The massive releases from the Twitter files clearly show the depth of corruption and desire to control narrative for power’s sake is disgusting and shows just how deep the swamp is. It suggests that conventional means of cleaning the swamp are unlikely to succeed and that a CW2 scenario is building in the upcoming years.
Globalism / Great Reset –
See Cancel Culture for outworking of the WEF’s stated goal to control what information is posted on social media and the necessary censoring of ‘misinformation’ these globalists believe is necessary. I’ve seen some consider the WEF as being a paper tiger as a non-governmental authority – yet governments all over the world are implementing its goals and plans.
The Biden administration’s Consumer Product Safety Commission is considering a nationwide ban on gas-burning stoves following a new study that claimed the appliances emit harmful pollution that has been linked to asthma in children, Bloomberg reported.
According to the EPA and the World Health Organization, gas-burning stoves emit unsafe levels of nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, and particulate matter, which are reported to be linked to respiratory illness, cardiovascular issues, cancer, and other conditions.
A December report from the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health claimed that over 12% “of current childhood asthma nationwide is attributed to gas stove use, which is similar to the childhood asthma burden attributed to secondhand smoke exposure.”
OBSERVATION – Note how quickly the regimen has jumped on this ‘report’ in order to justify its elimination of natural gas cooking stoves. Of course the WHO and EPA would be down on it as well. The goal of the globalists is to remove all natural gas appliances in the near future – as kalifornia is in the process of implementing. They don’t have enough electricity to recharge their EV’s, yet demand you rely on electricity alone for cooking and heating/cooling.
Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He will reportedly travel to Davos, Switzerland next week for the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting. This is the first time in two years that China has sent a delegate to the Davos event. Some suspect that Liu will use a lot of the time making economic / trade connections with the delegates.
Wuhan virus –
See China for latest outbreak.
Economy –
SUMMARY – More and more indicators of not only a recession, but a deep and protracted one at that.
Household spending growth expectations over the next 12 months fell by a full percentage point, to 5.9 percent, in December 2022, according to the latest New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations. That’s the lowest level for the reading since January 2022, when the year-ahead spending growth expectations came in at 5.5 percent. Consumer spending is a key driver of the U.S. economy, accounting for about two-thirds of gross domestic product (GDP).
The drop in spending expectations dovetails with a recent downgrade in GDP forecasts from the Federal Reserve. The Fed’s most recent summary of economic projections predicts U.S. GDP will grow by just 0.5 percent in 2023. That’s down sharply from September 2022 projections, which called for a 1.2 percent pace.
OBSERVATION – This latest projection essentially shows zero GDP growth. This is razor thin from falling into recession.
IN RELATED -
The number of job openings in the United States—a measure of labor market tightness—came in far higher than analysts expected, fueling concerns of more inflation and that the Fed will have to double down on aggressive rate hikes.
Job openings came in at 10.5 million as of the last day of November 2022, according to the latest Department of Labor monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).
Market forecasts had expected a more modest 10 million vacancies.
At 10.5 million, the number of open jobs far exceeds the 6 million people that are unemployed in the United States. This means that there are roughly 1.75 available jobs per unemployed person.
OBSERVATION – Attacking employment will further reduce Household spending growth even further – thereby dropping the GDP into negative ground – if we follow the Fed’s logic as listed above.
MORE RELATED – In September 2022, Powell said he saw the “need to have softer labor market conditions,” while acknowledging that pushing interest rates higher would likely mean higher rates of joblessness.
“We need to complete this task,” he said at the time, noting that it won’t be “painless.”
The Fed expects to have to boost interest rates above 5 percent and keep them there for some time, while forecasting that the unemployment rate will rise to 4.6 percent by the end of 2023.
OBSERVATION – That is easily a doubling of the unemployment rate combined with extended period of high interest rates that will stifle businesses – especially small businesses without the reserves necessary to weather out a recession.
