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Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Jan 12, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)

War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU

Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).

(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)

••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].

-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/

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Extra:
-—> Ukraine Situation Report: Tank Deals Should Be Approved Says Germany’s Vice Chancellor <——
The second most senior official in Berlin says other countries should be allowed to send German-made tanks to Ukraine if they want.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-tank-deals-should-be-approved-says-germanys-vice-chancellor

Excerpt:
German officials also say that the Polish government has not even made a formal request to re-export any of its Leopard 2s to Ukraine. It remains unclear whether Poland is prepared to move ahead in sending those tanks to Ukraine unilaterally, or even in a coalition that does not include Germany directly.

... if Russian forces do eventually capture Soledar and Bakhmut, the victory could be pyrrhic, especially for the Russian mercenary firm Wagner. There have been suggestions that Prigozhin is hoping to use Wagner to secure a victory to strengthen his own political position in Russia and gain control over lucrative salt and gypsum mines in this area of Ukraine. The caverns there can also be used for secure munitions storage and as bunkers, in general.

“Out of its force of nearly 50,000 mercenaries (including 40,000 convicts), the company [Wagner] has sustained over 4,100 killed and 10,000 wounded, including over 1,000 killed between late November and early December near Bakhmut,” ... If the cost for each 36 square miles of Ukraine [the approximate size of Bakhmut] is thousands of Russians over seven months.”

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••Day 323.

The most intense fights continue to take place in Soledar.

Today the front line here evened out, and the Ukrainians established their next defense line along the railways.

This new defense line leverages the local geography and creates a series of natural obstacles that are expected to slow down the pace of Russian advancement. Nonetheless, this defense line is not perfect, and here is why.

Last time I told you that the Ukrainians have retreated from the central part of Soledar to the west in order to escape the imminent encirclement.

The encirclement was imminent because, after the fall of Yakovlivka, the Russians gained access to the local heights and, despite the Ukrainian’s efforts, gradually expanded it around Soledar.

I also told you that I do not expect the Ukrainians to hold the second salt mine area for too long, because it is very hard to deliver supplies there, as many segments of the roads leading to this industrial area are under Russian fire control.

Today, the Ukrainians stepped back to the third salt mine area, supporting my analysis. The evidence of the further retreat served a footage posted by the Wagner forces where they have been walking through the streets slightly to the north of the salt mines. The main Ukrainian defense line right now goes through the Sil station and the third salt mine.

Many Russian sources are saying that the Ukrainians are preparing a massive counterattack. For example, some say that the Ukrainians are deploying their strategic reserve in order to conduct a counterattack from the north of Soledar.

Other sources say that the Ukrainians have already conducted a counterattack today, and it was from the south.

In this supposed counterattack, the Ukrainians deployed combined units of several airmobile brigades and tried to attack from Paraskoviivka, but Russian Air Force allegedly detected and destroyed hundreds of Ukrainian troops and a lot of western armored vehicles. However, this is completely inconsistent with the changes that we can observe on the ground.

If the Ukrainians planned to return control over the central part of the region, why would they simultaneously retreat from the second salt mine area? This industrial zone would be an essential object that would be leveraged by the Ukrainian forces.

For this reason, I don’t think that the Ukrainians have tried to break into the central part of Soledar or that they are even preparing to do it. It is true that the concentration of the Ukrainian forces to the north of Soledar has increased, but the reasons are different.

Apart from holding the last two positions in Soledar, which are the salt mine and Sil station, the Ukrainians are trying to build their defense line along the railways. There are advantages and disadvantages to holding this line.

On the one hand, the Ukrainians are stopping the front line from the collapse, which means that the Russians still have to fight for each and every defensive position, and nothing is given away for free.

The Ukrainians established their positions along the railway embankment, and embankments proved to be a significant impediment in this war. The settlements are also not too sparsely located, which allows having more covered positions and small warehouses with ammunition and supplies. On the other hand, the Russians are still controlling the heights, which allows them to have a lot of supply roads under fire control.

In general, this defense line serves as a great impediment on the technical level, although it gives no significant advantages on the tactical level. As of now, the Russians are preparing to attack Krasna Hora and Parakoviivka.

They reportedly got quite close to these settlements, allowing them to establish direct fire control over some segments of the important supply roads. Some sources say that the Russians deployed their airborne forces for these specific tasks, not the Wagners.

The Russians previously were not able to advance on Krasna Hora from the east, which is why they focused more on Pidhorodne, but now, with Pidhorodne under their control, the Russians have launched several reconnaissance groups to the south of Krasna Hora.

Overall, the Battle for Soledar has almost ended. The Ukrainians gradually retreated to the next defense line and did not allow the front line to collapse.

Russian forces will likely continue storming the Sil station and salt mine with the same intensity, but unlikely for too long because these positions are quite detached from the city and do not allow the block-by-block advancement while being under cover of the surrounding buildings.

Hopefully, we will see stabilization of the front line in the next several days