Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

ORYX ^ | Since February 24, 2022 and daily | ORYX

[SpeedyInTexas]

I’m doubting Israeli Air Force is over Iranian cities... If they go into Iran it will be to attack nuclear facilities.

“Iran 🇮🇷 is being attacked. A number of weapons / drones factories have been struck.

Iranian 🇮🇷 Telegram indicates that Israeli 🇮🇱 Air Force has been seen over multiple Iranian cities.

Seems Russia’s 🇷🇺 drone supplier, to attack Ukraine 🇺🇦, may be going out of business!!!”

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1619481603532795904

[Kazan]

https://sonar21.com/whats-next-by-helmholtz-smith/

For those outside the NATO propaganda bubble there is general agreement that

1) Russia is winning both in the Ukraine battlefield and the wider theater.

2) Time is on Russia’s side.

First the Ukraine battlefield. The first aim in war is to destroy the enemy’s power and that Russia is doing, especially in the Bakhmut slaughterhouse. Kiev is determined to stand and fight here and the Russians are quite happy to let them do so – “artillery conquers and infantry occupies” – and that is what we see here. Slowly slowly the Russian forces advance over mountains of Ukrainian bodies. In the last week or so Russian forces have begun to advance on other fronts too. This grinding away can continue until Ukraine collapses because it is easier for the Russians to let the enemy come to them than go after them. Meanwhile Russian missiles destroy the infrastructure Kiev needs to continue the war. Time and developments favor Russia and there is no incentive to make “big arrow” movements.

On the bigger war the sanctions that were supposed to have crushed Russia have boomeranged and we have headlines like “Inflation in Europe is falling but food prices are rising” and hypothermia deaths in England. Inflation is falling because demand is falling and demand is falling because businesses are stopping because of the price of fuel. Germany’s PMI is declining. No one (except the bubble dwellers in NATO) should be surprised – you sanctioned the biggest energy exporter, biggest grain exporter and a big exporter of potash, did you expect prices to go down? Everything needs energy and everybody needs food. NATO unity wobbles with Turkey, Sweden and Finland. Hungary officially notices the sufferings of Hungarians in Ukraine. Partitioning Ukraine was contemplated. Macron suspects the US is intentionally weakening its European allies. Did Washington just sucker Berlin into going first – when exactly will the Abrams get there? NATO is now breaking into its active stocks (Estonia joins Denmark in sending all its artillery). (And, not that anybody is asking, who blew up Nord Stream?) Riots and protests all over Europe. What’s happening in Kiev? The longer this goes on the weaker Russia’s enemies become. So in the big war, time and developments favor Russia and there is no incentive to make “big arrow” movements. Therefore Russia should keep doing what it’s doing and hold the big force in reserve – no reason to change anything – it’s attritting its enemies.

[Kazan]

https://sonar21.com/whats-next-by-helmholtz-smith/

How crazy will NATO get? Its strategy is a total failure. “Crippling sanctions” haven’t collapsed the Russian economy, overthrown Putin or made the population rise up. Just the opposite – when even the Economist has to admit Russia “did a lot better than expected” you know it’s actually thriving. The wonder weapons – Bayraktars, Javelins, M777s, HIMARS, Gepards, Patriots and now tanks – have done nothing but prolong Ukraine’s suffering and make Wagner and Akhmat Sila into the best urban fighters in the world. What next? Can NATO reverse itself? Can it survive another defeat? Or, as Larry wonders, drive straight into the Grand Canyon? What new lunacy will it come up with when the tanks fail?

[SpeedyInTexas]

Kazan is the name of a city in RuZZia.

Is that where you live?

[SpeedyInTexas]

An article from WSJ.

“Iran Ammunition Factory Hit by Blast”

“Iranian media also report large fire at oil refinery outside the city of Tabriz”

“Iran said three drones caused an explosion at an ammunition factory in the city of Isfahan late Saturday, amid fresh tensions with the West and Israel over Tehran’s military involvement in Ukraine and stalled negotiations to revive an international accord that limits Iran’s nuclear activities.

Phone footage captured by several passersby in Isfahan and posted on social media showed what appeared to be a large explosion on the side of a building on a major street.

