“New Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine ‘more aspirational than realistic,’ say Western officials”
“As Russia begins a new offensive in eastern Ukraine, the US and its allies are skeptical Moscow has amassed the manpower and resources to make significant gains, US, UK and Ukrainian officials tell CNN. “It’s likely more aspirational than realistic,” said a senior US military official.
Russia has been increasing the number of forces situated on its border and inside Russian-held territory in Ukraine, some of the forces drawn from a partial mobilization ordered in September last year. Despite the increased numbers, Western allies have not seen evidence of sufficient changes to those forces’ ability to carry out combined arms operations needed to take and hold new territory.
“It’s unlikely Russian forces will be particularly better organized and so unlikely they’ll be particularly more successful, though they do seem willing to send more troops into the meat grinder,” a senior British official told CNN.“
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/15/politics/russia-offensive-ukraine-western-officials/index.html
So they ran low on tanks apparently (or decided they weren’t effective), and started just throwing corpses-to-be at Ukraine. Now, they’re going back to tanks. Running low on corpses-to-be? Bringing in recommissioned tanks from out of mothballs?
Supposedly, they had an invasion force of about 1,200 tanks out of about 3,000 active-duty tanks, although there were guesses that they were affording 1/3 of their total defenses for the offense, which would imply 3,600 tanks. Estimates including decommissioned tanks ranged from 7,000 (number of reasonably recoverable tanks) to 20,000 (including any tank ever built and still identifiable as a tank).
If they’re going to start burning through 100 tanks/month again, they probably have about 1,800 months before they’re defenseless and sending them straight from mothballs to reconditioning to the front line.
Lol. Today’s Fantasyland.
Any day now, Ukraine will be marching on the Kremlin. Any day now...
Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Feb 15, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
———————————————————————————————————————
Extras:
-—> Balloons Shot Down Over Ukraine Point To New Russian Tactics <——
Cheap balloons with radar reflectors could expose useful details about Ukrainian air defenses and bait them into wasting valuable munitions.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/balloons-shot-down-over-kyiv-point-to-new-russian-tactics
Excerpt:
Ukrainian armed forces shot down several balloons with radar reflectors suspended beneath them that were spotted flying over or near the capital Kyiv on Wednesday, according to officials in that country.
This appears to be an emerging Russian tactic that could be used to gather intelligence about Ukraine’s air defense capabilities, baiting them into wasting precious ammunition and other resources, or otherwise distracting or confusing their operators.
The balloons do not represent an innovation of any kind, Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Col. Yuri Ignat stressed on Ukrainian national television Wednesday. “Those are methods that have been in use for a long time already and are outdated,
Russia’s use of corner reflectors as low-tech decoys is relatively expansive and well documented. The country has deployed various arrangements of these metallic objects around key targets, especially bridges, in and near Ukraine in an attempt to disrupt attacks that rely on radar guidance or intelligence.
All told, Russian forces employing balloons like this makes sense on a number of levels and it is very possible that they could become an increasingly common sight in Ukrainian skies.
==
-—> Ukraine Bought ‘All The Gas Trucks Available In Europe’ To Keep Fueled <——
Thanks to a massive influx from the U.S. and other allies, and buying thousands of fuel trucks, Ukraine says it has plenty of fuel.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-bought-all-the-gas-trucks-available-in-europe-to-keep-fueled
Excerpt:
Ukraine claims it has actually increased its fuel reserves to the point of surplus thanks to the influx of imports and an innovative logistics operation using thousands of fuel trucks as mobile storage sites.
Ukraine began receiving large amounts of fuel in January from the U.S., and over the course of Russia’s all-out invasion, purchased thousands of fuel tanker trucks to create a mobile storage system ... There has never been this [American] fuel in Ukraine. There is also fuel from Taiwan, India, and the Netherlands.
The logistics system has radically changed ... Before the war we supplied fuel by rail and sea, now 40% of our supplies are road transport. These are thousands of gasoline trucks that from a security vantage point are impossible to catch. You can bomb an oil depot, an oil refinery, aim at a railway station. But what to do with these thousands of gasoline trucks? This is a revolutionary thing.
Russia’s most glaring problem is it lacks the ability to hit dynamic targets beyond the front line ...
Another factor in Ukraine’s current fuel surplus is that the all-out war has damaged the economy and reduced territory. Even in areas still in Ukrainian hands, the war has devastated the agrarian industry, further reducing the need for fuel. That combination of factors has lowered fuel consumption
———————————————————————————————————————
Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
••Day 357.
Today there is a lot of news from the east.
Here, the Ukrainians have been preparing for a big counterattack in order to reset Russian advances and force them to commit more resources to Bakhmut at the expense of their massive offensive operation.
As a result, the Russians lost their positions on the hills above Ivanivske, which is equal to two weeks of progress.
When it comes to Bakhmut, previously, I told you that the Ukrainians have relocated certain troops from Kostiantynivka to the Chasiv Yar area and started preparing for a counterattack.