MORE FED TALK - (Bloomberg) — Two Federal Reserve officials said Monday that the central bank will likely need to raise interest rates above 5% before pausing and holding for some time. “We are just going to have to hold our resolve,” Raphael Bostic, president of the Atlanta Fed, told the Atlanta Rotary Club. He said the Fed was committed to tackling high inflation and this warrants raising interest rates into a 5% to 5.25% range to squeeze excess demand out of the economy.
OBSERVATION – More tea leaf reading on just what the fed will do next. Economists guesstimate that a 50 basis point increase is in the offing given the labor market and the resistantly high inflation rates.
The governors of seven states in the midwest say that a proposed Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) rule will cause spikes in gas prices. The EPA currently plans to stop air pollution waivers for E10 gasoline, which contains up to 10% ethanol. According to refiners and pipeline operators, a resulting change in the market from E10 to E15 would threaten short-term fuel supplies and spike prices.
OBSERVATION – Gasoline/diesel are the life blood of the economy and prices ripple throughout. Already we are looking at forecasted gasoline prices in early summer exceeding $4/gallon. Playing around with the ethanol additive will only make matters worse.
Invasion of Illegals –
Biden visited a “migrant services center” in El Paso that provides transportation and gifts to migrants that cross the US-Mexico border illegally this week.
During the tour, Biden asked workers at the center, “If I could wave the wand, what should I do?”
OBSERVATION – biden saw a sanitized El Paso with all the illegal street camps removed.
Biden / Harris watch –
A batch of records from President Biden’s time as Vice President, including a “small number of documents with classified markings,” were discovered at the Penn Biden Center by the president’s personal attorneys on Nov. 2, according to Richard Sauber, special counsel to the White House.
The attorneys found the documents in a locked closet while preparing to vacate office space at the center, which the president used from mid-2017 until he began the 2020 campaign. The National Archives were notified of the finding and took possession of the documents on Nov. 3, 2022, Sauber said.
OBSERVATION – I agree with many commentators – when will the FBI raids occur?
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Alex Berenson dropped records from the Twitter Files on Monday, stating that a board member for Pfizer pressured Twitter to suppress and censor any posts questioning the efficacy of the company’s mRNA vaccine.
On August 27, 2021, Pfizer Board Member Dr. Scott Gottlieb emailed Todd O’Boyle, a Senior Manager of Public Policy at Twitter’s Washington, DC location, according to LinkedIn, and also Twitter’s point of contact with the White House, Berenson reported.
The email subject line contained a tweet from Dr. Brett Giroir, who had briefly served under Gottlieb in the Food and Drug Administration.
That tweet read: “It’s now clear that [Covid-19] natural immunity is superior to [vaccine] immunity, by ALOT. There’s no scientific justification for [vax proof] if a person had prior infection.”
In response to the tweet, Gottlieb told O’Boyle, “This is the kind of stuff that’s corrosive. Here he draws a sweeping conclusion off of a single retrospective study in Israel that hasn’t been peer-reviewed. But this tweet will end up going viral and driving news coverage.”
While a Strategic Response analyst found that the tweet didn’t violate Twitter’s rules on misinformation, the tweet was still flagged as “misleading.”
OBSERVATION – More and more on how the leftists used censorship to stifle necessary public debate and discussion. While twitter was one of the main supporters of such suppression, no doubt that similar mechanisms were in place and in use on other social media platforms such as fakebook, etc.
MORE RELATED - A recently published email has provided more evidence of President Joe Biden’s administration asking tech platforms to censor content that challenges the federal government’s Covid messaging.
The email shows the Biden White House’s Digital Director for the COVID-19 Response Team, Clarke Humphrey, requesting that Twitter remove a tweet from environmental health lawyer and author Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
“Wanted to flag the below tweet and am wondering if we can get moving on the process for having it removed ASAP,” Humphrey wrote to Twitter in the January 2021 email. “And then if we can keep an eye out for tweets that fall in this same ~genre that would be great.”
