"UA MoD hit an all time (daily) high with claimed Liquidated Personnel (1,140 Russian KIA in a single day)). I do not necessarily trust the numbers, but they are a good (relative) indicator if losses are high or low for the previous day."
5 more RuZZian tank losses. Their spring offensive has been a smashing failure.
My amateur military analysis: RuZZia’s lack of air superiority is killing them. They can’t fly jets over most of Ukraine. If they could, they could attempt to interdict Western military aid convoys, search and destroy HIMARs, etc. Their planes basically only fly over occupied territory. It means they will lose this war.
CIA disinformation is so informative.
Another Russian Su-25 shot down near Bakhmut today.
Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Feb 10, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
———————————————————————————————————————
Extras:
-—> Ukraine Situation Report: This May Be Russia’s First Kamikaze Drone Boat Attack <——
If confirmed, the attack on a bridge south of Odesa would mark the first known use of this type of weapon by Russian forces.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-this-may-be-russias-first-kamikaze-drone-boat-attack
Excerpts:
Russian media and milbloggers are claiming the road and railway bridge in Zatoka in the Odesa region was hit by an unmanned surface vessel. The actual damage to the bridge, which links the region with the rest of Ukraine, could not immediately be ascertained.
An 18-second video shared on Twitter appears to be a recording of people watching a video on a computer screen. A small, swiftly moving vessel passes under the bridge in between two supports and explodes at about the 8-second mark. There is a bright flash and clouds of white smoke, but the video cuts off before the extent of damage can be shown.
It is difficult to talk about the scale of damage based on the available footage, but, apparently, the bridge supports were damaged,” Rybar reported. “This is the only railway bridge leading to the western part of the Odessa region directly through the territory of Ukraine. An alternative shortest route is the road, which runs almost 8 km through the territory of Moldova.”
... having a boat navigate to the target area autonomously using a relatively simple autopilot, then handing off control to an operative nearby, is the most likely operational concept being employed. Also, where did Russia get these systems? It’s close ally and weapons supplier Iran is a notorious pioneer when it comes to this niche capability.
==
Several Russian missiles flew through the airspace of Moldova and Romania. Today’s missiles are a challenge to NATO, collective security.
==
Despite this terror, the absolute majority of Ukrainians remain with heat, water and electricity. Repairs are underway, there are enough resources to finish the winter, generators are arriving, energy equipment from partners is leaving.
==
the Ukrainian Armed Forces say they are forming new assault brigades of the National Guard “to participate in the liberation of Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimea,” according to the Ukrainian Media Center.
There are already 2,000 applicants for these new strike brigades and that the volunteers will undergo a fairly rapid training program that begins with two weeks of what is essentially boot camp, followed by more in-depth training at the platoon level and battalion levels, all done to NATO standards.
People should be aware of the fact that he is to keep on with all the challenges of the battle life. They should be very well fit. They should be ready to die, and to suffer all the coldness, all the heat, and the autonomous regime of action for up to 72 hours.
—
-—> Here’s How Feasible The U.K. Giving Eurofighters To Ukraine Actually Is <——
Rumors are swirling that the RAF’s oldest Tranche 1 Typhoon fighters could be transferred to help Kyiv’s fight against Russia.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/heres-how-feasible-the-u-k-giving-eurofighters-to-ukraine-actually-is
Excerpts:
The U.K. Royal Air Force (RAF) currently operates two main types of fighters: the Eurofighter Typhoon and the Lockheed Martin F-35B Lightning. The former is the only one that could be considered for transfer to Ukraine.
Italy is notable in that it has an impressive end-to-end training system that is already being used by a host of international air forces. So, there is a possible international path to training Ukrainian pilots on the Eurofighter.
... the RAF has three main standards of Typhoons. The oldest and least capable are known as Tranche 1, of which the RAF received 53 examples, and which entered service beginning in 2003.
In common with all Eurofighter partner air forces, these fighters started out as pure air-to-air platforms, with the RAF examples armed with the MBDA Advanced Short Range Air-to-Air Missile (ASRAAM) and Raytheon AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM), plus the onboard cannon.
