Globalism / Great Reset –
Spouting more of the dystopian future envisioned by the WEF, according to Klaus Schwab’s lead advisor, Noah Yuval Harari, Human beings will need to “relearn how to see and walk”, and humanity need to get ready for a future that will be lived in virtual reality, divorced from the “physical and biological” world.
“Maybe the most important quality to survive and flourish in 21st century is to have mental flexibility — not just to keep learning and changing again and again — [but] also to keep letting go.
Part of what makes it difficult to learn new things [is] that we hold on. … I’ll give an example of how deep it goes: it’s not just what you learned in college or what you learned in kindergarten; it’s even what you learned as a baby, as a toddler, like learning how to see, or learning how to walk.
But what does it mean that I have to relearn how to see and walk? As virtual reality improves — and with all the talk of the metaverse and so forth, which we will discuss later on — increasingly, it’s likely that [there] will be many more activities shifting from the physical biological world that we know into a new reality — a virtual reality — which has different physical and biological laws.”
OBSERVATION – This guy is pure evil and is outlining a Matrix-esque future.
WEF forum President Borge Brende, notes this years Davo conference will host a “record participation” of 52 heads of state and government, more than half of them from Europe, as well as some recently elected leaders including President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea, President Gustavo Petro of Colombia and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines. Nearly 300 government ministers were expected to take part.
1,500 private jets are also expected to descend on the conference site as well.
OBSERVATION – Next week we should see the agenda of the globalists for the coming year. No doubt with bold goals and ever deepening reach of power, facilitated by these heads of state and mega-corporations.
More on the fight against fossil fuels and the natural gas stove kerfuffle. Gas stoves, which are used in about 40% of American homes and are loved for their easy and speedy adjustability, may be banned by the Biden administration over concerns about their production of indoor pollutants. “This is a hidden hazard,” U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) commissioner Richard Trumka Jr told Bloomberg. “Any option is on the table,” said the son of the late AFL-CIO president. “Products that can’t be made safe can be banned.”
OBSERVATION - “Products that can’t be made safe can be banned.” Can easily be applied to just about anything made now a days.
RELATED – Now the push back is coming. A Biden-appointed commissioner at the federal Consumer Product Safety Commission tried to turn down the temperature after a report that the agency was considering a national ban on gas stoves because they emit harmful pollutants.
Trumka now states - “To be clear, CPSC isn’t coming for anyone’s gas stoves,” he added. “Regulations apply to new products. For Americans who CHOOSE to switch from gas to electric, there is support available – Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act which includes a $840 rebate.”
Rep. Gary Palmer (R-Ala.).was unconvinced -
“As I said yesterday, unelected bureaucrats should not have the type of power to even consider such an action,” he tweeted Tuesday, linking to a Post story about the mooted ban. “It is time to rein in the Biden administration and their continual desire to control American’s lives and decisions.”
“Over 40 million American households use gas stoves,” Palmer wrote. “This type of power should never have been given to unelected bureaucrats and it is time for it to end.”
MORE RELATED - New York Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, during her state of the state address Monday, announced plans to ban gas heating on the construction of new buildings over the next several years.
OBSERVATION – It is all about power, and nothing more.
BTW – The elimination of gas stoves is based on a single study by the American Chemical Society and New York University Law School’s Institute for Policy Integrity that reportedly claimed it found gas stoves emit pollutants like nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide and fine matter at levels considered unsafe by the Environmental Protection Agency and World Health Organization.
NOW IF ONLY THEY STOP THE WUHAN JABS FOR A SIMILAR REASON – THE DOZENS OF STUDIES THAT SHOW THEM NOT ONLY INEFFECTIVE BUT DEADLY. (RANT – off)
From WUWT, a telling analysis of this “study” and the lack of associated science
Here is a quick summary of the some of study’s principle flaws, in no particular order:
• It’s not actual research on children. It is a meta-analysis of previously published (and ignored) studies — a study of otherwise unpersuasive studies. The authors did a literature search for previous epidemiologic studies on gas stoves and asthma in kids and then just mixed those results together in an effort to contrive statistical significance. This is a bogus technique for a number of reasons including publications bias in the component studies — i.e., studies with null results aren’t published.
• The study results, including the component studies, are weak statistical associations — i.e., noise range correlations. The study results, likely including the component studies, are not statistically significant either.