OBSERVATION – Govt has no right to interfere in such a manner.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The House has passed a bill clawing back $80 million that was to be used to expand the Internal Revenue Service through the hiring of some 87,000 new agents.
OBSERVATION – Nice, but most likely DOA in the Senate.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
A man is facing terrorism charges after he rammed his car through the gate of the Mega Solar Array facility in Las Vegas, Nevada, and set his vehicle on fire damaging the facility. According to an employee, the fire caused significant damage and it could take up to two years to receive replacement parts. The police said the suspect told them he set the fire at the facility “for the future.”
OBSERVATION – The police are labeling this as ‘terrorism’ but so far this individual appears to have mental issues.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe. Chinese New Year celebrations begin 22 January, after which they would have 60 days until a break in seasonally rough weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait.
Nearly 90% of people in China’s third most populous province have now been infected with COVID-19, a top official said Monday, as the country battles an unprecedented surge in cases. Kan Quancheng, director of the health commission for central Henan province, told a press conference that “as of January 6, 2023, the province’s COVID infection rate is 89.0%.” With a population of 99.4 million, the figures suggest about 88.5 million people in Henan may now have been infected.
OBSERVATION – Reportedly severely impacting Chinese industry and export. While they still talk about deaths, no evidence that this apparent strain doing the infecting is any more lethal than the original virus.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian forces are close to capturing the salt mining town of Soledar on January 8 & 9. Ukrainian defense officials said that while Russian forces don’t fully control Soledar, the situation there is extremely difficult & Wagner personnel are advancing in certain areas. Heaviest fighting seems to be around the enterances to a network of salt tunnels that are beneath much of the area. The Russian attacks in the area have been part of Wagner Groups efforts to encircle Bahkmut from the north. Assessment from analysts is that if the town falls, it is unlikely that Bahkmut will soon fall as Ukraine has extensive defenses in depth. It is also not a ‘break out’ of Russian forces, as the battle as been primarily fought by leg infantry absent significant armor.
Elsewhere along the eastern front, continued attacks out of Donetsk towards the west. There are also reports of major explosions in Russian occupied Kherson and Crimea Oblasts.
OUTLOOK ——
The battle for Soledar looks like it is trending for Russia as a significant amount of support is being given Wagner group (with heavy casualities) to seize the rubble that was the town. Biggest question mark are the salt mine tunnels which reportedly are miles long and rumored to contain cold war era military equipment. The fact that it has taken even Wagner months and months to get this far calls into question any Russian offensive into Donbas. Ukraine has an extensive defense in depth.
Wagner Group, OTOH, is using this “success” in its power plays against the MoD and in getting more resources diverted to its cause.
Iran –
The activist daughter of former Iranian president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjanihas been sentenced to five years in prison, her lawyer said on Tuesday. The lawyer did not give detail of the charges against Faezeh Hashemi. But Tehran’s public prosecutor indicted Hashemi last year on charges of “propaganda against the system,” according to the semi-official ISNA news agency.
State media in September reported she had been arrested for “inciting riots” in Tehran during protests triggered by the death of a young Kurdish woman in police custody.
OBSERVATION – Protests continue, though at lower numbers. The regime is pushing hard on punishing protestors and even one’s connection to the regime are not enough to protect some of them.
Biden's disgusting... Is this the center that hands out the free phones so cartel thugs can keep track of their 'property'?
Globalism / Great Reset –
Spouting more of the dystopian future envisioned by the WEF, according to Klaus Schwab’s lead advisor, Noah Yuval Harari, Human beings will need to “relearn how to see and walk”, and humanity need to get ready for a future that will be lived in virtual reality, divorced from the “physical and biological” world.
“Maybe the most important quality to survive and flourish in 21st century is to have mental flexibility — not just to keep learning and changing again and again — [but] also to keep letting go.
