It seems to be shaping up that way, after holding so long, and the Russians losing so many lives assaulting it. The Russians have been losing an SU-25 Close Air Support jet per day for the last few days.
Posted on 01/28/2023 8:25:54 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
“To Fix Its Problems in Ukraine, Russia Turns to the Architect of the War”
“President Vladimir V. Putin is on his third overall commander in Ukraine. But his military’s fundamental issues have not been addressed, Western officials say.”
“Gen. Valery V. Gerasimov, the architect of President Vladimir V. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, took over the day-to-day running of Russia’s war effort this month by convincing his boss that his predecessor was too passive, American and European officials say.
But General Gerasimov’s turbocharged strategy is what led to Russia’s problems to begin with, and Moscow still does not have the troops, ammunition or equipment that military officials say it needs to mass the big offensive promised by the country’s senior military leader.
Since General Gerasimov replaced Gen. Sergei Surovikin, who was in the job for only three months, Russia’s military leadership has focused on day-to-day tactical issues like whether troops should travel in civilian vehicles and the dangers of their cellphone use, Western officials say. But while those matters have certainly bedeviled service members, there is no evidence that the Russian military has begun to address its fundamental problems, like shortages of ammunition and well-trained troops, despite the musical chairs of generals, according to these officials.”
“The American M109 paladin self-propelled guns that were promised in the last aid package have already been spotted in Poland.”
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1619031019327483905
Good for Ukraine.
“Ex-general Pavel wins Czech vote, with 75% of votes counted: statistics office”
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1619339777383202818
I’m just here to see if anyone posts besides Speedy
You’ve admitted you aren’t an American.
So who cares if you are here or not.
“Turkey sending tanks?”
Turkey is a bit of a tank powerhouse, within NATO.
Well, he is better than Andrej Babis, but he isn’t conservative. In the first round I voted for Pavel Fischer, who is conservative. I didn’t vote in the second round knowing that General Pavel was going to win anyway.
Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Jan 27, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
———————————————————————————————————————
Extras:
-—> Ukraine Situation Report: Kyiv Improving Airfields Anticipating Western Fighters <——
Ukraine’s Air Force spokesman says work is underway to upgrade airfields for Western fighter jets even though none have been promised yet.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-kyiv-improving-airfields-anticipating-modern-jets
Excerpts:
... Ukraine has yet to receive any solid offers of modern fighter jets from allies like the U.S., France, the Netherlands, Denmark and others. But it’s preparing airfields across the country in anticipation of deliveries of multi-role jets ...
But any improvements likely involve upgrading the quality of operating areas and possibly lengthening runways. Ukraine’s Soviet-designed tactical jets were built to operate in conditions that can be considered positively austere when compared to their Western counterparts. The bases they operate from reflect this flexibility. too.
As for the aircraft, they have sturdier landing gear, mud guards on their nose wheels, in some cases even intake doors that protect the aircraft from ingesting damaging debris during taxiing.
Most Western designs are made to operate from much more pristine surfaces that are meticulously cleared of even small pieces of debris. So if Ukraine wants Western fighters, it needs infrastructure that meets their operational needs.
The list of pilots chosen to train on F-16s, should they be provided, has been prepared for a while. At a media briefing last week, Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Col. Yuri Ignat said that $100 million had already been earmarked for pilot training, though he did not say who was picking up the tab. He also said the type of aircraft Ukraine would likely receive has already been determined, without stating what kind.
—
-—> Air Mobility Command Boss Predicts War With China In 2025 In Dire Memo <——
A USAF memo calls for aggressive efforts to prepare for a major fight with China, including orders to ‘aim for the head’ in firearms training.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/usaf-general-warns-of-war-with-china-over-taiwan-in-2025
Excerpts:
The head of the U.S. Air Force’s Air Mobility Command, Gen. Mike Minihan, has issued an ominous warning about a looming future high-end conflict against China, likely over Taiwan.
I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me we will fight in 2025. Xi secured his third term and set his war council in October 2022,” Minihan’s memo says bluntly by way of introduction. “Taiwan’s presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a reason. United States’ presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a distracted America. Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025.”
“I’m not interested in being the best Air Force on the planet, I’m interested in being the most lethal force the world has ever known.”
“So I’m going to make everybody nervous here,” the AMC commander had said at the beginning of a fiery keynote address, titled “The Mobility Manifesto,” which he gave at the Air & Space Forces Association’s 2022 Air, Space & Cyber Conference last September. “I’m not bound to the stage, I’m not bound to a script. I’m untethered as of now.”
There are very real concerns on a number of levels about the Air Force’s ability, in particular, to conduct and sustain high-tempo operations while under attack. This is driving the development of new expeditionary and distributed deployment concepts of operations within the service, currently known collectively as Agile Combat Employment (ACE), as well as expanded base defense capabilities.
[Sounds like he is trying to make real war fighters out of the troops, even to M4 training.]
———————————————————————————————————————
••Day 338.
Today there is some good news.
In the Vuhledar area, the Ukrainians capitalized on their yesterday’s counterattack and developed their success further.
The Russians were pushed from the city along multiple vectors, and right now, the Ukrainians are preparing for a decisive push in the countryside.
Losing it would mean that the Russian offensive completely failed, and they would need to start from scratch, but without the element of surprise.
Last time I told you that the Russians took control of the countryside south of Vuhledar, burnt the hospital buildings on the corner of the city using thermobaric artillery, and then, under cover of smoke and supporting fire, entered the city.
I also told you that the Ukrainians conducted a counterattack and crushed Russian flanks from the north.
The counterattack was successful, the Ukrainians established control over half of the countryside and completely immobilized the Russians.
