Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Jan 24, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
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Extras:
-—> Ukraine Situation Report: Kyiv Claims New Combat Aircraft Has Been Determined <——
The Ukrainian Air Force spokesman didn’t say what type of aircraft, but did say money has been set aside for pilot training already.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-kyiv-claims-new-combat-aircraft-has-been-determined
Excerpts:
Ukrainian pilots have visited the U.S. and the specific type of aircraft to be provided to Ukraine has already been selected, the top spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force claimed on Tuesday.
Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuri Ignat, “Our military pilots went to the United States, funds were allocated for the training of our pilots,”
... a Ukrainian defense and military expert in Kyiv told The War Zone on Tuesday that “based on the concept of the Ukrainian Air Force development, we are looking for a multi-role aircraft during the first phase. It could be some variant of the F-16 fighter jet.”
That lines up with what Ignat previously told Air Force Magazine. He said that two 12-aircraft squadrons of F-16s, plus reserves, would be sufficient to help turn the tables against Russian airpower.
Ukraine, Ignat told the magazine, has at least 30 pilots with sufficient English-language skills ready to travel to the United States for fighter pilot training along with the corresponding engineers and maintenance teams, he said.
“To learn the first stage of takeoff and landing and flying from point A to point B, it will take a few weeks, but to learn how to fight on it, to learn how to use missiles, we will take around six months,”
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-—> Up To 50 M1 Abrams Tanks Could Be Headed To Ukraine: Reports (Updated) <——
U.S. Abrams tanks for Ukraine would reportedly be part of a larger deal that also includes Leopard 2s from Germany and others.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/up-to-50-m1-abrams-tanks-could-be-headed-to-ukraine-reports
Excerpts:
The US administration is considering a new military aid package for Ukraine that could include around 30 M1 tanks.
What specific M1 Abrams variants or subvariants might be under consideration for Ukraine is unclear. Based on other American military aid for Ukraine to date, they are likely to be older M1A1 or M1A2 models. These tanks all have 120mm main guns, but differ in the specific configurations of their armor, sensors, communications systems, and other equipment. The U.S. Army has thousands of earlier generation M1 tanks in storage. The U.S. Marine Corps has been divesting all of its Abrams tanks as part of a restructuring of its forces.
... certain aspects of the Abrams are also very sensitive and certain features are not included in variants exported to allies and partners.
Add this for those that dis not see it:
Posted by Zhang Fei on the “U.S. Leans Toward Providing Abrams Tanks to Ukraine” [shortened, minor editing for readability]:
Main M1 criticism:
M1 Abrams are unlike any other main battle tank in the world - maintenance and logistics would be a bear for the Ukrainians. Unless American maintenance and logistics personnel are provided....
Response 1:
Actually, that is the opposite of the reality. Russian junk is a bear to maintain, because they view that junk and the people who operate it, as disposable. Good design is expensive, both to create and manufacture. The Russian philosophy is to turn out mountains of junk that will just make it to the fight before being destroyed along with their crew and replaced by the next wave.
Response 2:
A tanker who spent time in Kuwait within the confines of an M1 during Desert Storm talks maintenance: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1616618174467670018.html
I recently posted something about @MarkHertling after he posted things about the M1 tank. things that are 100% untrue. I may have been a little harsh about my reply to him. Here is the simple truth, we are here to help Ukraine, not say things that may hurt them.
Many people in the political world do not want to give Ukraine tanks for political reasons ... fine, if that’s the case please say it out loud. That’s fine I can respect that. I don’t agree but who am I? No one.
Some people don’t want to give Ukraine tanks due to cost. .. OK 100 tanks + parts + training + support + ammo is about 2.5 billion. Got it that - it can buy a lot of HIMARS rockets ... if that’s the issue, then fine at least say that.
BUT most are saying things that are totally untrue, and a simple Google search or talking to people in the military that know what they are talking about would fix in 10 min.
Fuel:
The M1 can run on ANYTHING from gas to oil, the best fuels are JP4,5, 8, and diesel. the new versions of the tanks have a APU installed to run the tank systems and keep the batteries charged.