• Asthma is an allergic disease. There are no allergens in natural gas. So the study has no biological plausibility. No one knows what causes asthma in children and so competing causes could not be ruled out.
• The claim that gas stoves are responsible for 12% of childhood asthma – an epidemiologic concept called “attributable risk” – is entirely bogus because epidemiological studies can only be used to associated exposures with disease. They cannot be used to determine risk of disease because (1) the underlying data is not representative of the population; and (2) epidemiologic studies cannot be used by themselves to determine cause-and-effect relationships.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/01/10/no-new-study-does-not-link-gas-stoves-with-asthma-in-children/
Economy –
Some of the world’s largest asset managers and advisors such as BlackRock, Fidelity, and economist Mohamed El-Erian are warning that markets are again underestimating inflation. While consensus is for Thursday’s U.S. CPI report to show a fall in headline inflation to 6.5% in December, all three warn it won’t signal the end of the inflation problem. Allianz Advisor Mohamed El-Erian warns, “Investors should be wary of repeating last year’s ‘transitory inflation’ mistake.” He added, “As important as this moderation is, it won’t signal the passing of the inflation problem. For that, both core and the mix of price rises need to point to a lot less inflation stickiness.” (FO)
OBSERVATION – As we continue into 2023 the threat of recession continues to climb. Whats interesting is WEF invested BlackRock is on the wagon for a recession.
Invasion of Illegals –
Texas Republican Rep. Pat Fallon has filed impeachment articles against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, delivering on a promise he made last week before the 118th Congress was officially sworn in.
The articles of impeachment against Mayorkas for “high crimes and misdemeanors,” known as House Resolution 8, were introduced by Fallon in the House on Monday and have been referred to the House Judiciary Committee.
OBSERVATION – This was expected and will likely meet its ultimate end in his impeachment. Senate will vote party line to preserve him, provided he doesn’t resign first. His resignation will not solve anything, since any replacement (initially temporary) will be someone willing to continue the open border / pseudo enforcement policies of the last couple years. It will put biden into an uncomfortable spot due to the increased news coverage the networks would likely be forced to do and his efforts to rally voters to his cause.
Biden / Harris watch –
Joe Biden was caught on camera making yet another blunder this weekend when he appeared to mistake a member of the Salvation Army for a secret service agent.
After speaking to Border Patrol officers and taking a walk along the wall separating the two countries the President was led to a migrants center and was introduced to a member of the Salvation Army wearing a uniform.
Biden stepped towards the aid worker - who was also wearing a Salvation Army badge, name tag and standing in front of a Salvation Army banner - shook his hand and whispered: ‘I spent some time with the Secret Service in Poland and Ukraine.’
CW2/Domestic violence –
On the fringe of CW2 is the continued illegal intrusion by govt agencies into our privacy. The Project for Privacy & Surveillance Accountability announced this week that it has obtained records about the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives’ use of stingrays to track Americans. PPSA filed a Freedom of Information Act request with the ATF in February 2021, and announced on Wednesday that it had received a batch of documents. According to PPSA, those documents show that the agency uses stingrays. “The information released by the ATF confirms the agency is indeed utilizing stingray technology,” PPSA said. “Although the agency attempted to minimize the usage of stingrays, it is clear they are being widely used against Americans.” ATF policy conceals the use of these devices from their targets, even when relevant to their legal defense.
OBSERVATION – More wholesale spying on citizens by the govt – entrenching tyrannical control.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
A reporter indicated that he may sue Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., after internal documents at Twitter revealed the Democrat tried to get him banned from the platform.
Elon Musk and journalist Matt Taibbi’s “Twitter Files” entry last week revealed that Schiff lobbied Twitter to suspend journalist Paul Sperry from the social media site in November 2020. Sperry, a senior reporter for RealClearInvestigations.com and a New York Post columnist, told Fox’s Brian Kilmeade that he was targeted by Schiff because of his reporting on Democrat sources in President Donald Trump’s first impeachment trial.
OBSERVATION- This lawsuit should also be along with an ethics violation investigation by the House.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The federal government is on track to max out on its $31.4 trillion borrowing authority as soon as this month, starting the clock on an expected standoff between President Joe Biden and the new House Republican majority that will test both parties’ ability to navigate a divided Washington, with the fragile global economy at stake.