Part of what makes it difficult to learn new things [is] that we hold on. … I’ll give an example of how deep it goes: it’s not just what you learned in college or what you learned in kindergarten; it’s even what you learned as a baby, as a toddler, like learning how to see, or learning how to walk.
But what does it mean that I have to relearn how to see and walk? As virtual reality improves — and with all the talk of the metaverse and so forth, which we will discuss later on — increasingly, it’s likely that [there] will be many more activities shifting from the physical biological world that we know into a new reality — a virtual reality — which has different physical and biological laws.”
OBSERVATION – This guy is pure evil and is outlining a Matrix-esque future.
WEF forum President Borge Brende, notes this years Davo conference will host a “record participation” of 52 heads of state and government, more than half of them from Europe, as well as some recently elected leaders including President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea, President Gustavo Petro of Colombia and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines. Nearly 300 government ministers were expected to take part.
1,500 private jets are also expected to descend on the conference site as well.
OBSERVATION – Next week we should see the agenda of the globalists for the coming year. No doubt with bold goals and ever deepening reach of power, facilitated by these heads of state and mega-corporations.
More on the fight against fossil fuels and the natural gas stove kerfuffle. Gas stoves, which are used in about 40% of American homes and are loved for their easy and speedy adjustability, may be banned by the Biden administration over concerns about their production of indoor pollutants. “This is a hidden hazard,” U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) commissioner Richard Trumka Jr told Bloomberg. “Any option is on the table,” said the son of the late AFL-CIO president. “Products that can’t be made safe can be banned.”
OBSERVATION - “Products that can’t be made safe can be banned.” Can easily be applied to just about anything made now a days.
RELATED – Now the push back is coming. A Biden-appointed commissioner at the federal Consumer Product Safety Commission tried to turn down the temperature after a report that the agency was considering a national ban on gas stoves because they emit harmful pollutants.
Trumka now states - “To be clear, CPSC isn’t coming for anyone’s gas stoves,” he added. “Regulations apply to new products. For Americans who CHOOSE to switch from gas to electric, there is support available – Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act which includes a $840 rebate.”
Rep. Gary Palmer (R-Ala.).was unconvinced -
“As I said yesterday, unelected bureaucrats should not have the type of power to even consider such an action,” he tweeted Tuesday, linking to a Post story about the mooted ban. “It is time to rein in the Biden administration and their continual desire to control American’s lives and decisions.”
“Over 40 million American households use gas stoves,” Palmer wrote. “This type of power should never have been given to unelected bureaucrats and it is time for it to end.”
MORE RELATED - New York Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, during her state of the state address Monday, announced plans to ban gas heating on the construction of new buildings over the next several years.
OBSERVATION – It is all about power, and nothing more.
BTW – The elimination of gas stoves is based on a single study by the American Chemical Society and New York University Law School’s Institute for Policy Integrity that reportedly claimed it found gas stoves emit pollutants like nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide and fine matter at levels considered unsafe by the Environmental Protection Agency and World Health Organization.
NOW IF ONLY THEY STOP THE WUHAN JABS FOR A SIMILAR REASON – THE DOZENS OF STUDIES THAT SHOW THEM NOT ONLY INEFFECTIVE BUT DEADLY. (RANT – off)
From WUWT, a telling analysis of this “study” and the lack of associated science
Here is a quick summary of the some of study’s principle flaws, in no particular order:
• It’s not actual research on children. It is a meta-analysis of previously published (and ignored) studies — a study of otherwise unpersuasive studies. The authors did a literature search for previous epidemiologic studies on gas stoves and asthma in kids and then just mixed those results together in an effort to contrive statistical significance. This is a bogus technique for a number of reasons including publications bias in the component studies — i.e., studies with null results aren’t published.
• The study results, including the component studies, are weak statistical associations — i.e., noise range correlations. The study results, likely including the component studies, are not statistically significant either.