This makes the M1 more fuel efficient than the Leo 2 overall - that’s right, THE M1 WITH THE APU IS MORE FUEL EFFICIENT THAN THE LEO 2.
Weight:
The current M1A2 is 71 tons, the Leopard A6 is 68.9 tons ... 2 tons different. If a bridge can take a Leopard it can take a M1, and Ukraine has bought a bunch of French pre-made 100 ton bridges that are being installed all over Ukraine right now.
Maintenance:
The M1 motor has 1 moving part ... the Leo 2 has over 200 in its motor, and the motor lasts about 1/2 the time of the M1s. It takes less time to change a M1 motor than a Leopard 2.
Also as we have seen with the (GER) PZH-2000 and the (US) M109, the US 109 is fixed in the field for everything; the PZH-2000 has to be sent out of country due to it being German and too complex to be fixed in Ukraine (due to its turret having to be removed for service).
Parts:
The Leopard 2 parts CAN ONLY BE MADE IN GERMANY (due to contracting). So the stockpiles of parts are in Germany. That’s why people are reluctant to send those tanks to Ukraine. Germany will sit on the needed parts and after a week or 2 the tanks wont work any more.
Major parts warehouses for M1 are Permisance, Honenfelds Germany, Poland, Egypt, Saudi, Aust, etc.
ANY part needed is just a DHL/C17 flight to Poland, a short MI-17 hop to the front in Ukraine ... anything (part) short of a motor is doable in just 2-3 hrs.
Training:
Please don’t bring up training. The Ukraine 1st Tank Brigade with old T-64s kept the best of the Russian army from Kyiv for 2 months. Probably the most experienced crews in the world right now.
Again - if Iraqi, Saudi, Egypt troops can use the M1... My God don’t make me say it ... in the hands of Ukraine troops (again probably some of the best in the world right now) will have no issues. So please no.
Upkeep and Maintenance:
Ukraine is one of the FEW countries in the world that has made there own modern tanks so upkeep is NOT a issue. The M1 is one of the most easiest tanks in the world to keep running with a motivated crew; it’s proven that Ukraine troops are motivated - the motor, is a jet engine made for fighter aircraft.
In Europe, the countries that can make jet aircraft: UK, GER, IT, SW, and Ukraine. Ukraine has plenty of exp with jet engines, but most would be fixed by GD civilian techs in Poland.
Ammo:
No shortage, over 1 million rounds for the 120mm are in Europe, and thank God most are not Swiss. Ammo is NOT a problem.
So in closing please if anyone can retweet this to @MarkHertling, I would love to have a talk with him on why he still thinks why the Ukraine forces should not get the M1.
Again, I got it politics, cost, etc - but be up front about it, there is NO practical reason why the M1 should not go to Ukraine, and if you don’t know, that’s OK to, that’s what NCOs are here for, to help officers figure things out. I am willing to help.
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Leopard 2
... authorities in Berlin have decided to send their own tranche of Leopard 2 tanks to the Ukrainian armed forces. This could include at least one company’s worth of Leopard 2A6 variants, according to that story. The current organization of a German tank company is not immediately clear, but typical company-sized Western tank units have around 14 tanks in total.
The Leopard 2A6 battle tank | THE MISSION | Special (English subtitles) 74.58 min w/emphasis on scenery, sunsets & camping.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4GRv2VXB9k
When it comes to the 120mm gun-armed Leopard 2s, the pool available for transfer to Ukraine is dominated by A4 variants and subvariants.
Among other things, Leopard 2A4s feature older-style armor packages. Compared to the A4, the Leopard 2A6s that Germany is reportedly considering handing over to Ukraine have additional armor protection on the turret and the hull, elements of which had been first introduced on the interceding A5 version. They also have an improved main gun with a longer barrel and various suspension and drivetrain upgrades.
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••Day 335.
Today there is a lot of news from the south.
Here, the Ukrainians managed to break the momentum of Russian advance around Orikhiv and even launch a series of successful counterattacks.
