (which is relatively easy to obtain, compared to a “rifle license” that requires a five-year period of owning a smoothbore gun and a hunting permit).
“In response to the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation, U.S. President Barack Obama issued Executive Order 13662 on July 16, 2014 blocking the importation of all Russia-produced firearms.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saiga-12
I suspect soldiers normally stay hidden in dispersed foxholes and mainly use trenches for mobility.
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