Once the government bumps up against the cap — it could happen any time in the next few weeks or longer — the Treasury Department will be unable to issue new debt without congressional action. The department plans to deploy what are known as “extraordinary measures” to keep the government operating. But once those measures run out, probably mid-summer, the government could be at risk of defaulting .
OBSERVATION – Cross reference to Economy as well. The fight this time around over the debt ceiling could well be titanic and result in a govt shutdown. Depending on how long it lasts, the economy will likely take a hit as well. Need to watch what some of the early positioning statement say to get a better view of how this will play out.
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) announced he intends to follow through on his promise to block Democrats from seats on powerful committees, partially in retribution for Democrats knocking two Republicans off their committees in 2021. he’s planning to keep the California Democratic Reps. Adam Schiff and Eric Stalwell from being assigned to the Intelligence Committee. And he’s going to stop the progressive Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) from keeping her seat on the Foreign Affairs Committee.
OBSERVATION – Dems will be whining all week, but what is good for the goose, is good for the gander.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Pentagon announced on Tuesday that the Covid-19 vaccine will no longer be required for troops, according to a new memo signed by Defense Secretary Austin. Leading up to the decision, the Defense Department had already ceased all punitive actions against personnel who refused the shot. More than 8,400 troops were forced out of the military for refusing the jab.
OBSERVATION – Don’t hold your breath that those who received a DD for their refusal will see it reversed to a honorable.
The U.S. military is currently operating five forward logistics bases in the Philippines at Antonio Bautista Air Base in Palawan, Basa Air Base, 40 km north of the capital Manila, Ft Magsaysay in central Luzon, Lumbia Air Base in Mindanao and Mactan-Benito Ebuen Air Base. Located on Mactan Island off the coast of Cebu in the central Philippines. The U.S. is currently negotiating for, or in the process of building, five additional Forward Operating Bases in Kalayaan, Palawan, Zambales, and Isabela provinces in Luzon.
U.S. Marine Corps is converting an artillery regiment and an infantry regiment into Marine Littoral Regiments. The United States wants to disperse the new units throughout Japan’s Ryukyu and Nansei islands by 2026, arming them with missiles and lighter gear to deter China’s military, and will discuss the plan with Tokyo in Washington, D.C. The creation of the new Marine Littoral Regiments is part of a major reorganization of the U.S. Marine Corps outlined by its commandant.
OBSERVATION – Both of these actions are quick responses to growing Chinese aggression in the region and to have forces and equipment in place to respond.
Cyber Warfare –
(Reuters) - There is no evidence of a cyber attack in the FAA system outage that grounded flights across the country on Wednesday and President Joe Biden has ordered an investigation, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said.
“There is no evidence of a cyberattack at this point, but the President directed DOT (Department of Transportation) to conduct a full investigation into the causes. The FAA will provide regular updates,” Jean-Pierre said in a Twitter post.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe. Chinese New Year celebrations begin 22 January, after which they would have 60 days until a break in seasonally rough weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait.
Indicators –
A spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office threatened to attack Taiwan and warned that foreign politicians who interject themselves into the island’s business are “playing with fire.” The spokesperson, Ma Xiaoguang, said at a biweekly press conference that China was recommitted in the new year to “safeguarding sovereignty and territorial integrity and smashing plots for Taiwan independence.”
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Wagner Group is using its limited success in Soledar to beat the Russian MoD in the public opinion sphere.
Russian media reported on Jan. 10 that Colonel General Aleksandr Lapin, former commander of the Central Military District (CMD) & Russian forces in eastern Kharkiv & northern Donetsk oblasts, has been appointed Chief of Staff of the Russian Ground Forces.
OBSERVATION – I noted this change a few weeks or so back. He is already catching flack from Wagner Group for the losses in Kharkiv oblast.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Heavy clashes continue in Soledar, contrary to Russian (Wagner) claims of having control of the city. Russia does appear to have control to the salt mines and the eastern half, Ukraine at last report still held the western half. Wagner Group is making hay in Russia over its ‘victory’ as the power struggle with the MoD continues.
Russian ground and artillery attacks along the rest of the eastern front have lessened to a degree, far more scattered and sporadic.
OUTLOOK ——
At this stage, unless Ukraine pulls a rabbit out of its hat, Soledar is going to be lost. However, it is doubtful that Russia/Wagner will be able to effectively exploit this. They have wasted a huge number of conscripts in the effort and movement of armor out of the urban area, with the current persistent muddy conditions, into more open areas will be another turkey shoot for Ukraine.