“At around 23:30, an unsuccessful attack using micro-aerial vehicles was carried out on one of the Defense Ministry’s workshops,” the Defense Ministry said in a statement, adding that one drone had been shot down by air defenses while two others had exploded. The ministry said the roof of one building had been slightly damaged, and that the explosion had caused no casualties.

A local crisis-management chief, Mansour Shisheforoush, told state media that residents had reported “abnormal sounds” in three or four parts of Imam Khomeini Street, a main thoroughfare leading to the city center.

Iranian authorities didn’t immediately assign blame for the blast.

Iranian media also reported a large fire had broken out at an oil refinery in an industrial area outside the western city of Tabriz. It wasn’t clear whether the two incidents were related.”

https://archive.ph/T7mJB

[SpeedyInTexas]

Assuming its a drone attack against 1 or more Iranian targets, any thoughts on whose behind it?

Seems likely ‘suspects’ would be Ukraine or Israel.

Ukraine could’ve done it if launched from a nearby country (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait) or potentially from a ship in the Gulf.

Israel another candidate. But is it a ‘big enough’ attack to justify Israel doing it.

If the ammo factory produced drones, could be a good target for Ukraine.

[Vlad0]

Soledar last week, Bakmut this next. The Russian military is slowly grinding down the Ukraine forces.

8 hours ago:

The Guardian UK: Russia-Ukraine war live: Ukraine struggling to hold Bakhmut

Bakhmut has largely been pulverised by repeated Russian attacks.

“The Russians are destroying anything that can be used for cover,” said one source. “The Ukrainian forces don’t have enough artillery.”

The risk of Bakhmut being encircled was said to be growing, with Ukraine’s army facing shortages of artillery that could hold back the advancing Russian forces.

Even Zelensky is now admitting that the situation for his Army is "extremely acute".

4 hours ago:

International Development News: Russia's war on Ukraine latest: Situation at front 'extremely acute', Zelenskiy says

* President Volodymyr Zelenskiy described the situation at the front as "extremely acute", particularly in the eastern Donetsk region where Russia is stepping up an offensive.

* Zelenskiy reported major battles for Vuhledar, to the southwest of Donetsk's regional capital, and Bakhmut, to the northeast. Bakhmut has largely been pulverized by repeated Russian attacks.

The Financial Times sums it up as: Hell. Probably the most accurate description by anyone.

‘Hell. Just hell’: Ukraine and Russia’s war of attrition over Bakhmut

But with the fighting reminiscent of trench warfare, the city is experiencing an unparalleled level of death and destruction. Ukrainian fighters say it is a ghost town on its way to becoming a wasteland like nearby Izyum and the southern port city of Mariupol before it.

Once boasting a population of more than 70,000 and famous for its salt mines and sparkling wine factory, much of the city has been reduced to rubble after six months of air strikes and heavy artillery attacks. Fewer than 7,000 residents remain and they subsist mostly on humanitarian assistance. There is no power, water, gas or heating.

The city centre, which once bustled with a large outdoor market and cafés, is a fortress, with “hedgehog” angled metal bars and other anti-tank defences blocking the main avenues. 

The only traffic is ambulances racing the wounded to medical points and tanks and other military vehicles trundling along chewed-up roads and through tangles of fallen electric tram lines. 

Ukrainian soldier adds wood to fire to try to stay warm.

[FtrPilot]

At this point, I hesitate to speculate.

Below is a post I made to another thread:

Here's a deep dive.

Perhaps Russia painted some of their Tu-141 drones in Ukrainian colors and launched it into Iran.

Blame Ukraine for the attack and convince Iran to join the war effort or at least sell Russia some ballistic missiles.

End of other post.

.

I don't believe a Tu-141 has enough range to fly from Ukraine to Iran.

There has been a lot of turmoil in Iran lately...lots of protests. Perhaps Mossad is supplying Iranian partisans with some black market drones.

Next couple of weeks could be very interesting.

[SpeedyInTexas]

I’ll guess Ukraine behind the drone attack.

With US “assistance”, they secured a launch pad from A neighboring country and launched.

[SpeedyInTexas]

RuZZian boy, You are boring me.

[Vlad0]

Nazi-lover, you disgust me.
Life sucks, especially for Nazi-Lovers.

[FtrPilot]

A highly unreliable source lists the combat radius of the Tu-141 at 1000 km.

So on a one way mission, it could go 2000 km.

So, it might be able to fly from Ukraine to Iran.