Indeed, even the basic Tranche 1 version offers markedly superior air-to-air capabilities compared to the typical surplus F-16s that have been repeatedly mentioned in connection with Ukrainian fighter transfers.
BAE Systems - the U.K. manufacturer in the Eurofighter consortium - stated that there is no technical reason why the RAF couldn’t upgrade and retain its Tranche 1 Eurofighters. “It is technically feasible to bring a Tranche 1 aircraft to the standard of a Tranche 2 or Tranche 3 aircraft,” the company said.
A collaborative approach to the supply of fighter aircraft to Ukraine could be achieved by using surplus Eurofighters from the quartet of European partner nations.
... the total of 30 Tranche 1 jets that could be potentially made available by the United Kingdom tallies very closely with the recent request from Col. Yuri Ignat, the chief spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force Command, for two 12-aircraft squadrons of new fighters, plus reserves. According to Ignat, such a force would be sufficient, at least at first, to help turn the tables against Russian air power.
—
-—> F-22 Shoots Down “Object” Flying High Over Alaskan Waters (Updated) <——
The new high-altitude incident in U.S. airspace off the coast of Alaska follows recent revelations about Chinese spy balloons.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/f-22-shoots-down-new-object-flying-high-over-alaskan-waters
Excerpts:
Details are still limited, but a U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptor has shot down a relatively high-flying “object” over U.S. territorial waters off the coast of Alaska.
What exactly this may have been and who it might have belonged to are unknown, but this does come less than a week after an F-22 brought down what American officials say was a Chinese surveillance balloon after it traveled through U.S. and Canadian airspace for a number of days.
Neither could provide specific details about the object, but said it was flying at approximately 40,000 feet and presented a potential hazard to civilian flight traffic. It was brought down out of an abundance of caution.
Where exactly the object was shot down and where the wreckage fell is not immediately clear. Kirby said that the incident had taken place somewhere in the northeastern corner of Alaska near the border with Canada.
[East of Prudhoe Bay and north of the Stockton Islands. Within the Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuse]
Significant debris is now reportedly sitting atop of sea ice and efforts are now being made to recover if for analysis.
He also said the object did not appear to be readily maneuverable or have a substantial payload. Ryder said the object was “about the size of a small car.”
Recovery is happening in a mix of ice and snow. Units located in Alaska under the direction of U.S. Northern Command, along with the Alaskan National Guard, are involved in the response.
———————————————————————————————————————
••Day 352.
In the Vuhledar area, the Russians rapidly changed their axis of advance and tried to catch the Ukrainians by surprise with a sudden attack from the west.
They prepared a very powerful fist consisting of several tank companies, but, unfortunately for the Russians, this resulted in devastating losses and a huge scandal with demands to fire all commanders involved in planning this operation.
Here, the Russians canceled their assaults in the direction of coal mines and Vuhledar itself and started moving around this town.
The primary goal of the Russians here is to cut supplies from Bohoyavlenka, and they can achieve it either by attacking it directly or by penetrating the territory in between.
Their secondary goal is to lengthen the front line and force the Ukrainians to stretch their forces along the bulge, which should also undermine the ability of the Ukrainians to reinforce Vuhledar.
This is a very questionable decision because the Ukrainians can deliver supplies through Vodiane.
Nonetheless, as reported by the Ukrainian General Staff, the Russians started moving in the direction of Bohoyavlenka and Prechystivka.
The local geography is also not on the side of the Russians as they are once again attacking from the lowlands.
It looks like the Russians took control of the area in front of Shevchenko, got across the river, and launched a powerful attack in an attempt to take the local hills.
Even at first glance, the prospects of assaulting Vuhledar from the west look even grimmer than from the east.
From the east, the Russians at least managed to get on the hill by moving from Mykylske, which allowed them to assault Ukrainian positions from the same elevation.
As you might remember, around a week ago, I told you that the Russians moved to Volnovakha dozens of pieces of equipment and a lot of manpower in preparation for a heavy push, and as it turned out, their job would be to penetrate the front line west of Vuhledar.