Monitoring some changes in Ukraine view towards the Russian threat from Belarus. However, other analysts do not see any serious threat in the near future. Belarus is still assessed as staying in Belarus and not joining any offense from the north. See Belarus below.
Belarus -
Belarus’s defense ministry announced on Wednesday that its joint Russian-Belarusian air defense network had been reinforced with new missile units. “Anti-aircraft missile units advanced to designated areas and took up combat duty,” the ministry said in a brief statement.
There are reports of large amounts of Russian military equipment and troops moving into Belarus. A lot of the combat equipment is noted to have winter camouflage which is not wholly necessary for training activity and could indicate preparation for actual winter combat operations.
The UKR General Staff deviated from its normal reporting pattern about Russian forces in Belarus and near Ukraine’s northern border on January 10 by excluding its usual statement that Ukraine has not observed Russian forces forming strike groups in Belarus.
This could indicate that the Ukrainian military has observed Russian forces forming strike groups northern Ukraine. Alternatively, the situation may not have changed, and the Ukrainian General Staff may have left it out of the daily report in an isolated incident.
OBSERVATION - These are mixed signals in regards to Russian/Belarus intent. In the build up to the initial invasion, substantially larger movements of men and equipment from other military districts in Russia were noted coming into Belarus. AFA this time around, these deployments are not noted as happening. One potential course of action may be a ‘demonstration’ at the border in order to fix some of the Ukrainian forces in place so that they will not be available to defend from a winter Russian offensive. That is the current assessment of OSINT observers.
Iran –
Iran’s hanging of protesters - and display of their lifeless bodies suspended from cranes - seems to have instilled enough fear to keep people off the streets after months of anti-government unrest.
The achievement may prove shortlived, however, according analysts and experts. They argue the resort to deadly state violence is merely pushing dissent underground, while deepening anger felt by ordinary Iranians about the clerical establishment that has ruled them for four decades.
Reportedly, it has created a massive resentment among Iranians.
Inflation has soared to over 50 per cent, the highest level in decades. Youth unemployment remains high with over 50 per cent of Iranians being pushed below the poverty line, according to reports by Iran’s Statistics Centre.
OBSERVATION – Dissention will continue to simmer inspite of the crackdowns because Iran refuses to address the more critical needs of its citizens.
The U.S. Navy seized more than 2,000 assault rifles after halting a suspected smuggling vessel on its way from Iran to Yemen, the Navy announced Tuesday.
OBSERVATION – Though focusing on many other things, Iran continues to support terror in other areas of the Gulf region.
Syria -
(Reuters) According to a Turkish official: Discussions are continuing to hold a meeting between the foreign ministers of Turkey, Russia and the Assad government, and there are no problems, and work is being done on the timing.
OBSERVATION – Turkey working through hurdles to develop its kurd free buffer zone in N Syria.
Turkey -
See Syria above.
Illegals at the border also expresed gratitude to Biden for opening the country for them. Seems everyone knows who's buttering their bread.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Declaration of North America (DNA)
Today, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, President Joseph R. Biden, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met in Mexico City for the 10th North American Leaders’ Summit (NALS). The leaders are determined to fortify our region’s security, prosperity, sustainability and inclusiveness through commitments across six pillars: 1) diversity, equity, and inclusion; 2) climate change and the environment; 3) competitiveness; 4) migration and development; 5) health; and 6) regional security.
OBSERVATION – Classic globalist tripe. Read the announcement at the link above. I think this is setting the framework for a North American Union that eliminates the nations and rights we currently have (or at least still on paper have). Note also how they merge with WEF goals.
Gas stoves, the saga continues . . . . . .
RedState.com notes the company involved with the ‘study’ of health issues associated with gas stoves and the associated recent democrat attacks against them has links to the WEF. According to the report -
“Regardless, it’s worth asking where this is all coming from, right? Why did Democrats all start moving in lockstep to ban gas stoves, seemingly with no prior concern at all? And sure enough, with a little digging, it’s been revealed that this isn’t just idle science taking place.”
“The company behind the study is called Rocky Mountain Institute “Carbon-Free Buildings.” That company is a partner of the World Economic Forum and has a true-believer CEO who wants to rid the world of all carbon emissions (which is impossible and would lead to mass extinction).”
OBSERVATION – Just another effort to try to force more people off forms of energy that rely on fossil fuels (i.e. natural gas).