I'll see if I can find a great circle calculator.

If Ukraine did launch from a neighboring country then I believe the best way would be to buy some black market Iranian drones and not use Tu-141s.

So many possibilities.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Ukraine is very creative as we saw with the Crimean bridge attack. My money’s on them.

This doesn’t feel like an Israeli attack to me. Israel knows how to attack.

[SpeedyInTexas]

S to be a RuZZian boy. Loser.

[SpeedyInTexas]

“Iran’s defense ministry said that it had thwarted an attack Saturday on one of its munition centers in the central city of Isfahan by shooting down three drones.

In a statement, the ministry said the attempted attack occurred around 11:30 p.m local time with quadcopter drones and it reported no casualties. It said the facility’s roof had sustained minor damage.

Video footage posted on social media by witnesses showed a large explosion erupting in the night sky above the military facility, which is located on a major road in northern Isfahan. A man standing on the side of the road as traffic whizzed by is heard on the video saying antiaircraft missiles were fired before an explosion was heard. “It’s a drone, it’s a drone,” he said of the target.

State television said the authorities were investigating what was behind the attempted attack on the munitions center and the extent of the damage.

But some Telegram channels, including that of Sepah Cyberi, which is affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps, accused Israel and its agents inside the county of being behind the attack and warned “experience has shown that Iran will retaliate.”
“Wait for rogue drones hitting Zionist oil tankers,” its posting said.

Iran and Israel have been engaged in a shadow war on land, sea, air and in cyberspace for the past three years, with Israel carrying out strikes on Iranian military and nuclear facilities and assassinating scientists and a senior military official.

Iran has retaliated by targeting Israeli-owned ships with drones in the Persian Gulf and in the Red Sea and by firing ballistic missiles into Kurdish northern Iraq where, it said, Israel planned and carried out a drone attack on an Iranian drone factory in March 2022.

In its statement after Saturday’s attack, the defense ministry said “such blind-sighted attacks will have no bearing on the country’s development.”

Local media said the attack involved three quadcopter suicide drones, and it was similar to a strike carried out against a nuclear centrifuge factory belonging to Iran’s Atomic Agency in June 2021 and one carried out against a Hezbollah facility in Beirut in August 2019. The latter attack destroyed what Israeli officials described as machinery vital to Hezbollah’s missile production efforts.

Quadcopter drones have a short flight range and in Saturday’s attack they were believed to have taken off from inside Iran. The origin of the drones involved in Saturday’s attack was not yet clear but because of Isfahan’s distance from Iran’s international borders the attack was also likely organized from inside Iran.”

[Vermont Lt]

How ‘bout the “drone” that caused the “earthquake.” That must have been a big damned drone.

I guess Russia will have to rely on NORK drones starting next week.

Of course Iran says that the bomb just blew up a slum. I think it’s a slum now…lol.

[BeauBo]

“I’ll guess Ukraine behind the drone attack. With US “assistance.””

It could be a coalition. The Saudis are also mortal enemies of the Iranian regime.

[FtrPilot]

My guess is the full story will never be revealed.

BeauBo: It could be a coalition.

From a previous Speedy post: ... the attack was also likely organized from inside Iran.

A couple of days ago, Speedy posted a drone link that showed UKF had a drone that held up a net that an Iranian drone flew into and crashed (most likely with little damage to the Iranian drone).

Perhaps UKR has figured out how to reprogram and refuel the downed drones.

The challenge is shipping the reprogrammed drones to the Iranian partisans.

My latest theory is UKR supplied Iranian drones. International arms traffickers transferred them to Iranian partisans with "coalition" help.

But...who belongs to the "coalition"???

[BeauBo]

“But...who belongs to the “coalition”?”

That was total speculation on my part, just to keep an open mind to possibilities.

For agents on the ground within Iran; the Saudis, Israelis and Americans have long prioritized Iran as top target for their Intelligence Services. Now they have seriously pissed off the Ukrainians as well.

[FtrPilot]

That was total speculation on my part, just to keep an open mind to possibilities.

I know & thanks.

Speedy has posted some links that indicate Israel (most likely Mossad) was involved.

My belief is that UKR would not use any any equipment, such as TU-141s, that could be tied to Ukraine.

Capturing Iranian drones and firing them back at Iran is a great idea.

As always, your commentary is greatly appreciated.