• Asthma is an allergic disease. There are no allergens in natural gas. So the study has no biological plausibility. No one knows what causes asthma in children and so competing causes could not be ruled out.
• The claim that gas stoves are responsible for 12% of childhood asthma – an epidemiologic concept called “attributable risk” – is entirely bogus because epidemiological studies can only be used to associated exposures with disease. They cannot be used to determine risk of disease because (1) the underlying data is not representative of the population; and (2) epidemiologic studies cannot be used by themselves to determine cause-and-effect relationships.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/01/10/no-new-study-does-not-link-gas-stoves-with-asthma-in-children/
Economy –
Some of the world’s largest asset managers and advisors such as BlackRock, Fidelity, and economist Mohamed El-Erian are warning that markets are again underestimating inflation. While consensus is for Thursday’s U.S. CPI report to show a fall in headline inflation to 6.5% in December, all three warn it won’t signal the end of the inflation problem. Allianz Advisor Mohamed El-Erian warns, “Investors should be wary of repeating last year’s ‘transitory inflation’ mistake.” He added, “As important as this moderation is, it won’t signal the passing of the inflation problem. For that, both core and the mix of price rises need to point to a lot less inflation stickiness.” (FO)
OBSERVATION – As we continue into 2023 the threat of recession continues to climb. Whats interesting is WEF invested BlackRock is on the wagon for a recession.
Invasion of Illegals –
Texas Republican Rep. Pat Fallon has filed impeachment articles against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, delivering on a promise he made last week before the 118th Congress was officially sworn in.
The articles of impeachment against Mayorkas for “high crimes and misdemeanors,” known as House Resolution 8, were introduced by Fallon in the House on Monday and have been referred to the House Judiciary Committee.
OBSERVATION – This was expected and will likely meet its ultimate end in his impeachment. Senate will vote party line to preserve him, provided he doesn’t resign first. His resignation will not solve anything, since any replacement (initially temporary) will be someone willing to continue the open border / pseudo enforcement policies of the last couple years. It will put biden into an uncomfortable spot due to the increased news coverage the networks would likely be forced to do and his efforts to rally voters to his cause.
Biden / Harris watch –
Joe Biden was caught on camera making yet another blunder this weekend when he appeared to mistake a member of the Salvation Army for a secret service agent.
After speaking to Border Patrol officers and taking a walk along the wall separating the two countries the President was led to a migrants center and was introduced to a member of the Salvation Army wearing a uniform.
Biden stepped towards the aid worker - who was also wearing a Salvation Army badge, name tag and standing in front of a Salvation Army banner - shook his hand and whispered: ‘I spent some time with the Secret Service in Poland and Ukraine.’
CW2/Domestic violence –
On the fringe of CW2 is the continued illegal intrusion by govt agencies into our privacy. The Project for Privacy & Surveillance Accountability announced this week that it has obtained records about the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives’ use of stingrays to track Americans. PPSA filed a Freedom of Information Act request with the ATF in February 2021, and announced on Wednesday that it had received a batch of documents. According to PPSA, those documents show that the agency uses stingrays. “The information released by the ATF confirms the agency is indeed utilizing stingray technology,” PPSA said. “Although the agency attempted to minimize the usage of stingrays, it is clear they are being widely used against Americans.” ATF policy conceals the use of these devices from their targets, even when relevant to their legal defense.
OBSERVATION – More wholesale spying on citizens by the govt – entrenching tyrannical control.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
A reporter indicated that he may sue Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., after internal documents at Twitter revealed the Democrat tried to get him banned from the platform.
Elon Musk and journalist Matt Taibbi’s “Twitter Files” entry last week revealed that Schiff lobbied Twitter to suspend journalist Paul Sperry from the social media site in November 2020. Sperry, a senior reporter for RealClearInvestigations.com and a New York Post columnist, told Fox’s Brian Kilmeade that he was targeted by Schiff because of his reporting on Democrat sources in President Donald Trump’s first impeachment trial.