RELATED - The Consumer Product Safety Commission on Wednesday walked back a claim made by one of its members that the Biden administration was weighing a ban on new natural gas stoves over health concerns.
The reversal follows fierce rebukes from politicians and the energy industry.
The chair of the federal agency, Biden appointee Alexander Hoehn-Saric, said previous assertions made by fellow Commissioner Richard Trumka Jr. that the agency would consider a ban in the coming months was simply not true.
House Energy and Commerce Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers, Washington Republican, described a ban as the “latest in a long line of power grabs by the radical left and Biden administration.”
“It is not about public safety,” she said. “It is about telling the American people the federal government knows best and will decide what kind of car they can drive, how they can heat their house, and now how they’re allowed to cook food for their families.”
OBSERVATION – Said dozens and dozens of times – its all about power.
Reagan called the nine most terrifying words in the English language: “I’m from the government, and I’m here to help you kill yourself.”
Soon after the announcement that Canada would expand its medically assisted suicide program to include those with mental illness, the popular Canadian department store chain Simons issued a new advertisement celebrating the policy. The video features a woman saying, “Last breaths are sacred; you just have to be brave enough to see it,” over a montage of her being wheeled to places of natural wonder. The department store’s logo is featured prominently at the end of the commercial.
OBSERVATION – Death is an obsession with the WEF and other globalists. It is their stated goal to substantially depopulate the planet (the now destroyed Georgia guidestones called for a global population of no more than 500 million). When 0bama care / universal health care was debated here in the US, the discussion of the death counsels was raised – how worth it was your life to be continued versus the medical resources needed. Assisted suicide at a state level has been around some blue states, but never at the brazen level now projected by Canada. Remember Canada has been the beta test country for many of the GGR’s stated plans. Remember also that our medical crisis has been manipulated by the tyrannical leftists in DC towards the goal of universal health care, bring along with it the inevitable govt directed euthanasia of the sick and elderly.
The Georgia governor and republican is scheduled to be in Davos for the WEF confab. Many are asking WHY? Perhaps a hint was seen earlier in 2022 when Georgia’s Secretary of State, Brad Raffensperger announced that he was awarding management of Georgia’s voter registration system to a subsidiary of Salesforce.com. Marc Benioff is founder and co-chairman of Salesforce and is also a member of the Board of Trustees of the World Economic Forum.
OBSERVATION – Once again the WEF shows that it has the power to influence and control governments. In this case, follow the money.
Wuhan virus –
Wuhan virus continues to develop new forms of the Omicron strain, which is the predominant form of the virus circulating today. Much more contagious than the original novel coronavirus found in Wuhan, China in late 2019, the omicron strain has continued to mutate; there are now more than 650 subvariants, and that doesn’t include the previous Greek-letter versions like Alpha, Gamma, Delta, and their subtypes.
Certain subvariants that are concerning are now being given names from Greek lore. The current mutation, XBB1.5, that is showing growth in the United States is being called the “Kraken” variant, after the mythological sea monster.
The Kraken variant is thought by the World Health Organization (WHO) to be the most transmissible version yet, with possible reproductive (R-Nought) numbers above 18. A disease’s R-Nought is the number of cases that will occur in a vulnerable population if an infected person is placed in the middle of it. Measles’ R-nought is about 18, which means that an infected individual will give the disease to an average of 18 susceptible people. The Kraken variant is apparently even more contagious.
https://www.doomandbloom.net/the-kraken-variant/
OBSERVATION – No evidence that this variant has gained lethality, but trend indicates it is not very lethal inspite of being highly contagious. From what I’ve read, the traditional trend (back when real science mattered) is for these viruses to increase in transmissibility and decrease in lethality – ie more hosts and not killing itself (host) off in the process.
Economy –
Even if the U.S. avoids a recession in 2023, American consumers and investors could face a grinding slowdown that likely won’t let up until 2024, according to a new outlook published by Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi.
Zandi even coined a new term to describe this kind of protracted downturn, calling it a “slowcession” in a note sent to clients and reporters on Tuesday.
The mainstream view on Wall Street is that as the Federal Reserve slashes interest rates to help cushion the blow for investors and consumers, the U.S. economy will likely enter a brief recession during the first half of 2023, but that it will be over long before year’s end.