The latest reports suggest that the Russians initially planned to assault the city at night, but because they were now forced to engage in positional fights, the plan was disrupted, and they stayed in one place.
The Ukrainians took advantage of the situation and reinforced Vuhledar even more.
As a result, Russian sources started reporting that assaulting Ukrainian positions became infeasible. One source claimed that the concentration is higher than 3 companies per 1 km.
Ukrainian artillery has also adjusted and is engaging in counter battery combat, as well as the support of the infantry near the city.
For example, due to heavy fire and the infeasibility of developing an offensive operation, the Russians have reportedly abandoned the hospital and even the southern countryside.
This countryside is comprised of around two dozen sparsely located houses, and given the winter conditions, there is simply no place to hide.
In order to reduce the supply and support of the main assault group that is still maintaining a presence in the northern countryside, Ukrainian artillery is targeting the areas of forces concentrations in Pavlivka, Mykilske, and other settlements.
Some sources suggest that the Ukrainians also used HIMARS to target warehouses with equipment tens of kilometers behind the zero line in order to prevent further escalation of the Russian offensive.
So far, the Ukrainians managed to break the momentum, undermine the stability of Russian positions that they wanted to use to develop their offensive, and ensured that the city was under full Ukrainian control.
This is the third day in a row where the Ukrainian General Staff is reporting around 800 Russians killed per day.
And although the number concerns the whole front line, it has significantly increased since the Russians launched their attacks in the Zaporizhzhia region.
If the Ukrainians manage to push the Russians out of this northern countryside, it will be a complete failure for the Russians, and they will need to abort the mission.
However, a lot of analysts started speculating - Ukrainian, Western, as well as Russian - that the Russians did not launch this series of attacks in the Zaporizhzhia region to win.
The main goal of these attacks may be to draw Ukrainian forces to this region and make sure that they keep forces in all four regions by sporadically attacking along the whole contact line in order to undermine Ukrainian capabilities in the Donbas region.
The reason why they decided to prioritize the Luhansk region likely lies in the quality of troops that they allocated there.
The Ukrainians got very close to Kreminna and Svatove, meaning that once Western tanks arrive, it would be much easier to create a breakthrough here than in Zaporizhzhia.
In order to preserve at least some buffer, the Russians started deploying their most trained and professional troops, which they do not want to lose.
One of the ways to achieve it could be applying pressure from the south because, in the south, they have recently relocated a lot of mobilized soldiers that they can afford to lose.
And judging by the footage of the attacks in the Orikhiv direction, it loosely fits the description because the mobilized soldiers here were sent through the fields almost with no equipment and very little artillery support.
The same cannot be said about Vuhledar, although their probability of failure here is very high.
If drawing the forces away from the east is really the goal (and some sources do indicate that certain troops were sent from Druzhkivka), such a costly strategy will further demoralize Russian soldiers and undermine any future operation in this region, whether it is offensive or defensive because the soldiers understand that they are expendable.
If the Ukrainians manage to retain control over key positions while waiting for the proper conditions for the next counteroffensive, such a climate inside the Russian army will help the Ukrainians to breach Russian defense more easily and penetrate defensive orders more deeply.
—
[Denys reports that the Russians are aiming to cut UA supplies to Bakhmut by capturing the village of Chasiv War and forcing UA to leave Bakhmut. Ukraine is the largest country in Europe and the loss of Bakhmut is insignificant, but for every town taken, Russia looses 10s of thousands of soldiers.
He says that right now Russia has nothing to stop the UA from crossing the Dnieper River at Nova Kahovka, and that maybe the point of attack in the Spring.
Long range missiles are crucial for the Spring offensive to take out major supply dumps beyond the range of HIMARS and others. The goal of 2023 should to cut the Russian army into two pieces.]
—
Some YouTube videos FWIW, curtesy of RevMom:
-—> Our soldiers are dying for moronism! Interview with a deceived Russian private <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fvBLZDbYg6c
-—> Cameramen felt sick! Unpacking Ukrainian and Russian dry rations and first aid kits <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V2xKmkhx8f0
-—> Russia About To Declare A “Real” War With The West? Here’s What They Say In Interceptions <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1hgb6xQNTA
-—> Mission: Crossing the Dnieper River at Nova Kahovka that Denys referred to above at about 4.25 min mark - one wounded UA casualty, 12+ Orcs dead, 1 Command Post destroyed and intel captured. <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gSkP3uT2VM
Burning up the last vestiges of their elite troops - Naval Infantry only had 20,000 troops to begin with.
Abrams image first posted in March 2008 of a scuttled Abrams.
It seems to be shaping up that way, after holding so long, and the Russians losing so many lives assaulting it. The Russians have been losing an SU-25 Close Air Support jet per day for the last few days.
“The EU’s ban on Russian oil products from February 5 could spell more turmoil for the Kremlin as China and India are unlikely to buy refined fuels once sold to the EU, unlike the crude oil they snapped up.”
“The EU’s ban on Russian oil products from February 5 could spell more turmoil for the Kremlin”
It may also impact domestic Russian supplies of refined products, as refinery runs are disrupted.
😂😂😂
“Zelensky congratulates retired Czech general Pavel on winning presidential election.
“I will be glad to work closely for the benefit of the peoples of Ukraine and the Czech Republic and in the interests of a united Europe,” Zelensky wrote on Twitter.”
“Hearing rumors of a possible HIMARS strike on a railroad depot in #Ilovaisk earlier tonight...”
https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1619431158068158464
“Another burned tank of the Russian naval forces trying to break through to Vuhledar. “
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1619397337755041799
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