OBSERVATION- This lawsuit should also be along with an ethics violation investigation by the House.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The federal government is on track to max out on its $31.4 trillion borrowing authority as soon as this month, starting the clock on an expected standoff between President Joe Biden and the new House Republican majority that will test both parties’ ability to navigate a divided Washington, with the fragile global economy at stake.
Once the government bumps up against the cap — it could happen any time in the next few weeks or longer — the Treasury Department will be unable to issue new debt without congressional action. The department plans to deploy what are known as “extraordinary measures” to keep the government operating. But once those measures run out, probably mid-summer, the government could be at risk of defaulting .
OBSERVATION – Cross reference to Economy as well. The fight this time around over the debt ceiling could well be titanic and result in a govt shutdown. Depending on how long it lasts, the economy will likely take a hit as well. Need to watch what some of the early positioning statement say to get a better view of how this will play out.
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) announced he intends to follow through on his promise to block Democrats from seats on powerful committees, partially in retribution for Democrats knocking two Republicans off their committees in 2021. he’s planning to keep the California Democratic Reps. Adam Schiff and Eric Stalwell from being assigned to the Intelligence Committee. And he’s going to stop the progressive Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) from keeping her seat on the Foreign Affairs Committee.
OBSERVATION – Dems will be whining all week, but what is good for the goose, is good for the gander.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Pentagon announced on Tuesday that the Covid-19 vaccine will no longer be required for troops, according to a new memo signed by Defense Secretary Austin. Leading up to the decision, the Defense Department had already ceased all punitive actions against personnel who refused the shot. More than 8,400 troops were forced out of the military for refusing the jab.
OBSERVATION – Don’t hold your breath that those who received a DD for their refusal will see it reversed to a honorable.
The U.S. military is currently operating five forward logistics bases in the Philippines at Antonio Bautista Air Base in Palawan, Basa Air Base, 40 km north of the capital Manila, Ft Magsaysay in central Luzon, Lumbia Air Base in Mindanao and Mactan-Benito Ebuen Air Base. Located on Mactan Island off the coast of Cebu in the central Philippines. The U.S. is currently negotiating for, or in the process of building, five additional Forward Operating Bases in Kalayaan, Palawan, Zambales, and Isabela provinces in Luzon.
U.S. Marine Corps is converting an artillery regiment and an infantry regiment into Marine Littoral Regiments. The United States wants to disperse the new units throughout Japan’s Ryukyu and Nansei islands by 2026, arming them with missiles and lighter gear to deter China’s military, and will discuss the plan with Tokyo in Washington, D.C. The creation of the new Marine Littoral Regiments is part of a major reorganization of the U.S. Marine Corps outlined by its commandant.
OBSERVATION – Both of these actions are quick responses to growing Chinese aggression in the region and to have forces and equipment in place to respond.
Cyber Warfare –
(Reuters) - There is no evidence of a cyber attack in the FAA system outage that grounded flights across the country on Wednesday and President Joe Biden has ordered an investigation, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said.
“There is no evidence of a cyberattack at this point, but the President directed DOT (Department of Transportation) to conduct a full investigation into the causes. The FAA will provide regular updates,” Jean-Pierre said in a Twitter post.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe. Chinese New Year celebrations begin 22 January, after which they would have 60 days until a break in seasonally rough weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait.
Indicators –
A spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office threatened to attack Taiwan and warned that foreign politicians who interject themselves into the island’s business are “playing with fire.” The spokesperson, Ma Xiaoguang, said at a biweekly press conference that China was recommitted in the new year to “safeguarding sovereignty and territorial integrity and smashing plots for Taiwan independence.”
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Wagner Group is using its limited success in Soledar to beat the Russian MoD in the public opinion sphere.