Still, while Zandi believes the Fed’s most aggressive interest-rate hikes in decades will have a deleterious impact on GDP growth, he thinks a strong U.S. labor market and other factors relating to the consumer should help prevent an outright contraction in the economy.
“There is no doubt the economy will struggle in the coming year as the Fed works to rein in the high inflation, but the baseline outlook holds that the Fed will be able to accomplish this without precipitating a recession,” Zandi said in the note.
According to a set of forecasts, Zandi expects U.S. gross domestic product to grow by roughly 1% or less on a year-over-year basis during all four quarters in 2023.
OBSERVATION – New term and concept, but still doesn’t sound very good. He doesn’t define “strong labor market” and if the Fed hits its unemployment ‘goal’ of 5%+ how is that ‘strong’. Also ignores the historical role the housing market plays in helping the nation pull out of recessions – that role will be denied under prolonged high interest rates and unemployment. Doesn’t seem to factor in continuing stressors that will push to maintain inflationary trends such as agricultural related, disruptions of the oil/gas industry (minus major chaos from wars) and inflated govt spending.
Yes, I’m inclined to be more doomish on my outlook, but post wuhan and the purposeful economic implosion directed by the biden regime pushes the recession analyses – particularly those who say there will be on recesson or that it will be minor – are understating these and other factors.
Complications from extreme winter weather conditions are at least partly to blame for a feed crisis confronting California-based poultry producer Foster Farms.
The shortage of feed — which it blamed on Union Pacific rail delivery failures — imperiled both chickens and cattle, the company said in a Dec. 29 petition to the Service Transportation Board for emergency assistance.
“The point has again been reached where hundreds of thousands of dairy cattle are not being fed, and when millions of chickens will starve to death because of UP’s service failures,” Foster Farms said in the petition.
“While Foster Farms concedes that weather played a part, it also believes this failure is indicative of systemic problems within UP that will persist,” the company said in an STB filing Thursday after four of the five feed trains had arrived. Foster Farms said Union Pacific delays have affected three of its facilities in California since October.
OBSERVATION – A lot has been made out of the outrageous egg prices recently. This kalifornia component is just one. The late December arctic blast (Winter Storm Elliott) killed many chickens as well (reducing egg production).
However, UP and other rail roads have had trouble dealing with engineer shortages and back up of trains with its own cars, let alone cars belonging to other companies that they transport. I’ve noted these issues throughout 2022. Logistics supply to companies look to continue to be critical throughout 2023.
Analysts from ING Groep NV and Goldman Sachs expect a rally for oil to bring the price above $100 a barrel as Russian supply drops and China increases oil imports. American Petroleum Institute President Mike Sommers said the Biden administration’s refusal to signal support for the U.S. oil and gas sector is making it difficult for producers to access capital and increase production.(FO)
OBSERVATION – Continued forecasts of higher oil prices as we enter the summer season. These forecasts have to be caveated with no Black Swan events – such as Belarus entering the Ukraine war in a more active manner or China making starting moves to take Taiwan. Here in my corner of the Redoubt gasoline prices are starting their upward migration.
Department of Agriculture (USDA) Secretary Tom Vilsack outlined a first round of funding on a $500 million program to expand domestic fertilizer production.
OBSERVATION – Expansion of domestic fertilizer will need natural gas as well as mined minerals such as phosphorus. Both of those areas face huge hurdles in today’s biden regime environment.
Invasion of Illegals –
Mexico’s President Andrés Lopez Obrador says 40 million Mexicans are living in the United States.
“Just imagine: There are 40 million Mexicans in the United States — 40 million [including people] who were born here in Mexico, [or] who are the children of people who were born in Mexico,” President Andrés Lopez Obrador gushed at a January 10 press conference with President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Obrador’s proud Mexican-first advocacy for ethnic Mexicans — including ethnic Mexicans in the United States — is very different from the globalist, investor-first policies pushed by Trudeau and Biden.
OBSERVATION – See also Globalism / Great Reset above on the DNA statement pushing movement to a North America without borders.
Biden / Harris watch –
Aides to President Joe Biden have discovered at least one additional batch of classified documents in a location separate from the Washington, D.C., office he used after serving as vice president, NBC News reported Wednesday
CW2/Domestic violence –
The American Civil Liberties Union is calling for an overhaul of FBI rules after The Washington Times reported that agents used the CIA and National Security Agency to spy on Americans.
The ACLU urged the bureau to impose new limits on agents’ power to investigate Americans without warrants.