Unfortunately for the Russians, the recent drone footage showed that the Russians lost 13 battle tanks and 12 infantry fighting vehicles in a single engagement, which means that a fresh Russian tank battalion lost its combat capability in one day.
A Ukrainian reserve officer also reported that right now, the fights are mostly conducted by ethnic Tatar volunteer battalion instead of Russian marines.
This suggests that the Russian marines from the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade sustained insurmountable losses and were replaced.
This is not surprising, considering that the Russians had already lost half of the marines in this brigade when they stormed Pavlivka.
This caused a huge scandal, in which all Russian media sources shared a devastating critique of the Russian command, demanding to fire the high-ranked officers.
The main point of the critique was that Russian vehicles advanced in one line, which made them a perfect target for the Ukrainian artillery.
However, even though there are many ways to assault this region, all of them are bad. These fields stretch for almost 10 km, and they have been densely mined by the Ukrainians, which means that the probability that a vehicle runs into an anti-tank mine is almost 100%.
In order to make sure that they make a deep penetration despite the mines, they were ordered to move in a column, betting that the Ukrainians discover them too late.
However, the Ukrainians discovered them on time and destroyed them with their artillery.
The total Russian defeat in Vuhledar has ruined the upcoming massive offensive operation.
Judging by the number of forces devoted to the region and judging by the fact that the Russians engaged a lot of tanks in each of their attacks, it is clear that they intended to take Vuhledar and not just conduct combat reconnaissance to fix Ukrainian troops.
The Russians needed to create a sudden breakthrough here because the Battle for Bakhmut has been going on for so long that the Ukrainians have adjusted, so the fall of Bakhmut is unlikely to change the global setting.
On the other hand, the fall of Vuhledar would require rapid deployment of strategic reserves in an attempt to stop the penetration.
But the breakthrough did not happen, the Russians suffered extensive losses, and when they finally launch their offensive in the Luhansk region, their mobilized soldiers will have to deal with fresh Ukrainian troops.
This will lead to a much slower pace of advance than they planned, which will slow down even more with the return of the rainy season.
Russian Government finances are now in dramatic decline - January was the worst month ever reported for the Russian Government.
Not only have oil revenues (the mainstay of Gov’t revenues) crashed, as compared to last January before the war (following the implosion of natural gas revenues), but VAT revenues (from the civilian transactions in their general economy), plummeted a whopping 45%, while Government expenditures more than quintupled. Their income tax receipts were actually negative for the month, as they shovel rubles out of the printing presses to subsidize their economy in the short term.
They planned on an historic deficit for their 2023 budget, and realized a quarter of that annual deficit in just the first month alone.
If oil prices stay at these levels (still moderately high by historic norms), Russia is on track for serious financial crisis this year, when they exhaust their reserves. More extreme outcomes will become unavoidable, like hyperinflation, or draconian price controls, even nationalizations (de facto or de jure) or rationing.
The first half of last year was a tsunami in revenue for Russia. The first half of this year is like the aftermath, where the tsunami pulls back out to sea.
Vlad, When you have lost Serbia, you have lost the World.
@visegrad24 5h
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić asked whether Crimea is part of Russia or Ukraine.
He answers: “Crimea is part of Ukraine. Donbas in part of Ukraine.”
@visegrad24 2h
BREAKING: Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic says Serbia will soon have to impose sanctions against Russia due to strong pressure from the West.
He said that he will do it in the right moment and that “it’s not months away.”
For anyone who wants to respond.
Did the Russian soldiers in the field ever get adequate winter gear, for wearing and sleeping?
With Putin planning the celebration event on the 22nd, are there any indications of where the big combat events are going to be happening in the next 10 days, or what is planned to produce good news for him?
"UA MoD hit an all time (daily) high with claimed Liquidated Personnel (1,140 Russian KIA in a single day)). I do not necessarily trust the numbers, but they are a good (relative) indicator if losses are high or low for the previous day."