The Ukrainians not only reestablished control over some lost positions, but also pushed the Russians further than where they had started.
In an attempt to save the situation, the Russians sent a lot of reconnaissance groups along the entire front line to find at least some weak spots, but so far, there is no indication that they were successful.
In the Orikhiv direction, the Ukrainians managed to not only stabilize the front line, but also expand the area under their control.
Last time I told you that the Russians failed to attack the central part of the Orikhiv defense line and completely changed their plan. Their main focus quickly became the least protected areas, such as Kamianske.
The reason why Kamianske is easier to attack lies in the geography of the region. First of all, it is located in the corner between the bay and the river. And secondly, it is located in the lowlands.
In order to exploit their tactical advantage to the fullest, one Russian group fired at the Ukrainians from the opposite side of the bay while another group tried to attack it from the flank.
Unfortunately for the Russians, there is a small river that stretches east from the bay and creates a natural obstacle. The Ukrainians leveraged this barrier and successfully repelled the Russian flank attack.
The Russians stepped back and engaged their artillery in an attempt to undermine Ukrainian defense along this small river and try to breach it next time.
When it comes to Novoandriivka and Novodanylivka, yesterday I told you that after the Russians failed to take them by storm, they switched to lighter engagement with the purpose of gathering reconnaissance.
Today, the Russians once again attempted to storm these two villages, but were brutally defeated. Even Russian sources reported that the Russians had zero success here.
When it comes to the eastern part of this region, the Ukrainians took the initiative and conducted a successful counterattack.
As mentioned previously, Mala Tokmachka is a very powerful Ukrainian fortification, so the Ukrainians were able to quickly create an attack fist and attack Russian positions while they were still regrouping.
As a result, the Ukrainians established full control over Bilohorka and pushed the Russians out of Pokrovka, meaning that they not just got closer to the Russians but also created an additional buffer. This will significantly impede any further Russian actions.
The lack of progress in the Orikhiv direction forced the Russians to rapidly search for possible weak spots in the Huliaipole direction because today, the Russians conducted a series of small attacks here. The targets of these attacks became Chervone and Malynivka.
The reason why the Russians picked these two settlements is simple - they are located to the north of the river, so any progress here would allow them to cut off the Ukrainians from the north.
So far, Russian actions were reconnaissance in nature, so there were no changes to the front line, however, in preparation for the possible assault, the Ukrainians supplied this region with anti-tank systems and man-portable air-defense systems.
In the Vuhledar direction, the Russians seem to be preparing for the same broad attack that happened several days ago around Orikhiv because the actions that they took today are exactly the same.
Even though the Russians controlled a few villages around Vuhledar, there were still a lot of grey zones in between, where maintaining a permanent presence was extremely problematic due to the extensive Ukrainian fire control.
Nonetheless, today the Russians moved into these two grey zones in order to get as close to Vuhledar as possible: the Russians entered the farms to the north of Pavlivka, and they also entered the residential area between Pavlivka and Mykilske. As you can see, these two positions are cut off by the river from the main Russian positions.
They are also located in the lowlands, so the only reason why they would enter them is to immediately conduct an attack from two sides, which we can expect even tomorrow.
The Ukrainians here have an absolute tactical advantage: they control multiple high-ground positions, and they have big and powerful fortifications in the form of high-rise buildings, so attacking them was previously proved to be suicidal.
Overall, the Russians are desperate to make the Zaporizhzhia offensive operation work because once the Ukrainians receive western tanks, it may be too late. Tanks are indispensable for an offensive operation and no number of armored vehicles can substitute them.
Right now, the Ukrainians do not have enough machinery to conduct large-scale offensive actions because it can severely compromise all other fronts. But they are expected to receive enough of them in the near future, which for the Russians potentially means the complete loss of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.
All the Ukrainians need to do is to penetrate Russian defense by 60 km again and cut the Russian group in half. So far, the Ukrainians are successfully holding the line, which preserves the opportunity to realize this plan in the future.