The FBI’s rule book, rewritten in 2021, revealed details about how the FBI tasks the CIA and NSA for help on matters including assessments, which are investigations that can involve surveillance without a court order against people not accused of a crime.
OBSERVATION – A clear case of a blind squirrel finding a nut.
POLITICAL FRONT –
President Joe Biden’s possession of classified information while he was vice president, other members of his current administration have been linked to the scandal. The classified documents were found at the Penn Biden Center, a think tank that the president started in 2018.
As reported by Fox News, 10 members of Biden’s administration were formally employed at the think tank, including current Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
The list also includes Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl and White House Counselor Steven Richetti. Blinken and Richetti were managing directors at the think tank while Kahl was a consultant.
Spencer Boyer, the deputy assistant secretary of defense for NATO and Europe policy was a senior fellow at Penn Biden.
Deputy to the U.N. Ambassador Jeffrey Prescott; Ariana Berengaut; Organization of Security and Cooperation Europe Michael Carpenter, special assistant Juan Gonzalez, speechwriter Carlyn Reichel, and former deputy secretary of state Brian McKeon.
OBSERVATION – Waiting for the FBI raids and special prosecutor to be named.
RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel is facing stiffer head winds as she tries to be reelected to that position. As a result of the debacle that was the 2022 midterms where she lead the party to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, a growing number of conservatives want to see a change in leadership.
OBSERVATION – She is deep rooted, deep state niece of turn coat Sen Romney. But the RNC’s epic failure last year may work to force her out in spite of her ties. A recent Human Events poll reports that just six percent of Republicans want Ronna McDaniel to remain RNC chair,
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe. Chinese New Year celebrations begin 22 January, after which they would have 60 days until a break in seasonally rough weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait.
Indicators –
• China executed a snap military exercise on Monday that simulated kinetic strikes on Taiwanese infrastructure and what appeared to be an air/sea blockade along its southern and eastern coasts. The exercise was unexpected and only announced after commencement.
• The exercise included more than 57 tactical aircraft and four naval surface combatants.
• The exercise was run by the People’s Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command – the command that would be responsible for a military operation against Taiwan.
• China has been making massive new purchases of gold, suggesting that it is expecting western sanctions and financial disruption ahead of a move on Taiwan. NOTE - China has long been purchasing a lot of gold, also thought to be in preparation for a move to gold backed standard currency.
North/South Korea –
South Korea’s Yoon says if North Korean provocations continue, the South could deploy tactical nuclear warheads or possess its own nukes, saying, “We’ll be able to get hold of them sooner with our science and technology.”
OBSERVATION - It has long been considered that technologically advanced countries like Japan and S Korea could express run a nuclear program – all they would need is the fissile Uranium or Plutonium.
Japan –
Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and the U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak signed a new defense agreement on Wednesday. The agreement provides reciprocal deployment of military forces for training and operations.
OBSERVATION – Japan continues to move at maximum speed to prepare for conflict with China in both diplomatic and material arenas.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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Eyebrows have been raised at the deployment of Russian Navy ships and submarines from their base at Novorossiysk, in the Black Sea, en-masse. This is highly unusual and may indicate ongoing operations. Sources seen by Naval News confirm the exodus. The group included the Project 11711 Ivan Gren class landing ship, Pyotr Morgunov, the largest amphibious ship in the Black Sea.
It also contained all three Project 636.3 Improved-Kilo class submarines which were present at the base. Analysis suggests that other warships were also sailing, leaving only a few warships and support vessels in the port. It is likely the most empty that Novorossiysk has been in many months.
The remaining explanation is that the Russian Navy assets are involved in an operation. The last time we reported an unusual spike in Russian Navy activity it preceded extensive missile strikes on Ukraine. The Improved-Kilo class submarines have been used to launch Kalibr cruise missile attacks on Ukraine.
Also seemingly associated are reports of significant Russian GPS jamming in and around the Black Sea. Several indications occurring of a possible significant escalation by Russian forces.
OBSERVATION – Most definitively an indicator of an impending Russian missile/cruise missile/drone blitz. What is curious is the deployment of their amphib landing ships. At this stage of the war it is almost inconceivable that Russia would attempt any kind of an amphib operation against Ukraine as it is armed to the teeth with modern anti-ship weapons systems that would cut the landing craft to pieces. These landing craft have been previously tasked with shuttling supplies across the Kerch Strait until the bridge is fully repaired – due sometime in the late summer.