Russian media reported on Jan. 10 that Colonel General Aleksandr Lapin, former commander of the Central Military District (CMD) & Russian forces in eastern Kharkiv & northern Donetsk oblasts, has been appointed Chief of Staff of the Russian Ground Forces.
OBSERVATION – I noted this change a few weeks or so back. He is already catching flack from Wagner Group for the losses in Kharkiv oblast.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Heavy clashes continue in Soledar, contrary to Russian (Wagner) claims of having control of the city. Russia does appear to have control to the salt mines and the eastern half, Ukraine at last report still held the western half. Wagner Group is making hay in Russia over its ‘victory’ as the power struggle with the MoD continues.
Russian ground and artillery attacks along the rest of the eastern front have lessened to a degree, far more scattered and sporadic.
OUTLOOK ——
At this stage, unless Ukraine pulls a rabbit out of its hat, Soledar is going to be lost. However, it is doubtful that Russia/Wagner will be able to effectively exploit this. They have wasted a huge number of conscripts in the effort and movement of armor out of the urban area, with the current persistent muddy conditions, into more open areas will be another turkey shoot for Ukraine.
Monitoring some changes in Ukraine view towards the Russian threat from Belarus. However, other analysts do not see any serious threat in the near future. Belarus is still assessed as staying in Belarus and not joining any offense from the north. See Belarus below.
Belarus -
Belarus’s defense ministry announced on Wednesday that its joint Russian-Belarusian air defense network had been reinforced with new missile units. “Anti-aircraft missile units advanced to designated areas and took up combat duty,” the ministry said in a brief statement.
There are reports of large amounts of Russian military equipment and troops moving into Belarus. A lot of the combat equipment is noted to have winter camouflage which is not wholly necessary for training activity and could indicate preparation for actual winter combat operations.
The UKR General Staff deviated from its normal reporting pattern about Russian forces in Belarus and near Ukraine’s northern border on January 10 by excluding its usual statement that Ukraine has not observed Russian forces forming strike groups in Belarus.
This could indicate that the Ukrainian military has observed Russian forces forming strike groups northern Ukraine. Alternatively, the situation may not have changed, and the Ukrainian General Staff may have left it out of the daily report in an isolated incident.
OBSERVATION - These are mixed signals in regards to Russian/Belarus intent. In the build up to the initial invasion, substantially larger movements of men and equipment from other military districts in Russia were noted coming into Belarus. AFA this time around, these deployments are not noted as happening. One potential course of action may be a ‘demonstration’ at the border in order to fix some of the Ukrainian forces in place so that they will not be available to defend from a winter Russian offensive. That is the current assessment of OSINT observers.
Iran –
Iran’s hanging of protesters - and display of their lifeless bodies suspended from cranes - seems to have instilled enough fear to keep people off the streets after months of anti-government unrest.
The achievement may prove shortlived, however, according analysts and experts. They argue the resort to deadly state violence is merely pushing dissent underground, while deepening anger felt by ordinary Iranians about the clerical establishment that has ruled them for four decades.
Reportedly, it has created a massive resentment among Iranians.
Inflation has soared to over 50 per cent, the highest level in decades. Youth unemployment remains high with over 50 per cent of Iranians being pushed below the poverty line, according to reports by Iran’s Statistics Centre.
OBSERVATION – Dissention will continue to simmer inspite of the crackdowns because Iran refuses to address the more critical needs of its citizens.
The U.S. Navy seized more than 2,000 assault rifles after halting a suspected smuggling vessel on its way from Iran to Yemen, the Navy announced Tuesday.
OBSERVATION – Though focusing on many other things, Iran continues to support terror in other areas of the Gulf region.
Syria -
(Reuters) According to a Turkish official: Discussions are continuing to hold a meeting between the foreign ministers of Turkey, Russia and the Assad government, and there are no problems, and work is being done on the timing.
OBSERVATION – Turkey working through hurdles to develop its kurd free buffer zone in N Syria.
Turkey -
See Syria above.