I also told you that because the Russians created a very narrow pathway, they created perfect conditions for a flank attack.
Today, it was confirmed that the Ukrainians had conducted a counterattack precisely in this region.
The attack was reportedly conducted from two sides: the first one to cut them off and the second one to force them to step back.
Russian sources only reported the fact of the counterattack, while Ukrainian sources indicated that the Russians were pushed away from the hills.
This is a significant development because it allows the Ukrainians to preserve control over the logistical routes that supply Bakhmut.
The Head of the Wagner Group that is trying to cut Ukrainian supplies explained yesterday why the Ukrainians are still holding Bakhmut.
He said that apart from the three main roads, there are more than ten small roads that go along the tree belts and connect Bakhmut and all other villages in the area with the mainland.
Other military analysts stated that current weather allows to use these roads with ease, even with regular cars, let alone Humvees.
So, even if the Russians had enough artillery support in this region to constantly shell the main roads, it would not affect the number of supplies arriving at Bakhmut.
Having said that, the Russians showed incremental progress to the north of Bakhmut. Here, geolocated footage confirmed that a small Russian assault group had come out of the ravine, crossed the road, and assaulted Ukrainian positions in front of Berhivka.
The situation in Paraskoviivka is extremely difficult but under total Ukrainian control.
Some Russian sources suggest that this group is completely cut off from the mainland and that they will be encircled within several days.
However, the same claims were floating around Krasna Hora, which was virtually encircled for weeks.
Today, the footage was released of how Ukrainian soldiers were withdrawing from Krasna Hora. As you can see, they were not in rush, and the withdrawal was prudently conducted.
This shows that the Ukrainians are tightly controlling the situation on the ground, have all the contingencies worked out, and are timely adjusting to the new developments as they unfold.
The same situation is happening right now around Paraskoviivka. Despite the seeming encirclement, they know how many trenched in front of the highway are still under their control, and when the Russians pass the tree belt lines and are ready to assault the forest, the Ukrainians will withdraw from Paraskoviivka as well.
The fact that the Ukrainians refuse to give away their positions unless absolutely necessary requires the Russians to spend significantly more time, and time is working against the Russians because the snow will start melting already next week.
Overall, the most intense fights are happening to the north and south of Bakhmut, where the Russians are trying to create a breakthrough to close the pocket and capture everyone inside.
Their main goal was to reach the two biggest highways, but once they achieved it, Russian commanders realized that the pocket is too big to control and there are too many field roads that the Ukrainians are using on a continuous basis.
Some Western reporters are raising concerns about Bakhmut because the city finds itself deep in the cauldron, which can rapidly close.
However, the fact that the Ukrainians are controlling another major town on a hill, Chasiv Yar, will not allow the Russians to advance here easily.
And today, we saw how the Ukrainians conducted a successful counterattack and pushed the Russians from the hills.
The Institute for the Study of War also continues to assess the defense of Bakhmut as the key Ukrainian effort because if the Russians continue spending their resources here without achieving reasonable results, then the Ukrainians will buy themselves enough time to prepare and launch their counteroffensive operation.
So, considering all the factors, it is still too early to talk about the Ukrainian withdrawal from Bakhmut.
==
-—> Denys says: <——
Interpreting a Prigozhin video: One of the reason Prigozhin’s Wagner Group has been withdrawn/sidelined is because, basically, their lease of Russian Army weapons has expired. Not renewing it and slowing supplies was done on purpose, he said. Surviving convicts are still being used on the front, but there will be no more of them. After their contracts expire they will be released - the very few that survive, and the PMC will shrink. He talks about lack of support from the regular army and complains that his forces are too small to operate all over.
He is a very unhappy camper.
Denys says there are growing forces of high ranking important Russians that want everything to go back to normal so they are passing intel to Ukraine and the West. There is also a group that wants to follow Prigozhin not Putin. Sidelining Prigozhin with his Army and other internal moves are parts of Putin’s preparations for the coming elections.
Chances of PMC taking Bakhmut are still there, but the chances are much lower than a week ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPpYQuLW8T0
==
-—> Report from UA tanker training on Leopard 2 tanks, Russian troops killing each other, IR of artillery turret shoot <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUshoz9jS2g
@visegrad24 11h
Happy Fat Thursday!
The Christian tradition to indulge on the last Thursday before Lent is alive in several countries but probably nowhere as much as in Poland.
Poles buy more than 100 million pączki (doughnuts) today, and eat on average nearly 3 each.
American Fat TUESDAY will be next week, 21 February.
Laissez les bons temps rouler!
@visegrad24 14h
BREAKING:
More than a dozen Ukrainian drones just attacked Sevastopol in Crimea.
...ferries and traffic has been stopped in connection with the attack.
LMAO. “Russkiy Mir”.
@francis_scarr
Hundreds of people in the Russian city of Blagoveshchensk gathered to show their support for the invasion of Ukraine by *pouring cold water on themselves*
And no, I’m not joking
https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1626207811641266178