“Putin’s military command reshuffle reveals a power struggle at the heart of the Ukraine war”
“Russian President Vladimir Putin’s latest reshuffle of the top brass in charge of Ukraine operations reveals a deeper power struggle between Moscow’s military command and its domestic detractors, analysts say.
One of the most prominent and powerful critics of Moscow’s strategy in Ukraine is Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group — a private military company fighting in Ukraine. Prigozhin has slammed defense chiefs for a series of humiliating losses and retreats during the war.
His criticism seemed to bear fruit with the October appointment of Gen. Sergei Surovikin as the overall battlefield commander for Russian troops in Ukraine. Prigozhin praised the designation and described Surovikin — nicknamed “General Armageddon — as “the most able commander in the Russian army.”
Surovikin later oversaw a massive aerial bombardment of Ukraine, damaging a large proportion of its energy infrastructure at the onset of winter. He also had the unenviable task of suggesting (in what appeared to be a choreographed meeting on Russian television) to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu that Russian troops should withdraw from a part of Kherson in southern Ukraine in November — an unpopular move that was nevertheless endorsed by Prigozhin.
Surovikin’s mandate has ended just three months later. With few territorial gains to show in Ukraine, he was on Wednesday replaced with commander Gen. Valery Gerasimov and appointed as his deputy, the Russian defense ministry said. Gerasimov is a Putin loyalist and was the highest ranking uniformed officer in Russia in his previous role as chief of Russia’s armed forces.
Analysts say the replacement could point to Moscow’s shifting sentiment toward Prigozhin and the Wagner Group, on top of Putin’s dissatisfaction with the lack of tactical advances in the Moscow-styled “special military operation” in Ukraine.
Long-term Putin associate and ally Prigozhin has become more outspoken during the war jas his estimated 50,000-men strong private military company — which also recruits from Russian prisons — has achieved successes on the battlefield.
Nonetheless, Prigozhin’s criticism of Russia’s military commanders and frequent boasts over the Wagner Group’s triumphs have raised heckles in Moscow.”
Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Jan 12, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
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Extra:
-—> Ukraine Situation Report: Tank Deals Should Be Approved Says Germany’s Vice Chancellor <——
The second most senior official in Berlin says other countries should be allowed to send German-made tanks to Ukraine if they want.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-tank-deals-should-be-approved-says-germanys-vice-chancellor
Excerpt:
German officials also say that the Polish government has not even made a formal request to re-export any of its Leopard 2s to Ukraine. It remains unclear whether Poland is prepared to move ahead in sending those tanks to Ukraine unilaterally, or even in a coalition that does not include Germany directly.
... if Russian forces do eventually capture Soledar and Bakhmut, the victory could be pyrrhic, especially for the Russian mercenary firm Wagner. There have been suggestions that Prigozhin is hoping to use Wagner to secure a victory to strengthen his own political position in Russia and gain control over lucrative salt and gypsum mines in this area of Ukraine. The caverns there can also be used for secure munitions storage and as bunkers, in general.
“Out of its force of nearly 50,000 mercenaries (including 40,000 convicts), the company [Wagner] has sustained over 4,100 killed and 10,000 wounded, including over 1,000 killed between late November and early December near Bakhmut,” ... If the cost for each 36 square miles of Ukraine [the approximate size of Bakhmut] is thousands of Russians over seven months.”
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••Day 323.
The most intense fights continue to take place in Soledar.
Today the front line here evened out, and the Ukrainians established their next defense line along the railways.
This new defense line leverages the local geography and creates a series of natural obstacles that are expected to slow down the pace of Russian advancement. Nonetheless, this defense line is not perfect, and here is why.
Last time I told you that the Ukrainians have retreated from the central part of Soledar to the west in order to escape the imminent encirclement.
The encirclement was imminent because, after the fall of Yakovlivka, the Russians gained access to the local heights and, despite the Ukrainian’s efforts, gradually expanded it around Soledar.
I also told you that I do not expect the Ukrainians to hold the second salt mine area for too long, because it is very hard to deliver supplies there, as many segments of the roads leading to this industrial area are under Russian fire control.
Today, the Ukrainians stepped back to the third salt mine area, supporting my analysis. The evidence of the further retreat served a footage posted by the Wagner forces where they have been walking through the streets slightly to the north of the salt mines. The main Ukrainian defense line right now goes through the Sil station and the third salt mine.
Many Russian sources are saying that the Ukrainians are preparing a massive counterattack. For example, some say that the Ukrainians are deploying their strategic reserve in order to conduct a counterattack from the north of Soledar.
Other sources say that the Ukrainians have already conducted a counterattack today, and it was from the south.
In this supposed counterattack, the Ukrainians deployed combined units of several airmobile brigades and tried to attack from Paraskoviivka, but Russian Air Force allegedly detected and destroyed hundreds of Ukrainian troops and a lot of western armored vehicles. However, this is completely inconsistent with the changes that we can observe on the ground.
If the Ukrainians planned to return control over the central part of the region, why would they simultaneously retreat from the second salt mine area? This industrial zone would be an essential object that would be leveraged by the Ukrainian forces.