One observation I have is that Russia could have done some modifications to permit these amphib vessels to launch Iranian drones, perhaps stealing a page out of Iran’s current naval build up that includes drone launching ships.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
The Russian invasion of Ukraine may come to a terrifying end in 2023, with Russian President Vladimir Putin likely to turn to nuclear weapons rather than have his armies be completely routed on the battlefield, retired US Army Brig.-Gen. Kevin Ryan said in a Tuesday interview with Insider.
This possibility could occur, Ryan, who also was the former US military attache to Russia, told Insider, with the goal of not only taking out Ukrainian troops but also forcing Kyiv into surrendering to avoid a nuclear holocaustscenario. Moscow could make this move if one of two things happened:
1. Ukraine’s forces are about to utterly defeat the Russian military in the field
2. Ukraine’s forces are about to finally retake the Crimean Peninsula that Moscow annexed in 2014
OBSERVATION – these points have been covered in the past few months, so there is nothing really new here. Russian nukes are a wildcard. Some analysts suggest that if putin dies with the war ongoing, his successor may be very inclined to execute this option.
RUMINT-
Growing rumors that a Russian 2nd mobilization is looming with as many as 500K more soldiers will be mobilized, in addition to 300K in September. It is being reported that Moscow will restrict travel for men of military age 18-45. The Russian FSB claims this is false- but in May, the Duma increased the age limit for contractual military service from 45 to 65.
NOTE – If the previous mobilization is any model, this larger one will also be a goat rope. Barely trained conscripts could see fighting in about a month, while those needed to operate armor, artillery, etc will take longer. This constrains the Russian planning.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Heavy clashes continue in Soledar as the town still refuses to fall to Russian (Wagner) forces. Russia is slowly developing pincers to the north and south of the town in an effort to cutoff Ukrainian logistic support.
Russian forces are reportedly losing ground around the key logistic hub of Kreminna in Luhansk Oblast. More intense fighting also being reported northwest of Svatove.
OUTLOOK ——
The Wagner – Russian MoD soap opera continues as Wagner forces continue to try to sieze Soledar. Heavy propaganda on both sides. It has been estimated that Wagner has lost as many as 13,000 fighters over the past couple weeks in their push to take the village. Most of these would be recently mobilized conscripts likely taken out of prisons.
The current situation has taken Wagner several months to accomplish the forward movement of the LOC about 1 km. Current efforts to surround Soledar appear be slowly bearing fruit and the village may not last under Ukraine control for much longer.
The capture of Soledar would not add that much to the situation in the Donbas or the goal of capturing Bakhmut. Russian (Wagner) forces will be thoroughly bleed out an unable to exploit the success as it would face more Ukrainian defenses in depth.
New Russian changes in command of the Russia forces in Ukraine has a lot of eyebrows raised as well. General ‘Armageddon” replaced after only three months and relegated to a deputy. Watching to see how this will play out. Surovikin was reportedly able to work with Wagner Group leadership. General Gerasimov OTOH has been at war with Wagner group leaders over his poor execution of the war from the kremlin.
Belarus -
Russian Ground Forces commander Salyukov visited Belarus to inspect ‘combat readiness’, the Belarusian defence ministry says - Reuters.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is going to Minsk on January 19. It’s reported that he will take part in the joint board of the MFAs of Belarus and Russia. The last time Lavrov was in Minsk on December 19, when Putin also arrived in Belarus.
OBSERVATION – Many are watching closely for signs that Belarus will join the Ukraine war or if Russia will launch on its own. From the political/military standpoint, Russia is giving a lot of attention on the readiness of Belarus as well as its efforts to integrate both forces together. As mentioned before, this could be a psyop effort to cause Ukraine to maintain forces in the north and not have them available to counter any Russian offensive.
Attack indicators seen in the lead up to Feb 2022’s start of the war are not overwhelmingly present, the progressive build up of Russian forces and even some armor/tanks is gaining more attention.
ASSESSMENT – The possibility of either a Russian/Belarus or a straight Russian attack southward out of Belarus is moving higher, though still considered by many to be unlikely. Current actions are indicative of a build up that would be necessary for any kind of a round two coming out of Belarus. The pressing question is does the Belarus president have the political will to risk a coup and order Belarus military forces to cross the border with its Russian counterparts?