For this reason, I don’t think that the Ukrainians have tried to break into the central part of Soledar or that they are even preparing to do it. It is true that the concentration of the Ukrainian forces to the north of Soledar has increased, but the reasons are different.
Apart from holding the last two positions in Soledar, which are the salt mine and Sil station, the Ukrainians are trying to build their defense line along the railways. There are advantages and disadvantages to holding this line.
On the one hand, the Ukrainians are stopping the front line from the collapse, which means that the Russians still have to fight for each and every defensive position, and nothing is given away for free.
The Ukrainians established their positions along the railway embankment, and embankments proved to be a significant impediment in this war. The settlements are also not too sparsely located, which allows having more covered positions and small warehouses with ammunition and supplies. On the other hand, the Russians are still controlling the heights, which allows them to have a lot of supply roads under fire control.
In general, this defense line serves as a great impediment on the technical level, although it gives no significant advantages on the tactical level. As of now, the Russians are preparing to attack Krasna Hora and Parakoviivka.
They reportedly got quite close to these settlements, allowing them to establish direct fire control over some segments of the important supply roads. Some sources say that the Russians deployed their airborne forces for these specific tasks, not the Wagners.
The Russians previously were not able to advance on Krasna Hora from the east, which is why they focused more on Pidhorodne, but now, with Pidhorodne under their control, the Russians have launched several reconnaissance groups to the south of Krasna Hora.
Overall, the Battle for Soledar has almost ended. The Ukrainians gradually retreated to the next defense line and did not allow the front line to collapse.
Russian forces will likely continue storming the Sil station and salt mine with the same intensity, but unlikely for too long because these positions are quite detached from the city and do not allow the block-by-block advancement while being under cover of the surrounding buildings.
Hopefully, we will see stabilization of the front line in the next several days
Interesting podcast episode released yesterday.
EPISODE SUMMARY
Since the start of the Russian invasion last February, it has been a commonly accepted wisdom that Ukraine will not try to retake Crimea - an action that many in the West worry will trigger an escalation - until it has taken back all of the territory lost since February 2022.
In this episode, Dmitri Alperovitch once again talks to Sergii Grabskyi, a Reserve Colonel in the Ukrainian military, who challenges that notion. Sergii makes a compelling case that Ukraine is likely to try to retake Crimea as part of an upcoming new offensive.
Other topics covered in an in-depth conversation about the state of the war:
- Why Ukraine is fighting so hard for Bakhmut despite taking devastating losses there
- Why Kreminna and Svatove are even more important than Bakhmut
- The vital importance of the barely noticed fight at Vulhledar in the South
- Is it possible for Ukrainian forces to cross the Dnipro river
- Why the latest supplies of western Infantry Fighting Vehicles and tanks may not help as much as many think
- How Ukraine is maintaining the Noah’s Ark of western weapons donations
- Why Ukraine has not attempted to destroy the North Crimean Canal and the real situation with the water supplies to Crimea
- Why there is only one real general in the Russian military
- Where is Ukraine expecting a new Russian offensive
- Why the stories of Russian forces being unmotivated to fight is largely a myth
- Why Kharkiv remains a key priority for Russia
- Why Ukraine is not worried about a new offensive from Belarus
- and much more
https://podcast.silverado.org/episodes/why-ukraine-may-try-to-retake-crimea-next
- Russian advances near Soledar and Bakhmut contradict “Ukrainian offensive momentum” narrative;
- Russian operations are consistent with the “demilitarization” objective for the special military operation;
- Bakhmut & Soledar are fortified cities along one of Ukraine’s last defensive lines in the Donbass region;
- West is announcing plans to send Western main battle tanks including Challenger 2 and Leopard 2 tanks;
- Challenger 2 and Leopard 2 tanks use different ammunition & both require an additional crew member (loader) increasing training demands for Ukrainian forces;
- The large variety of equipment the West is sending will create additional burdens for Ukrainian forces without any notable benefit;
- Western main battle tanks have proven to be vulnerable to (Russian-made) modern anti-tank weapons even under relatively ideal conditions;
- Ukrainian forces will be going into battle without sufficient artillery or air cover and facing off against Russian forces reinforced with an additional 300k men, new defenses, and an influx of new weaponry;
@ChuckPfarrer 4h "SOLEDAR /1330 UTC 13 JAN/ Wagner PMCs are reported to have expanded control over residential & industrial sections of the city. UKR forces have concentrated efforts to defend several key locations, notably the vicinity of the school, hospital and the access to mines 1 & 7."
@ChuckPfarrer 1h "BAKHMUT/ 1400 UTC 13 JAN/ First reports of a RU breakthrough at Kurdiumivka occurred on 12 JAN. RU forces have advanced NW along the watercourse and are likely intent on cutting the vital H-32 HWY, UKR UAV directed artillery has taken advancing RU units under sustained fire."
Russia Declares “Full Control” Over Soledar In 1st Major Win In Months
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-declares-full-control-over-soledar-1st-major-win-months
The fall of Bakhmut should happen soon, too.
@visegrad24 8h
BREAKING:
A major explosion has just destroyed the Amber Grid pipeline connecting Lithuania with Latvia and Estonia.
